The New England Patriots (1-3) host Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions (1-3) at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots will likely be led by third-string quarterback Bailey Zappe after Mac Jones suffered a significant ankle injury and Brian Hoyer suffered a concussion, while Detroit is hoping running back D'Andre Swift and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown will be available after both missed the team's Week 4 game against the Seahawks. Both teams are looking to bounce back from losses. New England lost to the Green Bay Packers 27-24 in overtime, while the Lions are coming off a 48-45 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. 

New England is favored by 3 points in the latest Patriots vs. Lions odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over/under is set at 46.5 points. Before making any Patriots vs. Lions picks or predictions, you'll want to see what the SportsLine Projection Model is saying.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 5 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 140-105 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is WAY UP!

Now, it has simulated Lions vs. Patriots 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over on the point total, and it also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You absolutely need to see it before locking in your own picks.

So who wins Lions vs. Patriots? And which side of the spread is a must-back? Join SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its NFL picks.