Justin Jefferson to injured reserve odds fallout: Vikings star now longshot for NFL Offensive Player of Year, Minnesota's Week 6 spread vs. Bears drops

The Minnesota Vikings were one of the luckiest teams in NFL history last year. They won a league-record 11 one-score games en route to the NFC North title. All that 2022 good fortune has not spilled over into 2023, as the Vikings are 1-4 – all one-score games – and now have lost superstar receiver and reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year Justin Jefferson for at least the next four games to a hamstring injury. The star wideout has been placed on injured reserve. Once -3.5 for Week 6 in Chicago, the Vikings are now -2.5 per the SportsLine consensus.

Jefferson left Sunday's 27-20 home loss to Kansas City and didn't return. Today, the team put him on IR, meaning he will not be back until at least Week 10's game against the Saints – and Minnesota might well be 1-8 by then. The Vikings face a potential loss Sunday in Chicago and then tough games vs. San Francisco, at Green Bay and at Atlanta. How much will Jefferson rush back if the team is well under .50, and if he's still upset at not receiving the biggest WR contract extension ever?

It's not hyperbole to say that Jefferson might be the most important offensive player in the NFL outside of the quarterback position when it comes to oddsmakers. He's certainly the most important player from a Fantasy perspective. Last year, Jefferson led the league with 184 targets, 128 catches and 1,809 yards to go with eight scores. This season, he has 53 targets with 36 catches, 571 yards and three scores.

The former LSU star is tied with Randy Moss for second-most receiving yards (5,396) through four career seasons in NFL history, behind only the Saints' Michael Thomas (5,512). Since entering the NFL as the No. 22 overall pick in 2020 out of LSU, Jefferson has played all 55 games, making him the first receiver in NFL history to play 50 games through three seasons. He's led the league in routes run (2,033) and is second among receivers in offensive snaps (3,117) behind Washington's Terry McLaurin.

Jefferson had been a +550 second favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year again entering Week 5 but is now a +5000 longshot – San Francisco's Christian McCaffrey is the +150 favorite. Jefferson was among the favorites to lead the league in receiving yards and catches, too, but those props are currently off the board. Minnesota now has an Over/Under season win total of 6.5 with the Over a slight favorite. It is +350 to make the playoffs and -500 for no. 

What might this mean for Kirk Cousins? The trade rumors (to the Jets?) will only intensify with Cousins set for free agency after this year, but he does have a no-trade clause. The trade deadline is Halloween, which is well before Jefferson's expected return.

Cousins averages 10.3 yards per attempt on 518 Jefferson targets since 2020, the highest YPA for a QB-target combo since 2020 (minimum of 200 attempts). Cousins averages 7.0 yards per attempt to all other players in that stretch.

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