The bye is here. Hooray.

I actually don't mind it a bit. I like honing in on fewer games now that we have a body of work to judge and analyze, and I do find myself liking a fair amount of action in Week 6. I continue to find myself drawn to the year of the under – still hitting at 57% - and could even see some games that look explosive at face value, especially those involving AFC West teams, to actually come in under as well.

• More Week 6 picks: Model | Hartstein | Pick 'em | Survivor | Props | DFS

There is at least one moneyline prospect that caught my attention as well.

49ers -5.5 at Falcons

Atlanta has surprised some people and had some wild comebacks and shifts in game flow, but this is still a very flawed team. Marcus Mariota is incredibly limited and they are without their best offensive player (Cordarrelle Patterson). This defense ranks 23rd in yards per play, doesn't get pressure, and stinks on third down. Jimmy Garoppolo is rounding into form and getting regular practice and playing time after a lost offseason. The 49ers spending the week on the East Coast after dismantling the Panthers will serve them well. San Francisco's defense is the best in football (12 points per game and four yards per play) and it will smother Mariota with pressure. The 49ers have won two straight games by 14 or more points and are about to start playing their most balanced ball of the season.

Additional Bet: I also really like Atlanta Under 19.5 points (-120)

Patriots +2.5 at Browns

I'm fine with Bailey Zappe here. The Patriots can run the ball and win this game. The Browns run defense is horrible and they don't have competent defensive tackles. Even without Damien Harris, Bill Belichick will attack them there and control the clock. New England has the better defense and all of a sudden former Patriot Jacoby Brissett is turning the ball over. The Browns have big names on defense but they aren't generating pressure or big plays. Kevin Stefanski is 6-15 against the spread as a favorite and 7-13 ATS at home, and I love Belichick getting points against his old team. So… if you are so inclined, also look at New England Moneyline +118

Cowboys +6.5 at Eagles

It's been fun watching this rise. Dallas is 17-5 ATS since the start of last year, the best mark in football, and continues to get disrespected. I love the KISS offensive philosophy with Cooper Rush, and it will serve them well here. The Eagles crush teams in the second quarter but have been fairly pedestrian offensively outside of that. They're facing a truly elite defense here. Jalen Hurts has struggled under pressure and this will be the biggest test of Phlly's stout offensive line yet. The Eagles have also been vulnerable to backdoor covers and nearly blew it entirely last week. This is just too many points for me to turn down in what I expect to be a close game that leans to the Under.

Jaguars at Colts Under 42

These two teams couldn't top 24 points a few weeks ago in Jacksonville. Both defenses have largely impressed since then while both offenses continue to struggle mightily. Trevor Lawrence and Matt Ryan are turning the ball over a ton. The Colts have played all Under games this season, and 10 straight dating back to last year. Indianapolis averages just 15.8 points per game, while Jacksonville has amassed 27 total points over their last two with Lawrence shrinking. The Jaguars have lost 13 straight divisional games on the road and stink in the fourth quarter, so I don't see a late flurry if they trail.

Additional Bet: Colts to win the fourth quarter +106

Bills at Chiefs First Half Under 27

This might be another shootout between two of the highest-scoring teams in the NFL, but I suspect it starts slowly and builds. Lots of Chiefs games do, as last week's with the Raiders did, and so did the epic playoff game between these teams a few months back with tons of late quick-strike scoring. But the Bills defense is truly elite and Leslie Frazier's zone scheme is the stuff that's toughest on Mahomes. And while the Chiefs pass defense stinks, they do run the fourth most Cover-2 in the NFL and Josh Allen has just a 77.7 rating against Cover-2 this season. Steve Spagnuolo tones down the blitz stuff, which Allen kills, right? And both of these teams are top-six in second-half scoring but are not as prolific in the first half. They very well may get over that 54 points for the game, but I like this aspect of the contest.

Teaser: Patriots +8.5 - 49ers PK

Same-Game Parlay: 49ers at Falcons (+550)

• 49ers Over 25.5 Team Total
• George Kittle Over 44.5 Yards
• Under 45.5 Alt Total 

Player Props of the Week

Aaron Rodgers Longest Pass Under 34.5 Yards (-113)

The Jets generate solid pressure without bringing numbers, they play more quarters coverage that most NFL teams and have held QBs to a 62.1 rating with five sacks out of it. Just 11% of Rodgers's passes travel even 25 yards or more – second-lowest in NFL – and against quarters he averages just 4.13 air yards per attempt. It's all been dink and dunk lately and I don't see a lot of deep shots here as the Packers try to get their running backs more involved.

George Kittle Over 44.5 Yards (-135)

He got over his total quickly last week and I bet does so again here. Still leaning low because of the slow start, but the team's QB play is better now. The Falcons are allowing a 75% completion rate to tight ends and over eight yards per attempt with them (25th). Their pass defense in general is poor and this will be a matchup problem and a connection Jimmy G wants to get cranking again.

George Pickens Anytime TD (+245)

Kenny Pickett has gotten his fellow rookie going and the Steelers will keep trying to push the ball downfield. Yes, this is a good Buccaneers pass defense, but I also see some garbage time possibility here. Pickens has 12 touches the last two games after barely getting a look from benched QB Mitch Trubisky, with 10 first downs and 16 targets – second on the team in that span. He is a natural playmaker and this is a deep receiving group, so it's not like he gets all the attention. It's only a matter of time until he hits pay dirt and this number won't be this high for long.

Mike Evans Anytime TD (+107)

This is Tom Brady's go-to guy and Pittsburgh's pass defense has suffered badly. Since he came back from injury, Evans has 18 targets in two games and the Steelers have allowed nine TDs to wide receivers -- and the most passing yards to receivers in the NFL.

Saquon Barkley Over 104.5 Total Yards (-117)

This provides better value than some of the other Barkley props. What we know is the Giants run the entire offense through him and Daniel Jones scrambling, and the Ravens have had major issues stopping the run and defending running backs in the passing game. They are devoid of coverage linebackers and Brian Daboll is fighting hard to get Barkley in favorable matchups in the slot split out wide and in the backfield. He has nearly 100 more touches than anybody else on the team and three times as many scrimmage yards. The personnel situation remains bleak for the Giants at other positions with injuries and the like. He will be force-fed and he will be effective.

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