The NFL loves to stack divisional games at the back end of the schedule, for obvious reasons, hoping to rachet up the impact as teams jockey for divisional titles. Only this year, I don't think it's gonna work as they anticipate.

We are currently in one of those lulls in which the league tends to stash a bunch of out-of-conference games, with the inventory of rivalry games filling out the final few weeks. But even looking forward, outside of the two worst divisions in football (AFC South and NFC South) there isn't going to be much intrigue. And, again, does anyone really care who wins the southern divisions given how little will be expected from that division winner in the postseason?

Think about it – the Vikings, Bills, Eagles, 49ers and Chiefs pretty much have this wrapped up. There's a chance the AFC North will come down to Ravens vs. Bengals in Week 18, but maybe not. So I guess what I'm saying is there stands to be a bunch of games coming up that looked a lot more significant when the schedule came out in the spring than what they'll actually be going to be into the end of the season. The level of motivation – for either team – might not be there like we thought it might.

Factor accordingly.

As for this week's game, there were not a ton of spreads that really leapt out to me. But the Saturday slate in particular has me amped to cash some tickets. Here's what I like the most:

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Bills -7 vs. Dolphins

This looked like a fairly brutal spot for Miami, even without the weather report. The Dolphins just played two straight in California in which the opposing defenses beat them up and made them think twice about their ability to score points. And now it's a potential blizzard? Good luck. I didn't like some of Mike McDaniels's comments this week, kind of blaming players rather than his scheme. Wearing a cute t-shirt at practice isn't going to make his quarterback really function in the snow and cold. Tua Tagovailoa is in a bad way (0-4 in his four coldest games), teams are rerouting Jaylen Waddle at the line of scrimmage and forcing Tyreek Hill to the outside. Buffalo can replicate that approach. Josh Allen loves bad weather games. Let's not forget that even though Miami somehow beat Buffalo earlier this year, the Bills ran 90 plays in that game and have outscored the Dolphins 179-91 in their last five home games against them. There will be payback. Miami's defense still does not impress me and the secondary is downright brutal.

Lions Moneyline at Jets (+110)

There's just too many injuries for the Jets. The loss of Quinnen Williams, against this Detroit offensive line and dangerous run game, is going to be a big problem. The Jets' withering offensive line is an issue too, as is a very beat up Mike White. Jared Goff is better in a dome, I get all that, but Detroit's style of play plays outdoors or indoors. The Lions' defense has improved quite a bit since the season began and they will force the Jets to be more pass-happy than they would like. The Lions are no longer horrible on the road (two straight wins) and are 9-4 against the spread this season. They've won five of six, rolling up 32 points per game and allowing just 20. Yes, this is a very good Jets defense, but the roster is getting depleted and all of the motion the Lions run will cause issues. I can't help but wonder if we end up seeing Joe Flacco at some point, and his immobility would be a problem for New York. 

Ravens at Browns Under 38

The Ravens are an Under team. They keep playing games in the teens with a stout defense and a ball-control offense that lacks any cutting edge in the passing game -- especially with back-up Tyler Huntley at quarterback. The ball comes out fast and goes about five yards downfield. This Browns offense is worse with Deshaun Watson at QB, and he looks terrible. The run game is drying up behind an eroding offensive line and Watson has no touch or accuracy on his deep ball after so much time away. The Ravens will turn him over. Baltimore's defense is dominant against the run and Nick Chubb has struggled against them. Smells like another 17-14 game to me.

Eagles at Bears Over 48

These two teams combined are 18-8 to the Over. Chicago's defense was bad with Roquan Smith and inept without him. They have allowed 28, 31, 27, 31, 35 and 49 points – and now face the top-scoring offense in the NFL in peak form. All the Eagles have done their last three games is score 48, 35 and 40 points. I am concerned about a back door cover -- Justin Fields will make some big plays and the Bears will score some points late against soft coverages and a three-man rush. The Eagles will go Over their team total of 29.5 (-110). I wouldn't be entirely shocked if they are pretty much there around halftime.

Steelers Team Total Under 17.5 (-115)

The Steelers offense is pretty broken and the Panthers are a physical and hungry defense. Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph stink and the momentum Pittsburgh was building with Kenny Pickett is gone with him concussed. The Panthers will eliminate the run game and create turnovers in the passing game. They want Steve Wilks to remain their head coach and are sending that message with their 60-minute game film each week. They are also still alive in the NFC South. Carolina will go on some methodical drives, eating clock, and the Steelers are all about 10-play drives (that produce field goals or missed field goals).

Buccaneers Team Total Under 20.5 (-120)

The Bucs have no deep passing game and very little intermediate passing game. They have the worst running game in the NFL. I like Logan Wilson to be able to handle the running back in the screen game – and that's pretty much the scope of the Bucs offense right now. Tom Brady does not throw passing touchdowns until the fourth quarter and they are facing a quality defense (Bengals) that is adherent to its scheme and makes astute second-half adjustments.

Giants Team Total Under 17.5 (-120)

Now even Saquan Barkley is running out of gas and slowed down. The Giants have nothing to offer except Daniel Jones taking off and running. Washington's defense knows the drill. They held them to 20 points in New York through overtime and are coming off a bye to what will be the best home-field environment in decrepit FedEx Field in a long, long time. Jones will be under fire.

Ravens at Browns Same-Game Parlay (+1100)

• J.K. Dobbins Anytime TD
• Deshaun Watson INT
• Ravens Under Team Total

Player Props of the Week

Donovan Peoples-Jones Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (+104)

Peoples-Jones seems to be Watson's go-to guy. The Ravens don't have much at corner besides Marlon Humphry and he will probably be all over Amari Cooper or helping with a tight end. The deep-ball potential makes this number low for me at plus money.

JK Dobbins Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-103)

Baltimore's offensive line is elite when Ronnie Stanley is at left tackle, and he's back. Dobbins looked better last week than we've seen in a long time, and there will be abundant volume in the run game as the Ravens try to keep Myles Garrett from wrecking their back-up QB. Cleveland's defense is twice as worse as any other in football vs. the run per TruMedia's Run Defense EPA metric. He could double this total, easy.

Tua Tagovailoa Over 5.5 Rushing Yards (-111)

The Dolphins aren't going to be able to throw it in the snow. Their run game has yet to get going. Tagovailoa is going to be under pressure. I'm not worried about kneel-downs.

Justin Fields Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Until I see this in the mid-70s, I'm going to keep riding it.

Tom Brady INT (-108)

I've been on this for a while. Can't get it at plus money anymore, but Brady's going to keep throwing a million passes around the line of scrimmage in high-traffic areas. There will be deflections, tips and picks.

D'Onta Foreman Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-117)

The Steelers just got gashed by the Ravens, who were doing nothing but running with a third-string QB. Carolina will be a problem for them and there will be a ton of carries for Foreman.

Desmond Ridder Over 24.5 Rushing Yards (-125) 

I expect the rookie to do plenty of scampering in his first NFL start. It will be his default.

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