As I wrote in this space a week ago, the Under is our friend. It's not going away anytime soon.

Unders are now 29-18-1 on the season. We have seen them hit with great regularity in the primetime window, and even when some of the best quarterbacks in league history get together in the same game. Many offenses are struggling, play has been choppy and even as these numbers come down in many places, I just don't think they are low enough.

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So we are going to lean into this trend, yet again.

Bills -3 at Ravens

Don't let what Lamar Jackson is doing distract you from the fact the the Ravens still can't play a lick of defense. Mac Jones and Tua Tagovailoa moved the ball all over the place on them, and while a year ago they were 32nd against the pass (they still are) and allowed the most big plays (they still do), at least then they could stuff the run. Now they can't do that either, and big free agent signing Michael Pierce is now out for the year. The Bills have the NFL's top defense in yards per game and they are in the top five in yards per pass and yards per carry. They get immense pressure without even blitzing -- they do so at by far the lowest rate in the league. Jackson has been killing the blitz but he isn't quite as good against nickel and dime packages. The Bills live in that stuff. The last time Ravens left tackle Ronnie Stanley played football – Week 1 of last season – it was horrific. Now he gets Von Miller in his return from a second round of major ankle procedures. And Baltimore is no longer strong at home, losing four straight dating back to last year.

Rams at 49ers Under 42.5

I'm not sure that another few days of practice is going to cure everything ailing the 49ers offense right now. Jimmy Garappolo looks rough. Deebo Samuel is barely showing up. The San Francisco offense has been really bad when injured left tackle Trent Williams doesn't play, and the run game wasn't special even with him. The 49ers defense might be the best in football and it's Nick Bosa against a revamped Rams line. The Under is 5-1 in games involving these teams this season and they last met in the NFC title game and combined for 37 points. Both quarterbacks throw picks. The Rams have tended to wane some in the second half. This looks like an ugly divisional primetime game to me, as if we haven't seen enough of them already.

Jets at Steelers Under 41.5

You talk to people around the NFL about what's up with the Steelers, and they'll tell you Pittsburgh still has a very good defense without T.J. Watt. It's just that the unit was gassed too much through three weeks and on the field too long. Well, guess who had 10 days to rest up for this? Say what you want about Joe Flacco's lack of mobility, but he is a better QB than Zach Wilson and Wilson missed a lot of time in camp, the preseason and regular season. He will turn the ball over, and the Steelers excel in that regard. The Jets defensive line hasn't been what they hoped it would be in terms of pressure, but I'm not buying the Steelers offense, either. Hence the Under.

Patriots at Packers Under 40.5

Aaron Rodgers got a lot of attention during his postgame interview after another Under game last Sunday for alluding to something he saw on the JumboTron. Whatever. We should be focusing on him coming right out and saying the Packers were playing to get to 21 points, because of their defense and run game. They didn't get there. They still won. This is about leaning on their running backs and grinding it out, not gaudy stats. They aren't trying to be prolific and it's a plodding approach. New England will run a ton with Brian Hoyer likely starting and the Packers are poor at stopping the ground game (5.4 per carry). The spread is too extreme given the limitations of the Green Bay attack, and Bill Belichick will sit back and play coverage after getting crushed trying to blitz Lamar Jackson a week ago. Rodgers isn't running anywhere.

Eagles to Win by 1-6 Points

They are at home against a Jaguars team that is respectable enough. Duly noted. And Philadelphia covering 6.5, given how they have lagged in the second half, and given how well Jacksonville has played (and with the Doug Pederson revenge game), seems steep. But Philly is the better team and the Jags haven't seen anything like this Philly offense yet. This is going to be a hostile environment for Trevor Lawrence. Also, the Eagles have destroyed teams in the second quarter; it's pretty much when they do all their damage. You can get the second quarter to be the highest-scoring quarter at +135. 

Cardinals at Panthers First Quarter Tie (+290)

I did a deep dive for The Washington Post on Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray and their terrible first quarters and poor game scripts. It's brutal. The Panthers offense has started games almost as slowly and Christian McCaffrey is banged up again. These are two slow-starting teams with not much going for them. This game being 0-0 or 3-3 after 15 minutes would not shock me at all. The over/under is 7.5, but pays just -115. Neither offensive staff seems to trust much of what they are doing and their teams aren't prepared to go out and score points.

Same-Game Parlay: "What Would Al Davis Do?"

Derek Carr Over 24.5 Completions, Davante Adams Over 78.5 Receiving Yards, Adams Anytime TD (+480)

The Raiders have owned the Broncos lately. This is must-win territory for Las Vegas. The new head coach is a longtime offensive coordinator. And after force-feeding Davante Adams in Week 1, the new WR1 has been a spectator the last few weeks. That can't continue. They made the trade and gave Adams huge money for a reason. Yeah, Denver has a stud cornerback. I don't care. Derek Carr can't keep ignoring his college buddy in the red zone -- or anywhere else. I dabbled with taking the Raiders on the moneyline (covering has been a problem), but decided to go with the above legs for my parlay.

Player Props of the Week

Jamaal Williams Anytime Touchdown

This was on the board earlier in the week but isn't now, with the D'Andre Swift injury probably to blame. Still, Seattle stinks on defense and allows almost five yards per rush, and the Lions offense has hummed along with Swift not carrying much of a load the last two weeks. Williams has four rushing TDs and gets fed around the endzone. Seattle has allowed the third-most rushing TDs. Dan Campbell loves to play hammerhead football. Williams has been cashing with regularity.

Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+118)

I don't think he can do enough to overcome the mismatch of Josh Allen vs. Baltimore's defense, and Leslie Frazier will sit back and play zone and do whatever possible to take away big plays. He never plays man; and Jackson's huge runs usually come against man. But Jackson does lead the NFL with 10 passing TDs. He is crushing it in the red zone and spreading the ball around. I see a lot of value here. Keep an eye on the weather, but if that's not a major issue I like this prop.

Amari Cooper Anytime Touchdown (+145)

Jacoby Brissett is flinging it. Well, certainly more than many thought. He is among the NFL leaders in early-down play action efficiency, and with the league's best running attack at his disposal it's no surprise. Cooper is benefitting the most from that. The Falcons might be asking too much of AJ Terrell with their scheme. Atlanta is a bottom-tier team in opposing QB rating. They've allowed seven passing TDs (tied for third-most). I like the early looks from Cooper in Kevin Stefanski's offense and this could be another shootout -- Atlanta seems to be involved in them.

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