Perhaps, like me, you found yourself analyzing the Wild Card lineup this weekend with a familiar feeling. Almost as if you have seen all of this before in some way shape or form.

That's because we have. All six of these games are rematches of contests from earlier this season, and half of them are what I refer to as "threematches." Get it? It'll be the third time these divisional foes are playing this season. Dad jokes for all!

But seriously, this is arguably the central theme of the week. How much stock do we put in past performance? How much is the past directly predictive of what is likely to come? How much do we factor in the lack of motivation for one team or another in some of these previous matchups? What do we make of the Ravens and Bengals playing twice in a week, after their Week 18 game was something of an exhibition given the Ravens sitting much of their starting offense?

There are certainly some clear trends worth observing, if not outwardly adhering to, and one must also factor in that it tends to be rough sledding for young quarterbacks – or in the case of Geno Smith, not so young quarterbacks – making their playoff debut. It is a bit of a different game, with much slimmer margins, in the postseason. With that said, here are the early plays that stand out to me for each game. As always, keep a close watch on injury reports and practice participation.

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Bills First Half -7 vs. Dolphins

Skylar Thompson looked pretty overwhelmed at home a week ago against a bad Jets team. This is a drastically more difficult assignment than that. Buffalo has statistically dominated both meetings with Miami (even the early-season loss when the Bills ran 90 plays) and I could see him giving away some field position early. The Bills will come out with a great script and they know how to attack a suspect Miami offense. This line immediately went up a half-point after it was announced that Tua Tagovailoa wouldn't play, while the spread soared. I like the Bills to score early and continue to push the pace. With Tagovailoa being a non-factor, they can sell out to stop the run. Maybe Thompson settles into the game in the second half, and maybe the Bills allow a back-door cover, but I see the first half being about the Bills trying to stamp down a lesser team and make a statement. 

The Bills racked up 60 first downs in the two prior meetings. They went 19 for 32 on third down and compiled nearly 1000 yards (943). Dawson Knox does his best work against this defense and Josh Allen has otherworldly numbers against Miami over the last two years. He became the first player in NFL history with 700 passing yards and 100 rushing yards against the same opponent (Miami) in one season.

49ers -6.5 First Half vs. Seahawks

This looks like another blowout, but I wonder about Brock Purdy in his playoff debut and the 49ers potentially not really running up the score over the course of 60 minutes. I could see them bleeding the clock on the ground in the second half (San Francisco amassed 380 rushing yards against Seattle this year) after exerting their will from the onset. The 49ers outscored Seattle 34-3 in the first half of their two meetings. 

Seattle Under 15.5 intrigues me, but man is that a low number with slim margins. But I will lean into the fact that the Seahawks have just one offensive touchdown against the 49ers this season. Geno Smith managed just an 87.4 rating in those two games. I see him throwing an early pick (he's thrown seven in his last seven games) and Kyle Shanahan having a smart script to get the best of a terrible Seahawks defense from the onset. George Kittle will go off, I suspect, and the pass rush will help set up Purdy with winning field position. Getting him a comfortable early lead will be key and it's a mission I believe the 49ers can accomplish. San Francisco allows just 14.8 points at home (NFL best) while Seattle allows 27.9 on the road (30th).

Giants at Vikings Over 48

Daniel Jones making his playoff debut gives me some pause, but the Giants have been playing defacto playoff games for a few weeks now and they are in good form. Both of these defenses have some fatal flaws. The Giants blitz more than anyone in the league and I don't think Wink Martindale is stopping here. Kirk Cousins is very good against the blitz overall and killed it in the Vikings 27-24 win over New York in Week 16 (122.1 rating on 23 dropbacks). The Giants also have no answers for Justin Jefferson or T.J. Hockenson, and while the secondary should be healthier here, the Giants' failure to defend tight ends is a season-long thing. 

The Vikings are 28th in points allowed, 30th in yards per play conceded, 21st in opposing QB rating and have allowed 30 points or more five times in their last nine games (averaging 26 allowed per game). Jones had his way with them last time, Saquon Barkley was a force in both the running and passing game, and I see both doing damage with their legs here. All these teams do is play one-score games, it seems, and I'm more inclined to think the game flow mimics more the wacky fourth quarter of the first meeting than the first three quarters (during which they combined for 23 points).

Jaguars at Chargers Under 47.5

Both quarterbacks are making their postseason debut and the Chargers could be without some key pieces due to coaching malpractice last week (What's new there?). These are two teams whose defenses have carried them at key times down the stretch. I expect some early nerves and jitters. It sure seemed to me that Doug Pederson had the blinders on Trevor Lawrence a bit in last week's AFC South title game, and Lawrence was not great. The Chargers always have the blinders on Justin Herbert, and have become quite risk averse in game management. Pederson was as well last week, which isn't usually his nature, but was probably due to the inexperienced roster he has. I see him trying to bully the Chargers on the ground – the Jaguars ran for 150 in their first meeting – with L.A. 32nd in the NFL in run defense EPA per TruMedia. 

Austin Ekeler is the Chargers' TD machine, but the Jags have bottled up running backs in the passing game all season. They haven't allowed a passing TDs allowed to the position -- just an 80.4 rating allowed, second-best in the league, while picking off three passes. The Jags are allowing just 15 points per game during their five-game winning streak and the Chargers are allowing just 15 per game in their last five games (4-1). The Chargers pass defense is legit, and I see both of these coaching staffs zoning it up and trying to keep everything in front of their safeties and eliminate big plays. I lean to the home team to win in a coin-flip game, but I could see the score being 21-20, 23-21, something along those lines.

Ravens Team Total Under 15.5 Points vs. Bengals (-120)

I have to keep riding this, especially against an elite defense that knows the Ravens inside out, and with undrafted rookie Anthony Brown likely getting the call again. For purposes of this bet, I'd prefer Tyler Huntley to play with a banged-up shoulder, because the offense is even more inept with him at the helm. Here's the Ravens' scoring efforts over the last six games: 16, 13, 17, 3, 16, 10. These two teams combined to go 21-11-1 to the Under, and I will probably play this game that way as well, but want to get the Baltimore total before it even drops further. Without Jackson in the run game, things bog down. 

The Bengals have great balance on defense and make the best second half adjustments in the game. I don't see the Ravens offense doing much early – they never do – and I don't see the Bengals inclined to give away much late. I also don't anticipate this being a garbage time game in which Baltimore can do what it wants in the fourth quarter because the game is out of reach. The Ravens have the worst receiving group in the postseason by a country mile, which means leaning even more into two-TE sets (Baltimore's been running them a staggering 81% of the time last five weeks). The problem is, the Bengals are the best team in NFL at defending those plays. They've allowed a 60.4 QB rating vs. plays involving two or more TEs, with just a 49% completion rate. Last week was weird with not so much on the line and the Ravens playing a lot of backups, but I think we see the best of the Bengals defense here (second in the NFL in offensive TDs allowed). Justin Tucker can only do so much.

Buccaneers Moneyline vs. Cowboys (+122)

Tom Brady is winning this game. Dak Prescott is losing this game. If you have been watching these teams with any regularity recently, this seems baked in the cake. Brady dominates the fourth quarter and the Cowboys are coming up short when it matters most (very on brand). The Cowboys need their defense to carry them, but that unit has been struggling down the stretch. That defense is allowing 27.2 PPG when playing on grass this season and suffering major issues on third down (when that pass rush slows down). The Cowboys are 1-4 in those games. Tony Pollard being beat up is a big deal. I spoke with two evaluators who have faced the Cowboys recently and they believe Prescott's INT woes are akin to the yips at this point. It's in his head and bringing out the worst in him. Prescott has a lowly 87.5 rating since Week 13. Dallas has lost eight straight road playoff games and as a rule I tend to fade Wild Card teams that have both coordinators angling for head coaching gigs and lining up interviews. Throw in that Mike McCarthy is coaching for his NFL life – don't buy into what Jerry Jones says publicly – and that's a dangerous combination. And they are facing the biggest winner in NFL history in his backyard? I could see this game going Over and playing out quite differently than their Week 1 meeting (19-3), and I will be all over INT props on both sides.

Check back later in the week for player props and a same-game parlay!

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