There are ample reasons to pick apart Thursday Night Football, and heaven knows there have been plenty of games this season with minimal appeal and scant playoff implications. When the schedule came out, Week 16 may have appeared to be another such matchup.

But not so fast.

Now, Jaguars at Jets is an elimination game of sorts, with the loser facing much tougher odds of reaching the postseason. It's an opportunity for Jacksonville to show if its recent surge can continue against a top defense on a short week on the road. For the Jets it's an opportunity to reverse their recent slide and reclaim their season, with that 6-3 start feeling like it came ages ago. It's a national window for Trevor Lawrence in primetime at the height of his powers, while the QB selected one pick after him in 2021 has one last chance to show some level of competence as the locker room and fanbase eagerly await the return of Mike F'n White from injury.

All in all, we could do far worse than this, my friends. It's made all the more inviting by the proposition of a rare, standalone, prime time Pick 'Em. Let's go!

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Spread: Jaguars PK

I am buying what Doug Pederson and Trevor Lawrence are selling. I am buying this outfit to unseat the Titans for the AFC South title (+125). While New York will present a stout front and very real challenges to this ascending offense, I like Jacksonville in this spot. The Jaguars have a far better quarterback. The y have a far more seasoned coach and a far better injury report. I don't expect Quinnen Williams to play in this game, either, which is part of the reason I loved the Lions so much at the Jets on Sunday. New York's pressure rates and run fits aren't close to the same without him, and while Sauce Gardner is awesome, Jacksonville deploys a multi-pronged passing attack that is anything but reliant on any one individual pass-catcher. Jacksonville presents matchup issues and Lawrence is the top-rated passer in the NFL over the last six weeks. While this won't be the shootout we saw against Dallas, I don't see the Jets being able to muster more than 17 points despite the Jags' defensive woes. You have to complete more than 55% of your passes to win games against quality opponents in the NFL. Inly one of these teams has a QB able to do so.

Total: Under 37

I don't like this as much as I like playing Under on the Jets team total (more on that in a minute), but I will lean into it. I'm smelling 20-14 Jags, which doesn't leave much wiggle room, and I hope you got in early in the week when some shops were as high as 41.5. Jets Unders are 9-5, and while the Jaguars have gone Over in four in a row, they haven't faced a defense this airtight in that span. I'm not sure the Jags can run the ball much here, and I figure Pederson will embrace screens to Travis Etienne to keep drives going. But I'm not sure either team will play with a ton of tempo and Robert Saleh, a defensive-minded head coach, has to play this not-to-lose given the limitations of his quarterback and how much is at stake from a postseason perspective. I foresee plenty of hand-offs. The Jets will just try to burn the clock and keep this hot Jags offense on the sidelines on a cold night.

Jets Team Total Under 18.5 (-105)

Injuries have mounted. The quarterback carousel has done the Jets no favors. This Jaguars secondary has been pretty opportunistic lately and we know Wilson is totally up for playing the role of a double agent. The magnitude of this situation probably won't bring out the best in him and I am banking on turnovers being a storyline in this game. Lawrence has 14 TDs to one turnover the last six weeks after struggling with fumbling in particular in the first half of the season. 

Here's the Jets scoring totals in their last six games Wilson has started: 17, 3, 20, 17, 16, 27 (including a blocked punt TD and a Braxton Berrios 20-yard run). When Wilson is contained in the pocket he is arguably the worst starting – or quasi-starting – QB in the NFL, and the Jaguars' ends will act accordingly. They'll rush him and force him to throw in the pocket.

Jaguars to Win the Fourth Quarter (+114)

Lawrence has his fair share of troubles in the fourth quarter for much of this season but is brimming with confidence and playing his best football there now. Over the last six weeks he has a sterling 118.5 rating in the fourth quarter, completing an astounding 76% of his passes. If, like me, you think this is a tight, low-scoring game (and the pick 'em and low total indicate as much), this is when the quarterback imbalance tends to show up the most. Under intense pressure. Lawrence also has the far better supporting cast around him. The Clemson product has authored some signature late drives lately and I am banking on another one here.

Same-Game Parlay (+650)

• Jaguars moneyline
• Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 Passing TDs
• Evan Engram anytime TD

Player Props

(Keep an eye out for Travis Etienne reception props when they post – I think he catches at least three balls in this game and can get 30-plus receiving yards)

Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+126)

The Jets have allowed just 13 passing TDs all season. I am well aware. But Lawrence is averaging more than two per game over the last six weeks. He has Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram all in great form and Etienne can win in the passing game, too. Doug Pederson will let his best player make the plays to win the game against a defense that will be tough to run on even without Williams. But without that premier DT collapsing the pocket, the pass rush just isn't he same and that will be the difference in this game.

Evan Engram Anytime TD (+215)

The Jets had been airtight against tight ends in the red zone all year, but have suddenly allowed a scoring pass to one in each of the last two weeks. Engam's body type is something Lawrence will lean into in tight spaces. He has 25 targets the last two weeks alone.

CJ Uzomah Anytime TD (+625)

I'll sprinkle a lil somethin-somethin here. Wilson has just six TD passes all season; four are to tight ends and two went to Uzomah last week. I think he will latch on to whatever is happens to be working and try to replicate. I also like Tyler Conklin here at +390.

Garrett Wilson Over 4.5 Receptions (-108) 

The Jets can't find a way to get Garrett Wilson in the end zone with any regularity, but he should get plenty of targets in this game. You have to get your playmaker as involved as possible. He's gone Over this mark in three of the last four games.

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