The year of the Under quickly turned to the weekend of points coming in bunches. Wild Card weekend featured no shortage of points scored (more than 55 per game) and there could have easily been more with a few more kicks made and fewer red zone blunders. Yeah, I'm looking at you, Buccaneers and Cowboys.

One can't help but wonder if that trend will continue. The average game total was set at 44 a week ago and it's already up to nearly 49/game in the divisional round. The Chiefs/Jags total is almost up three points already from the opening line, the Eagles/Giants is up a tick and the other two have held firm after an initial dip in Bills/Bengals down to 48. I anticipate plenty of line movement through the week, and I'll weigh again on Friday with what stands out to me then, but here is what's catching my attention midweek as we prepare, sadly, for the final Saturday games of the season.

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Giants +7.5 vs. Eagles

The Giants are a live-ish dog for me. I love the swagger and confidence they displayed as a young team on the road in a loud dome last week, and they have taken on the brashness of their coaching staff and used it to their advantage. There's no expectations. They're having fun. They are put in positions to win. 

Jalen Hurts struggled mightily in the playoffs last year, and I'm still a little concerned about how healthy he and stud right tackle Lane Johnson really are. The Eagles are under immense pressure after their 14-3 finish. Philly pummeled New York in Week 14, but the Giants were quite shorthanded defensively and the Eagles built such a quick lead that it eliminated the Giants' running game. I expect Daniel Jones and Saquan Barkley to do damage on the ground and the Giants to have the play-action game humming. There will be real doubt about what Brian Daboll is trying to do on early downs. Yeah, the Eagles secondary is elite, but they also almost never faced an elite quarterback or passing attack this season -- Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence, Dak Prescott and Jones are the best they faced. I like the emergence of options in the Giants' passing game -- they've topped 30 points two straight games. They can run the ball and rely on short passes to try to mitigate Philly's 70-sack pass rush. They'll muddle it up some, confuse them in option game and with play action, and keep it close.

New York blitzed more than any other team this season and Hurts really struggles against the blitz. 

The Giants are 14-4 against the spread and 7-1 on the road including the playoffs; the Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four.

Boston Scott TD (+305)

I suspect this number comes down as the weekend approaches. All Scott does is score touchdowns against the Giants. He's gotten at least one in all eight games he's played against New York and 10 total. Scott averages 4.8 rush/carry vs. NYG in his career and averages at least two catches per game against them. The Eagles have many other threats to worry about in their attack. I have to sprinkle here and respect the trend because it seems head coach Nick Sirianni does the same.

Daniel Jones Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-117)

Loved this play last week and for much of the season. I would not be shocked if Jones is at or near this number by halftime again this week. The crowd will be nuts, the Giants can't turn it over and succumb to the blitz and Jones is a premier threat when he takes off. With a suspect tackle, Jones understands the assignment and his legs will play a major part in this game. He ran 14 times last week.

Chiefs -5 First Half vs. Jaguars

The Jaguars are becoming America's sweethearts with all of their wild comebacks, but don't forget it requires falling behind early to get in that spot. Arrowhead will be quite a different challenge for Trevor Lawrence. Andy Reid's early-game scripts are legendary and Reid coming off a bye is legendary too (28-6). Even when the Cheifs have botched things in the playoffs at home (such as in AFC Championship Game last year), they put up early points and leads. Kansas City led by 13 when these teams got together in Week 10, and peep the Jags halftime margins vs. good teams this season: -27 (Chargers), -14 (Cowboys), -17 (Lions), +1 (Ravens), -13 (Chiefs), -2 (Giants), -6 (Eagles). This seems to be who they are. Expect some jitters and early mistakes. The Chiefs defense will give up yards and points as the game moves on, but I anticipate Reid to come out attacking, and Patrick Mahomes will get in a rhythm going early. Mahomes in the first half vs Jags Week 10: 15/21 for 191 yards, 3 TDS, 0 INTs and four rushes for 39 yards. The Chiefs rolled up 486 yards in that game despite three turnovers.

Jerrick McKinnon TD (+117)

Another trend we have been riding for a while. With the Chiefs red zone offense bogging down some, and teams clamping down on Travis Kelce (12 TDs on the season but none since November 27), McKinnon has become the safety valve, the check-down guy, the weapon to find when Mahomes has to improvise. McKinnon has a TD in six straight games, and a whopping nine total TDs in that span on 27 touches). Has had at least two catches in seven straight games and caught six of eight targets for 56 yards in the first meeting with Jacksonville. I anticipate more usage this week, and the same kind red zone looks he's been getting for nearly two months now.

Bills Team Total Under 26.5 vs. Bengals (+100)

The Bengals have their issues along the offensive line, but I anticipate another stout defensive effort from them. They have a knack for creating turnovers and Josh Allen has a knack for killing drives with turnovers these days (six turnovers in his last three gamers and 19 in the regular season overall). That will stall things out. The Bengals' defense is playoff tested. They have allowed 24 points or fewer in all five of their postseason games over the past two years and I believe many of the same principles and schematics that have proven to give Mahomes fits in the past will play quite well against Allen and this Bills offense. Allen was under assault by the Dolphins last week, and while Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo won't blitz nearly as much as Miami does, he can create pressure with four. I love how DJ Reader and BJ Hill are playing inside, and Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard have shown they can take playoff games over off the edge. Anarumo will try to bait the Bills into running against his umbrella looks. The Bengals are a premier time-of-possession team (despite their pathetic rushing game) and I see them muddling things up and trying to slow the pace. This feels like 24-21 to me, or something like that, but with both QBs able to do special things, I'm going to play the total this way rather than for the game. If it was still at 50, that would probably be a different story.

Gabe Davis Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-119)

Big Game Gabe! All Davis does is take over playoff games. He shredded the Dolphins last week and has 14 catches for 314 yards and 5 TDs in his past two postseason contests (including when he dusted the Chiefs at Arrowhead). He didn't see as much timeshare in the Wild Card game against New England last year, but still caught two of three targets for 41 yards and touchdown in that one. Davis had a nice game against the Colts in the postseason in 2020 as well (four catches on four targets for 85 yards). Stefon Diggs will get plenty of attention here, and the Bengals are short at corner. Eli Apple will struggle with him if that's the match-up.

Gabe Davis TD (+170)

We obviously want to cover our backside here as well. This has a nice value and makes too much sense given how often he is hitting paydirt lately.

49ers -4 vs. Cowboys

I think this one could get lopsided. The 49ers are monsters right now and the Cowboys are facing quite a different challenge here than the one presented by the carcasses of the Buccaneers (a losing team, by the way) on Monday night. Now they travel on short rest to a team that has been impervious at home, trying to reach their first championship game since 1996. The 49ers have been sleeping in their own beds since they got back from a short jaunt to Las Vegas on Jan. 2. Furthermore, the 49ers are basically fully healthy, and their dominant defensive front gets to take aim at a leaky Cowboys offensive line that they haven't been able to plug up. 

Don't get caught up in Dak Prescott's mastery last week, he's good for at least one pick against this defense -- the Niners pass rush wrecked him in the playoffs last year. This is a coaching mismatch, and I suspect Kyle Shanahan's time as a coordinator under Dan Quinn in Atlanta will give him a leg up as he schemes against him again now. Brock Purdy has been the best-performing QB on the planet since taking over Week 14. The Cowboys will struggle with all the shape-shifting positionless stuff Shanahan does and all of his motion. He won't let Micah Parsons wreck this game and their season. No team faced fewer snaps of 21 personnel this season than the Cowboys (27 snaps; NFL average was 83). No one has used it more than Shanahan since Purdy took over (26 snaps per game, including the playoffs) and that heavy stuff will be a problem for Dallas. Christian McCaffrey might catch 12 screen passes/checkdowns and the 49ers are the best yards-after-catch offense in the NFL, while Dallas is 22nd in allowing YAC. Oh, and the Cowboys have a kicker with the yips, too. 

The only winning teams the Cowboys faced outside of their division were the Bengals (Dallas won 20-17 when Cincy's offensive was still a mess in September),the Jaguars (lost 40-34 at Jacksonville) and the Vikings (a fraudulent team Dallas smashed 40-3). They are out of their weight class here. Shanahan is 6-1 ATS in the playoffs, while Mike McCarthy got whacked with an ATS loss Monday night. San Francisco is 8-1 ATS in its last nine.

49ers Over 24.5 Points (-110)

The Dallas defense has struggled on grass for the most part -- yeah, not so much last week, but that Tampa Bay offense was broken. They are coming up against an offense putting up 35 points per game since Purdy took over. Heck, the 49ers put up 23 points on the Cowboys through three quarters in their playoff meeting a year ago, and that was with Jimmy Garoppolo doing basically nothing. Dallas relies on turnovers for stops but no team turns it over less than the 49ers. It wouldn't surprise me if the Niners got to 30.

Check back later in the week for player props and a same-game parlay!

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