Let them all cook: Fantasy impact of an increase in dropbacks for emerging superstar quarterbacks

Unless you literally just became a fan of the NFL today, you are probably familiar with the phrase "Let Russ Cook." The #LetRussCook movement has existed for years, and it gained even more steam when Pete Carroll did the seemingly unimaginable and let Russ cook against Atlanta in Week 1.

For years, the Seahawks have ranked near the very bottom of the NFL in pass rate, as Pete Carroll seemed insistent on establishing the run. Even though it has been glaringly obvious to anyone watching that Russell Wilson is one of the NFL's best talents at any position, Carroll's old school mentality has stood in the way of him reaching his true potential in his eight seasons prior to 2020.

The dropbacks and pass attempts were both way up for Russ in Week 1, and he erupted for five passing touchdowns against New England on Sunday Night Football in Week 2. As Adam Levitan duly noted, the 'Let Russ Cook' movement is going absolutely nuclear.

There's no way of knowing for sure that Pete Carroll will continue to let Russ cook, but what Mr. Unlimited has been allowed to serve up for us so far has been pretty darn tasty. I think we all -- especially Fantasy owners of Wilson, D.K. Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett -- can agree that we'd like for Russ to continue to be allowed to cook for all 16 games, because he's one of the best chefs in town.

What if I told you that Russ isn't the only chef who expanded his menu in 2020, though?

Russell Wilson finally being unleashed by Seattle is the narrative that has grabbed the most attention, and it seems to have overshadowed what is going on in a few other exciting offenses around the league. Specifically, the Arizona Cardinals and Buffalo Bills seem to be empowering their burgeoning young quarterbacks to achieve new heights in 2020. Russell Wilson is Fantasy's QB1 through two weeks, but Josh Allen (QB2) and Kyler Murray (QB4) are just behind him.

2020: The Year They All Cooked

Fantasy points are nice and all, but they don't tell the whole story. A deeper look at the offensive play volume numbers behind each of these offenses will offer a better illustration of what has changed in 2020 and whether it is a shift in offensive philosophy that we should expect to persist going forward or not.

The key to increased production from each of these quarterbacks has been a spike in dropbacks per game. For most, that has come as a result of a change in offensive philosophy, as a higher percentage of the team's offensive plays have been dropbacks in 2020. Another way to increase the dropbacks is to simply pump the overall offensive volume up by playing at a faster pace. This only works if still able to sustain drives, but this change doesn't require a dip in rushing rate to reach the end result of more total dropbacks per game. We'll examine examples of both types of changes.

Each team's plays per game, dropbacks per game, and dropback rate (the percentage of offensive plays in which the quarterback dropped back to pass) are listed to provide context as to what has changed from 2019 to 2020. The difference between the 2019 and 2020 numbers is in parentheses.

Buffalo Bills

Plays per game -- 70 (+5.4)
Dropbacks per game -- 45 (+7.6)
Dropback rate -- 64.3% (+6.4%)

Two more notable stats: The Bills are fourth (64 percent) in situation neutral pass rate (the percentage of plays that are passes while the score of the game is within six points). In 2019, they had just a 58 percent rate.

Buffalo's pass rate when playing with a lead (59 percent) is what really stands out to me, though. That's the third-highest rate in the NFL, and is up from 43 percent in 2019.

We'll start with the NFL's passing leader through two weeks -- that's right haters, it's Josh Allen! With a league-high 729 passing yards, a 6-0 passing touchdown-to-interception ratio, and a touchdown on the ground to boot, Allen is in the conversation for league MVP after two weeks.

Buffalo has spent the past three seasons surrounding Allen with the talent necessary to be successful, and it appears that the final step necessary in unlocking his full potential -- for Fantasy, at least -- was to go away from their run-heavy ways. In Allen's three years as a starter, the Bills have upped their situation neutral pass rate from 49 percent in 2018, to 58 percent in 2019, and finally to the glorious fourth-ranked 64 percent rate they currently sit at through two weeks. Allen's dropbacks per game has risen from 33, to 36, and again to 45 in 2020.

The change in philosophy resulted in not only Allen's first career 300 yard passing game, but also his first 400 yarder, and he's been able to do this all while still averaging nine rushes per game. As you'll see with Kyler Murray, the increase in dropbacks naturally leads to more scrambles as well, and has really turned these dual threat quarterbacks into Fantasy cheat codes.

This doesn't appear to be a product of game flow, either. You could point to Joe Burrow's league-leading 56 dropbacks per game and cite the fact that Cincinnati has been trailing on 61 percent of their plays, but Allen's Bills have been leading on over 70 percent of their plays. If anything, they should have been expected to be extremely run heavy with matchups against the Jets and Dolphins to start the year. Buffalo's 59 percent pass rate while playing with a lead suggests that the spiked dropbacks and pass attempts for Allen could very well be the result of a change in how the offense operates.

The Pass-Catchers:

I was lower than consensus on Stefon Diggs and John Brown coming into the season, because I wasn't expecting this sort of drastic change in playcalling. However, as their current standing as Fantasy's WR4 and WR9 represent, the ceiling is sky high for these two if the pass volume remains high.

Diggs' insane 37.1 percent target share has to come down. Michael Thomas had a 32 percent target share in 2019, for reference. Still, it's been super encouraging to see Allen locked onto his new top target from the get-go. Both Diggs and Brown already have piled up over 220 air yards, which ranks both of them in the top-10. Allen ranked sixth in average depth of target (aDOT) in 2019, but the run-first offense caused him to rank just 14th in total air yards. Even though his aDOT is down a full yard from his 2019 mark, Allen still ranks fifth in air yards in 2020 because of the massive increase in dropbacks. If this change is as real as it has looked through two games, Diggs profiles as a top-12 Fantasy WR with the upside for a top-three finish. I actually think we'll see the discrepancy between Diggs' 37 percent target share and Brown's 17 percent share even out as the year goes on, which would give Brown the ability to finish as a top-24 Fantasy wideout in this offense.

It's also worth mentioning that Devin Singletary has been much more involved as a pass-catcher with Allen dropping back to throw more often.

He's right up there with some of the best backs in Fantasy (and Myles Gaskin) and could see a big boost in Fantasy value if this type of usage continues going forward. I expected Moss to usurp passing work from Singletary at some point this season, but that hasn't been the case thus far. 

Arizona Cardinals

Plays per game -- 75.5 (+13)
Dropbacks per game -- 47 (+7.3)
Dropback rate -- 62.3% (-1.3%)

One more notable stat: Arizona has upped their pace of play by 22.3 percent from 2019 to 2020. Only the New York Jets -- who have not played with a lead yet this season -- have increased their pace of play as drastically as Arizona in 2020.

Kyler dropped back 51 times in Week 1 and 43 times in Week 2. He averaged 38.8 dropbacks in 2019. He topped 50 just twice all season. 65 percent of Arizona's offensive plays in Week 1 were dropbacks. That number came down to 59 percent in Week 2, but they were winning the game handily from the get-go.

In 2019, Arizona dropped back on just 57% of offensive plays upon acquiring Kenyan Drake. Which should we expect going forward?

Well, there's no way of knowing for sure, but it is interesting that the only other two examples of Arizona dropping back at such a high rate both came early in the 2019 season. Kyler had 59 dropbacks in Week 1 and 55 in Week 3. There was a ton of hype around the Kliff Kingsbury offense heading into 2019, and it's possible that we saw him try to implement it early in the year before scrapping it due to a lack of the necessary personnel. With DeAndre Hopkins now in Arizona and Kyler potentially set to take a step forward, it's possible that Kingsbury's offense will play at a faster pace and pass more often than we saw in 2019. 

Arizona's increase in pace and dropbacks doesn't just mean more targets for Kyler's receivers, it also means more scrambling opportunities. Through two games, Murray has turned 21 rushing attempts into 158 yards and three touchdowns. It is too early to know for sure that this change is permanent, but the fact that it persisted in a game the Cardinals led throughout provides more evidence to support that theory. If it is a real change, Kyler has the makings of a top-three Fantasy QB and might soon be considered every bit as valuable as Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. DeAndre Hopkins should be viewed at as a top-five Fantasy wideout with top-three potential if this type of volume persists, and Christian Kirk is someone to consider buying low on.

The last player I want to highlight for Arizona is running back Chase Edmonds. It is possible that he is available on your waiver wire, and if not, there's a chance that his owner is in a desperate situation due to the recent injuries and doesn't have the luxury of holding a lottery ticket like Edmonds. Whether it is through trade or the waiver wire, you should strongly consider acquiring Chase Edmonds.

The Cardinals have been what we all hoped the Cleveland Browns would be, as they've creatively schemed ways to get both Kenyan Drake and Edmonds on the field. David Johnson is the only running back who has run more routes lined up in the slot or out wide than Edmonds. If anything happens to Kenyan Drake, Edmonds would step into a true three-down role in one of the league's highest-paced offenses.

Seattle Seahawks

Plays per game -- 59 (-5.6)
Dropbacks per game -- 37 (-1.1)
Dropback rate -- 62.7% (+3.7%)

One more notable stat: Seattle ranked 29th in the NFL with a 52 percent situation neutral pass rate in 2019. They're ranked seventh (59 percent) in 2020.

#LetRussCook is the best catchphrase of any of these three teams' 2020 offensive gameplans, but it's actually the one I'm the most skeptical of. I think it really is Seattle's plan to be more aggressive through the air in 2020, but I don't trust Pete Carroll to not revert back to establishing the run if he gets too uncomfortable with the high-flying offense as the season goes on.

The peripheral stats here point toward the change being real. Seattle's overall plays per game are down so far, but the 62.7 percent dropback rate is juicy. If you are ready to trust ole Petey and buy in here, you should target Tyler Lockett.

Metcalf and Wilson have put up monster Fantasy totals, so you aren't likely to get a discount on either player. However, Lockett is just the WR18 through two weeks. His 26.7 percent target share suggests that a massive season is incoming if Seattle remains this pass-heavy.

Two more offenses whose quarterbacks are cooking (but might get burned):

Two more offenses appear to have made a drastic change in offensive philosophy from 2019 to 2020, and each is trusting an inexperienced quarterback to limit mistakes while dropping back at a high rate. The aforementioned teams are the Cincinnati Bengals and New York Giants, who have allowed rookie Joe Burrow and second-year starter Daniel Jones to rank first and third in dropbacks per game. I'm not as confident that these changes are permanent, as neither team has found much success thus far. It's possible that we'll see these coaches scale back the aggressiveness as the year goes on, similar to what we saw from Kingsbury and Arizona in Murray's rookie campaign.

Cincinnati Bengals

Plays per game -- 77.5 (+11.9)
Dropbacks per game -- 56 (+13.6)
Dropback rate -- 72.3% (+7.6%)

Two more notable stats: In 2019, all 32 NFL teams used an offensive formation with five receivers on the field simultaneously just 76 total times. A five-wide set was used just 4.8 total times per week, and that is between all 32 teams! Nine teams did not use a five-wide set once over the entirety of the regular season. Cincinnati has used that formation nine times already in 2020. Only the Dallas Cowboys have used three or more receivers at a higher rate (87 percent) than Cincy (86 percent).

The Bengals are the team I am most skeptical of on this list. As mentioned already, they've been trailing on the majority of offensive possessions, which has definitely affected the outcome. There's no way that Burrow will come close to averaging 56 dropbacks per game this season. Matt Ryan led the NFL with 45.7 per game in 2019, for reference.

Not only is there general regression coming for Cincy's plays and dropbacks per game, it just seems counterintuitive to continue to minimize the impact of their most talented offensive player, Joe Mixon. I hope I'm wrong, though, because what we've seen from Burrow and Cincy's aggressive passing attack through two weeks has been extremely fun.

If you don't think A.J. Green is total dust, you should be trying to buy low on him in Fantasy. His Week 2 performance was really an absolute bottom range of outcomes result, which is clear upon re-watching all of his targets. The real takeaway, to me, is the ridiculous usage Green has seen. He had a 28 percent target share prior to Cincy's final garbage time drive, during which he was mostly on the sideline. Through two games, no player has more air yards than A.J. Green (338). In fact, no one else even has more than 300. Better days should be ahead as Green and Burrow's chemistry grows, especially if Cincinnati continues to allow Burrow to drop back at one of the highest rates in the NFL.

If you do think A.J. Green is total dust, you should add Tee Higgins to your bench. The first pick in the second round played 65 percent of the offensive snaps and was targeted six times in his second pro game and could supplant Green if his struggles persist.

So, yes, I expect Cincinnati's dropbacks average to drop back down to Earth. Burrow could absolutely still rank near the top of the NFL in dropbacks this season, though. Cincy's 72.3 percent dropback rate is the third-highest in the NFL, and their 58 percent pass rate in neutral game scripts ranks in the top-10. The numbers are inflated by game flow, but that could very well be a theme for Cincinnati. They had one of the lowest implied win totals in the NFL entering the season, and their defense was just shredded by Baker Mayfield. The Bengals could find themselves playing from behind in most games this season, and clearly Zac Taylor has no hesitation abandoning the run now that he has his guy at QB.

I ranked Burrow as QB14 going into the season, and I'd comfortably place him inside the top-12 after his first two games. It should not go overlooked that he's rushed 15 times for 65 yards and a touchdown already. If Cincy continues to dropback at one of the highest rates in the NFL, Burrow will continue to scramble frequently. The Bengals could realistically be playing with a lead in Week 3 or 4, so I'll be watching closely to see what the dropback-to-rush ratio looks like if they aren't forced into a pass-heavy gameplan while trailing in either of those games.

New York Giants

Plays per game -- 63 (-0.2)
Dropbacks per game -- 47.5 (+5)
Dropback rate -- 75.4% (+8.2%)

Two more notable stats: The Giants have the second-highest (68 percent) situation neutral pass rate, and that was with Saquon Barkley healthy.

New York also has passed at the NFL's highest rate (83 percent) when in the red zone.

With Saquon Barkley out of the picture, it's possible that we see the Giants as the most pass-heavy team in the NFL this season. I wouldn't have expected this from a Joe Judge and Jason Garrett-led team, so I'm not fully bought in yet. New York has been trailing for 78 percent of their offensive plays, which certainly has skewed their dropback numbers somewhat. But still, they have the second-highest pass rate in the NFL when the score has been within six points. They've thrown at the third-highest rate (67 percent) on first down. This could be real.

Also, like Cincinnati, the Giants should be expected to be playing from behind in most games this season. As long as there is more good than bad with the young Daniel Jones, I'd expect New York to continue to employ a similar offensive philosophy going forward. However, the Giants seem like the team that is most-likely to implode as the season goes on, which could result in their playcalling becoming quite conservative. We've seen teams like Washington, Cincinnati, and Cleveland do this as recently as 2019. If the Giants' playcallers don't subscribe to Herm Edwards' "play to win the game!" philosophy and decide their best option is to "play not to lose," we could see the aggression scaled way back later in the season.

For now, though, expect New York to pass at one of the highest rates in the NFL, which is great news for their pass-catchers. Particularly, Evan Engram and Darius Slayton stand out.

Engram leads all tight ends in routes run and has played at least 94 percent of the offensive snaps in both of New York's games. He has some favorable matchups on the horizon and is an awesome buy-low candidate.

Slayton's only issue in his rookie season was finding the field with any regularity. He's always produced when given the opportunity, and he has logged an 85 and 89 percent snap share in New York's opening games. With Sterling Shepard dealing with a turf toe injury and Golden Tate's hamtring a risk of flaring up at any moment, Slayton is positioned to be one of the best values in Fantasy football at his average draft position. His 20 percent target share is nothing special, but a 35.2 percent air yard share should grab your attention.

DFS Takeaways

These quarterbacks all bring rushing ability and vaulted ceilings if the offensive changes are legit. They're the best types of quarterbacks to target in DFS, and I'll be particularly interested in being ahead of the crowd on using Burrow and Jones in tournaments. I wouldn't expect anyone to be on Jones this weekend, even while facing an injury-riddled San Francisco defense at just $5,500 on DraftKings.

All of these teams other than the Giants are in projected shootouts against beatable defenses in Week 3, and I'll be making variations of stacks with each team. All of the pass-catching options discussed previously stand out as noticeably underpriced this week, outside of DeAndre Hopkins, Stefon Diggs, and A.J. Green. Those three are strong plays in Week 3, they're just priced appropriately, while the Seattle and New York receivers all seem egregiously mispriced. Evan Engram and Drew Sample also are strong values at their price tags on DraftKings.