It feels a little sad to not be previewing and handicapping a Thursday night NFL game in this space. Even a really crappy one – and heaven knows we endured our share of those midweek disasters – is better than none at all.

But the season is long enough (and owners want it even longer at 18 games, trust me) and the playoffs are almost here. The divisional slate this weekend has several match-ups that have caught my eye. I'm going to take an early look at some sides and totals that stand out to me, and I'll follow up on Friday with some updates on those angles and also get into the prop market then.

There are definitely a handful of games to avoid at this point, and there's too many variables with regard to who is going to be held back and how certain coaches are going to approach what are meaningless games for them – same as last week. But there's also some attractive early plays with less uncertainty surrounding them:

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Steelers -3 vs. Browns

An ascending, Mike Tomlin-lead team with a playoff opportunity in front of them no one saw coming. A rookie quarterback leading consecutive late fourth-quarter, game-winning touchdown drives who refuses to turn the ball over. An old-school run game with Najee Harris pounding it inside and Jaylen Warren getting to the outside to the tune of 146 yards per game on the ground over the last six weeks. A defense allowing less than 17 points per game since TJ Watt returned (and Watt is coming off his best game of the season last week at Baltimore). 

Would you bet against that? In favor of a middling Browns team with a passing game that has regressed since Deshaun Watson took over? Don't let last week's fluky win over the Commandos fool you – Carson Wentz gave that game away in the first half, Watson ran around off-script and tried to throw it to his tackles and the other team. The Steelers six-man bear front on defense will be a problem for Nick Chubb, should they adopt it, and I love the Steelers at home to end their season against a franchise they own with everything on the line. Pittsburgh was 2-6 at the bye and will be 9-8 after this game.

Browns Team Total Under 18.5

The Browns have scored 24, 10, 13 and 10 points in their last four games. Offensive touchdowns are hard to come by for Cleveland. Unless Kenny Pickett is going to pull a Wentz and throw game flow, scoreboard and everything else out of whack and throw interceptions from his own 24 and 12 on two of the first three drives, I see this being a very tough slog for an already-eliminated Browns team -- particularly in the second half. The Steelers will beat the Browns up. Watson will turn it over (the Steelers have been ballhawks in the second half of the season). This is down from 20 at the start of the week, so I don't want to wait much longer if I like it.

Raiders +9.5 vs. Chiefs

This spread keeps moving and I want to get it now. I don't think it goes much higher after oscillating between 9.5 and 7.5, and I expect Josh McDaniels and the Raiders staff to try to make a point here with Jarrett Stidham at quarterback and play this game to the hilt. Las Vegas was a big problem for the Chiefs in their first meeting and it's impossible not to be impressed by what Stidham did last week under duress against the best defense in the NFL (San Francisco). Josh Jacobs is entering free agency – or a franchise tag – with a chance to win the rushing title, and the Raiders have a full compliment of weapons ready to attack a suspect Chiefs defense. Kansas City has been dying to blow a game to a far lesser opponent for a while now, and even with the top seed potentially on the line I don't think this will be easy for for them. Jacobs ran all over them for 154 yards on 21 carries last time. The Raiders rarely lose when he does get fed at least 20 times. Jacobs also caught all five targets for 39 yards, and Devante Adams and Derek Carr were off kilter (as was often the case) and Adams still caught three balls for 124 yards. The Raiders have scored 30 or more in two of their last last three, and I think this is another shootout, but I can't see a total blowout here. Four of the last five Chiefs games have had one-score margins.

Raiders vs. Chiefs Over 52.5

The analysis I wrote above holds true for this play as well. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have carved up the Raiders and they average 30 points per game. They have also given up 24 or more in four of the last five games. The first game between these two teams produced nearly 60 points, and one could argue the Raiders offense has improved and the Chiefs defense has suffered since then. The Chiefs team total is now up to 31.5, which is a little rich for my blood, but the Raiders Over 21.5 (+100) looks really good to me, as does the game Over.

Jaguars Team Total Over 23.5

The Jaguars are cooking on offense and they have everything to play for. They have a massive advantage at QB, a far healthier roster, and an offensive-minded head coach who has won a Super Bowl before. If you want to take the Jags to cover the 6, I get it, but I want to ride their offense against a wounded defense more than anything else here. Trevor Lawrence is the second-highest rated passer in the NFL over the last six weeks. He was born for the big stage and I expect Doug Pederson to come out chucking it and chasing an early two-score lead, which Josh Dobbs and the anemic Titans defense cannot overcome. Maybe there is late-game covering, but Tennessee's bottom-three pass defense will get exposed here, big time -- again. The Titans had no answers for Evan Engram or Zay Jones in the first meeting. Even though the Titans stuffed the run, the Jags still hung 36 on them -- and that was with Lawrence only attempting five passes in the fourth quarter with Jacksonville in command. He was 30-for-42 for 368 yards and three touchdowns without an interception (121.9 rating) in that game, and another boxscore along those lines would not surprise me in the least.

Dolphins vs. Jets Under 38.5

Okay, I had to indulge in one ugly game. I fear this gets down to the 35 range through the week. Miami has a third-string QB and the Jets are playing Mike White, who we aren't sure is actually a starter. But he's all they've got and he's got bad ribs. I really believe the Jets can play defense and hold Miami to single digits here. The New York offense is pretty broken, regardless. The owner is getting restless. Miami's defense never became a thing like it was a year ago, but outside of Garrett Wilson, who on the Jets are you worried about? New York hasn't topped 17 points in four straight games and didn't face an elite defense in that stretch. The Jets simply haven't had a pulse since White hurt his ribs in the Vikings game. And are you buying Miami putting up points here? That offense has struggling mightily without Tua Tagovailoa.

Check back later in the week for player props and a same-game parlay!

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