Kirk Cousins season-ending injury odds fallout: Vikings' playoff chances drop more than 15 percent, per proven model
Despite playing without injured all-world receiver Justin Jefferson, the Minnesota Vikings have won three straight games to get to .500 and save their season for the time being. However, quarterback and free-agent-to-be Kirk Cousins reportedly tore his Achilles tendon during Sunday's victory in Green Bay. The SportsLine Projection Model has downgraded Minnesota's chances of returning to the postseason by 15.4% with Cousins now out for the year.
It's a little ironic that the Vikings may now have to add a quarterback ahead of Tuesday afternoon's trade deadline. It had been highly speculated that Minnesota might consider dealing Cousins by that deadline back when the team was 1-4 and lost Jefferson. The Cousins injury happened in the fourth quarter of Minnesota's 24-10 victory at Lambeau Field on Sunday. As he attempted to step up in the pocket on a third down from the Packers' 22-yard line, Cousins' right leg buckled and he took a sack from Green Bay's Kenny Clark. Cousins hopped off the field without putting weight on his right leg.
Cousins hasn't missed a game due to injury since landing in Minnesota. He missed one in 2019 when the Vikings rested their starters and missed another in 2021 due to COVID. The former Michigan State star gets a lot of grief for his failures in primetime games, but since becoming a full-time starter in 2015, Cousins leads the NFL in QB starts (136), completions (3,225) and passing yards (36,441). The only QB with more passing TDs in that span is Tom Brady.
During the current three-game winning streak, Cousins completed 74% of his passes for 277.7 yards per game with five passing TDs and one pick. On the season, Cousins' 69.5% completion rate is his since 2018, his 291.4 passing yards per game his best since 2016 and his 2.25 passing TDs per game a career best.
Minnesota is 1.5 games behind Detroit (5-2) in the NFC North, with the Lions expected to win Monday night against Las Vegas to retake a two-game lead. The Vikings and Lions haven't played yet. Minnesota is in Atlanta this Sunday, which might be making a QB move of its own with Desmond Ridder struggling.
Jaren Hall, a fifth-round rookie from BYU, relieved Cousins against the Packers, but Minnesota head coach Kevin O'Connell said he was not yet ready to commit to a starter in Cousins' absence. Veteran journeyman Nick Mullens is on injured reserve and not eligible to be activated until Week 10. Veteran Sean Mannion is on the practice squad. Former Vikings starter Case Keenum could be had from Houston, as he's the third string there. How about a trade for the Cowboys' Trey Lance? He's from Minnesota and could be a long-term option for the future.
DraftKings lists Minnesota at +230 to make the playoffs and -290 to miss. It is +850 to win the NFC North. The Viking have an updateda win total of 7.5, with the Under a -130 favorite. Below are the SportsLine Projection Model's updated simulations.
| MINNESOTA | WINS | WIN% | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | CONF | CHAMP |
| w/ Cousins | 8.3 | 48.80% | 16.30% | 37.80% | 1.80% | 0.60% |
| w/o Cousins | 7.4 | 43.50% | 7.70% | 22.40% | 0.50% | 0.10% |
| Difference | -0.9 | -5.30% | -8.60% | -15.40% | -1.30% | -0.50% |
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