Hendon Hooker 2023 NFL Draft odds: Tennessee quarterback favored to be first-round pick by Vikings or Seahawks

One of the biggest leans on the 2023 NFL Draft props at Caesars Sportsbook is on Over 4.5 quarterbacks being chosen in Thursday's Round 1, and the Over is juiced to a price of -215. Alabama's Bryce Young, Ohio State's CJ Stroud, Florida's Anthony Richardson and Kentucky's Will Levis are all likely to be taken in the first round. Whether the Over 4.5 hits depends on Tennessee's Hendon Hooker. He is given an over/under draft spot of 30.5, with the Under a -190 favorite. The Vikings are +350 leaders at DraftKings to be the team to take him, followed by the Seahawks at +700.

Note that there are 31 picks in this year's first round with Miami losing its pick because of tampering penalties. Hooker was at one point the 2022 Heisman Trophy favorite, but his chances at the award and Tennessee's shot at reaching the College Football Playoff for the first time ended in a 63-38 upset at South Carolina on Nov. 19. Hooker tore his ACL during the game and was done for the season.

The transfer from Virginia Tech was named the SEC Offensive Player of the Year (the first Volunteers player since Peyton Manning to win), All-SEC First Team and third-team All-American. He completed a school record 69.6% of his passes for 3,135 yards with 27 touchdowns and only two interceptions while rushing 104 times for 430 yards and five scores on the ground. Hooker's 175.5 QB rating was the second-best single-season mark in Vols history behind his own 2021 school record, and was second nationally in 2022.

Among the 66 FBS quarterbacks who attempted 329 or more passes last year, Hooker threw the fewest picks with just two. He also led five wins over opponents ranked in the AP Top 25 at the time of play (Pittsburgh, Florida, LSU, Alabama and Kentucky), combining for 1,817 yards of total offense and 16 touchdowns in those games.

NFL.com gives the 6-foot-3, 217-pound Hooker a draft grade of 6.23, which equates to "will eventually be an average starter" and a comp of Desmond Ridder, a third-round pick last year with Atlanta. The CBS Sports Big Board ranks Hooker as the No. 55 overall prospect.

The knocks on Hooker are that he's 25 years old and coming off a serious injury. Hooker recently told the media that he'll be fully cleared in about four months: "I'll get cleared 100% by Sept. 1." That presumably rules him out for starting Week 1 this year. The only other two QBs age 25 or older drafted in the first three rounds in the Common Draft Era were Brandon Weeden at No. 22 in 2012 by Cleveland and John Beck at No. 40 by Miami in 2007. Neither had a good pro career.

Minnesota could be ideal landing spot for Hooker, as he could sit and learn behind Kirk Cousins in 2023. Cousins is set for free agency after this season. The Vikings pick 23rd. Seattle surely isn't taking Hooker at No. 5 overall, but he could be an option at No. 20.

Tennessee, Tampa Bay and Houston are all +1000 on this prop. The Titans pick at No. 11, the Buccaneers at No. 19 and the Texans at No. 2 and No. 12 -- both likely too high for Houston to take Hooker, although the team could trade back. Baltimore is +1600 on this prop and might need a long-term Lamar Jackson replacement. The Ravens pick at No. 22, one spot ahead of Minnesota. After the Vikings at No. 23, there doesn't appear to be another team in the first round with a need at quarterback.

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