Jadeveon Clowney odds boost for Titans? SportsLine Projection Model and oddsmakers differ

For weeks, SportsLine NFL oddsmakers had listed the Tennessee Titans as the favorites to sign defensive end and former No. 1 overall draft pick Jadeveon Clowney in free agency, and it finally happened over the weekend. He got a one-year contract worth up to $15 million and reunites with Titans head coach Mike Vrabel, who was Clowney's position coach and defensive coordinator when the two were with the Houston Texans.

Clowney's career best season came in 2017 with Houston when he had 9.5 sacks, 21 tackles for loss and 21 quarterback hits. Last year he was limited to only three sacks in 13 games with Seattle but won on 31.9 percent of his rushes in one-on-one situations. That mark was fourth-highest in the NFL. His overall 24.8 percent pass rush win rate was fifth-highest.

While Clowney is known more for his ability to get to the quarterback, he has the league's highest rate since 2016 of tackles on run plays that result in no gain or a loss in the NFL at 5.8 percent. Clowney is expected to play both outside linebacker and defensive end on that Tennessee defense. He's +2200 at William Hill sportsbook to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year.

William Hill oddsmakers and the SportsLine Projection Model disagree on Clowney's impact, however. The sportsbook still lists the Titans as +160 second-favorites to win the South for the first time since 2008. Thanks in part to the offseason addition of QB Philip Rivers, the Colts are +120 favorites to take the division for the first time since 2014.

The model, though, gives Tennessee a 53.6 percent chance to win the division – easily the highest of the four teams. The Colts are at 27.9 percent. William Hill lists Indy's win total at 9.0 and Tennessee's at 8.5, but the model has the Colts at 8.1 victories and the Titans now at 9.0.

Vrabel has said Clowney has a "pretty good" shot of playing at the Denver Broncos in Week 1. That Monday night matchup is a pick'em on the NFL odds. 

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