Jimmy Garoppolo injury fallout: 49ers futures odds lengthen with Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy at quarterback
Do you remember who Mr. Irrelevant -- the last player off the board -- was in the 2022 NFL Draft? That would be Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy, chosen No. 262 overall by the San Francisco 49ers. He is now the starting quarterback of an otherwise Super Bowl-caliber roster after Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a season-ending broken foot in Sunday's win over the Miami Dolphins. The SportsLine Projection Model has downgraded the Niners with that news, but not as much as you might think.
Garoppolo wasn't the Niners' starting QB to begin this season. The team had pushed him aside for Trey Lance, who suffered a broken ankle in Week 2. Head coach Kyle Shanahan has already made it clear Lance will not be coming to the rescue. Garoppolo has likely now played his last game for the franchise but surely made himself some money as a free-agent-to-be. Over his past five starts, he completed nearly 72% of his passes, averaged 8.0 yards per attempt and threw eight touchdown passes without a pick. The 70.8 QBR he posted good for eighth-best in football.
"Football is football, and the plan is going to be the plan," said trade acquisition Christian McCaffrey. "It's going to be on us to execute every single play (as an offense)."
Purdy was quite solid in relief Sunday, completing 25 of 37 passes for 210 yards with two TDs and a pick. Keep in mind that the Dolphins had no film on the former Cyclone. That will not be the case this Sunday when the 49ers host Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs will be operating on a short week after hosting New Orleans on Monday night.
The SportsLine Projection Model drops the Niners from 11.3 wins to 11.0 with Garoppolo out and their chances of winning the NFC from 21.7% to 17.8% Caesars Sportsbooks has the Niners at +380 to win the NFC, which equates to 20.8%. San Francisco is +900 to win the Super Bowl.
No team has ever won a Super Bowl with a quarterback who opened the season third on the depth chart. Four teams (2016 Patriots, 2010 Steelers, 2005 Steelers, Washington in 1987) have had three different QBs start multiple games for them and still reach the Super Bowl, but of those, all four had their true starter back for the Super Bowl itself.
| SAN FRANCISCO | WIN | WIN% | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | CONF | CHAMP |
| w/ Jimmy Garoppolo | 11.3 | 66.50% | 73.40% | 99.10% | 21.70% | 10.80% |
| w/ Brock Purdy | 11 | 64.70% | 68.70% | 98.50% | 17.80% | 8.10% |
| Difference | -0.3 | -1.80% | -4.70% | -0.60% | -3.90% | -2.70% |
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