Kansas City Chiefs Schedule 2020 -- NFL Betting Analysis

When the Chiefs take the field Week 1 vs. Houston, Kansas City will be without five starters from last year's Super Bowl champions. Two left in free agency, while guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif and running back Damien Williams opted out, and cornerback Bashaud Breeland was suspended for the first four games for an off-field incident back in the spring. However, the Chiefs still have QB Patrick Mahomes, who got a record-breaking 12-year, $503 million extension this offseason. 

Is it truly a deal worth $503 million and over 12 years? Not really, as NFL contracts are always misleading and "only" $141 million is guaranteed -- then because of injury. It's closer to a six-year $183 million extension. Still, it's a precedent-setting contract that will make every good QB in the NFL a bit richer down the line. 

Kansas City finished an NFL-best 13-5-1 against the spread (72 percent) last year, capped by a 9-0 ATS heater culminating in the Super Bowl 54 comeback win over San Francisco.

Remarkably, the Chiefs got down 24-0 to the Texans in the Divisional Playoffs and still covered 10.5 points with ease (51-31). Because of performances like that, K.C. will deal with inflated spreads and totals throughout the 2020 NFL schedule.

The Chiefs' offense could be even more dynamic this season, with former LSU running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the fold. He will be the featured back with Williams sitting out. 

Consider backing the Chiefs (-10) over Houston in the NFL Kickoff Game. The defending Super Bowl champ is 9-1 ATS in Week 1 when facing a team that had fewer than 12 wins the previous regular season.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS BETTING PROFILE             

2019 record: 12-4, (first in AFC West)

2019 against the spread: 13-5-1 ATS

2019 ATS margin: +4.8

2019 Over-Under: 10-9 O-U

2020 strength of schedule: T-18th-toughest; Chiefs opponents combined for a .500 winning percentage last year (128-128).

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WILLIAM HILL 2020 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS FUTURES ODDS

Win total: 11.5 (Over -130)

To finish with NFL's best regular-season record: +400

To make playoffs: Yes -1400 (shortest odds in NFL), no +800

Division: -450 to win AFC West

Conference: +270 to win AFC

Super Bowl: +550 to win SB 55

MVP: QB Patrick Mahomes +350 (favorite), WR Tyreek Hill +25000, TE Travis Kelce +30000

Defensive POY: DE Chris Jones +5000, S Tyrann Mathieu +6600, DE Frank Clark +10000   

Offensive ROY: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire +350

SportsLine Model's projection: 11.5 wins (Under)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS GAME-BY-GAME BETTING TRENDS

Week 1 vs. Houston, 8:20 p.m. ET (TNF): Defending Super Bowl champs are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 season openers.

Week 2 at LA Chargers, 4:25 p.m. ET: The Chiefs are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven division road games, plus they've covered six straight visits to the Chargers.

Week 3 at Baltimore, 8:15 p.m. ET (MNF): The Chiefs are 7-0-1 ATS the week after visiting the Chargers.

Week 4 vs. New England, 4:25 p.m. ET: The Chiefs are 0-8 ATS after playing the Ravens.

Week 5 vs. Las Vegas, 1 p.m. ET: The Chiefs have won seven straight home meetings, going 6-1 ATS.

Week 6 at Buffalo, 8:20 p.m. ET (TNF): The Under is 7-0 the week after K.C. hosts the Raiders.

Week 7 at Denver, 4:25 p.m. ET: The Chiefs are 5-0 SU and ATS in their past five visits to Denver.

Week 8 vs. NY Jets, 1 p.m. ET: K.C. 5-2 SU and ATS in its last seven home games vs. AFC East foes.

Week 9 vs. Carolina, 1 p.m. ET: The Chiefs are just 11-12-2 ATS in their last 25 games versus the NFC.

Week 10: Bye

Week 11 at Las Vegas, 8:20 p.m. ET (SNF): In contrast to Andy Reid's success off a bye in Philly, the Chiefs are 2-7-1 ATS after a bye since Reid took over in 2013.

Week 12 at Tampa Bay, 4:25 p.m. ET: The Chiefs are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings.

Week 13 vs. Denver, 8:20 p.m. ET (SNF): Kansas City has won four straight home meetings (3-1 ATS), with three of those victories by double digits.

Week 14 at Miami, 1 p.m. ET: The Chiefs are 3-7 SU and 3-6-1 ATS in their past 10 visits to Miami.

Week 15 at New Orleans, 4:25 p.m. ET: The Chiefs are 15-8 ATS in non-conference games over the past three seasons.

Week 16 vs. Atlanta, 1 p.m. ET: The Over has cashed in five straight meetings.

Week 17 vs. LA Chargers, 1 p.m. ET: Andy Reid is 27-3 straight-up versus AFC West foes over the past five years, and the Chiefs have covered 10 of their past 13 division games.

Some trends contributed by SDQL Gurus 

EXPERT PICK FROM NO. 1 NFL EXPERT MIKE TIERNEY: Under 11.5 wins (+120)

For the most part, the Chiefs stood pat this offseason. Hard to blame a defending champion for doing so, but more fresh blood might have contributed to a cure for a Super Bowl hangover. A late-season swing of five games includes four on the road, three in warm-weather locales (Las Vegas, Tampa, Miami), so the Chiefs could be tested physically. Not storing up wins before those tests could dash any chance of an Over.

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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS SCHEDULE NOTES

Kansas City's road slate is tougher than its home schedule. The Chiefs visit Baltimore, Buffalo and New Orleans, with the Ravens and Bills games accounting for two of K.C.'s five primetime contests.

Based on Vegas win totals, the Chiefs' schedule is tied for eighth-easiest.

The first four weeks will be pivotal: vs. Houston, at LA Chargers, at Baltimore, vs. New England. Those teams went a combined 40-24 last year.