Joe Mixon Fantasy football ranking: 2020 outlook, projections, ADP, value, predictions, stats

It might be hard to believe, but Joe Mixon is still just 23 years old. He has had a fairly tumultuous three-year career so far, which is par for the course for most players selected by the Cincinnati Bengals during that time. Despite missing two games, Mixon finished as the RB10 in Fantasy and led the AFC in rushing in 2018. At times he has looked like one of the best rushers in the NFL, but nagging injuries and one of the NFL's worst offensive systems has prevented Mixon from putting it all together. Where should he be in your 2020 Fantasy football rankings, and what Joe Mixon Fantasy football outlook can you expect?

Even while running behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, Mixon has topped 1,000 yards rushing in back to back seasons. He's shown flashes as a receiver, but Cincinnati has enough weapons to continue to limit Mixon's contributions in the passing game. Without any projectable increase in targets coming, Mixon's rushing contributions will have to exceed what we have seen from him to date for him to live up to his first-round cost in Fantasy drafts. Is that possible with Cincinnati's offense looking better than we've ever seen in Mixon's career? Absolutely. Is using a top-10 Fantasy selection to bet on the Bengals putting things together worth the risk -- especially with Mixon potentially on the verge of a holdout? That question is much more difficult to answer confidently.

The 2020 Joe Mixon Fantasy football value remains strong, as he's set for another 1,000-yard campaign. He's a first-round candidate in most formats, but how high should he be in your 2020 Fantasy football rankings? Here's what you need to know:

So which players are poised for breakouts, which sleepers do you need to jump on, and which busts should you avoid at all costs in your Fantasy football league? Join SportsLine now to get early 2020 Fantasy football rankings, plus see which WR is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.

Joe Mixon Fantasy ADP & ranking (via SportsLine's projection model)

No. 8.9 ADP
No. 9 RB (non-PPR)
No. 7 RB (PPR)

Joe Mixon Fantasy projections (via SportsLine's projection model) 

270 rushing attempts, 1,065 rushing yards, 8.9 rushing touchdowns, 43.9 targets, 36 receptions, 282 receiving yards, 2.5 receiving TDS
198.9 Fantasy points (non-PPR); 234.9 (PPR)

Joe Mixon 2020 Fantasy outlook 

Mixon saw a career-high 278 carries in his third year in the league, yet his rushing totals fell from 1,168 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2018 to 1,137 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2019. His steep drop-off in per-rush efficiency could be attributed to Mixon regressing to the mean after a remarkably efficient 2018 as a rusher -- but if making that assumption, understand that the drop-off had very little to do with Mixon as a player. In fact, there are several data points that would suggest Mixon improved as a rusher in his third pro season.

Mixon had a significantly higher PFF elusiveness rating in 2019 (61.5) than in 2018 (35.6), and he broke three-times as many tackles in 2019. His yards after contact per attempt was identical in 2018 and 2019, but his yards before contact is where some light can really be shed on the discrepancy in Mixon's year-to-year rushing efficiency.

Among players with at least 200 carries, only Leonard Fournette (1.4) and Le'Veon Bell (1.2) had a lower average yards before contact than Mixon (1.8) in 2019. In 2018, Mixon averaged 2.7 yards before contact. With his advanced stats pointing towards Mixon still being among the league's elite rushers, uncovering results that match the advanced stats might be as simple as surrounding him with a better supporting cast.

On paper, the Bengals have done as much could be expected to improve the supporting cast. The offensive line has been overhauled over the past two seasons, the receiving corps has a healthy A.J. Green returning and is full of young talent behind him, and most importantly, the most-hyped QB prospect in years will be at the helm. There is plenty of reason for optimism, and if the pieces click into place, a monster rushing season could be coming for Mixon. If you combine his 2019 rushing volume with his 2018 rushing efficiency, Mixon is a top-five Fantasy RB. The downside is there with holdout rumors floating around and a rookie QB running the offense, but the same can be said for any running back being selected outside of the top-five.