Jrue Holiday trade to Celtics odds fallout: Boston now in dead heat with Milwaukee as NBA title favorite, but proven model not as optimistic

We knew Portland was going to flip veteran All-Star guard Jrue Holiday after acquiring him from Milwaukee in the Damian Lillard trade, but the Trail Blazers truly didn't waste any time as Holiday was sent back to the Eastern Conference on Sunday and is now a member of the Boston Celtics. That has shifted the Celtics into the +400 co-favored role to win the 2024 NBA title at DraftKings with the Bucks, but the SportsLine Projection Model believes Boston got slightly worse because it also included starting center Robert Williams in the deal.

The Celtics sent out Williams, guard Malcolm Brogdon (the 2023 NBA Sixth Man of the Year), a 2024 first-round pick via Golden State and a 2029 first-round pick to Portland.

Last season was arguably Holiday's best in the NBA as he averaged 19.3 points, 7.4 rebounds, 5.1 rebounds (career high) and 2.4 made 3-pointers (also a career high) per game. Holiday was named to another NBA All-Defensive Team. His five such selections since 2017-18 are tied for the most in the league with former Defensive Players of the Year Rudy Gobert and Draymond Green.

Two of the four guards named to last season's NBA All-Defensive Teams will now play for Boston, as Derrick White made the Second Team. Brogdon is a good player and is younger than Holiday, but there's no doubt that Holiday is an upgrade currently. If Boston had given up just Brogdon and draft picks in this deal, the SportsLine Projection Model would have improved the Celtics from 53.4 wins to 53.6 next season and improved their title odds by 2.1%

However, the model has downgraded Boston for including Williams, one of the true game-changers in the paint with his shot-blocking and rebounding. The hyper-athletic big man averaged 8.0 points on 74.7% shooting last year along with 8.3 rebounds and 1.4 blocks in just 23.5 minutes per night. Williams generally played a big role in defending Giannis Antetokounmpo when the Celtics faced the Bucks – those two teams appear to be on a collision course for the Eastern Conference Finals.

Boston's depth certainly took a hit in trading two rotation players for one, and the Celitcs are now quite thin after their excellent top six of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Holiday, White, Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis (who cost former NBA Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart in a trade). They are especially thin up front with Horford at age 37 and frankly not capable of playing more than 65-70 games and Porzingis' injury history.

The model now drops Boston from 53.4 wins to 51.6 and lessens its title chances by 0.5%. The Celtics open their season on Oct. 25 at the Knicks and first face the Bucks on Nov. 22 in Boston. 

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