Hayden Hurst has top-five Fantasy TE potential in Atlanta

Over the past 10 years, only nine tight ends have been selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. One of the most surprising names on that short list is Hayden Hurst -- not because of lack of talent, but because he was already 24 years old when drafted. Hurst is a versatile athlete, who was drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2012 and spent two years playing minor league baseball before getting back to football.

Despite the fact that Hurst would turn 25 years old before playing an NFL game, the Ravens saw enough talent that they used a first-round selection on the 6'5" pass-catching threat. If you take age out of the equation and simply evaluate Hurst as a prospect, it isn't hard to see why Baltimore fell in love. Hurst set a school record for catches and receiving yards in his second year at South Carolina, and he was the first sophomore in school history to be a team captain. At 6'5" and 250 pounds, he has the size to dominate at the point of catch, and he recorded an 80th-percentile speed score for someone at his size.

From a talent perspective, you could see how any team would be enticed enough to use a first-round pick on Hurst. What didn't make sense was how Baltimore saw the fit playing out, given their already-deep tight end position group. They already had second-round pick Maxx Williams on the roster, and they used a 2018 third-round selection on Mark Andrews. On top of that, blocking extraordinaire Nick Boyle was entrenched as an important part of Baltimore's run-heavy approach. In Hurst's first season, even finding his way onto the field was going to be a challenge.

Nick Boyle led the tight end group with a 52 percent snap rate in Hurst's rookie season, which left little playing time for the remaining three pass-catching options. Hurst's snap rate rose from the 22 percent mark he saw as a rookie to 41 percent in 2019, but it was still hard to make much of an impact with Boyle playing 69 percent of the snaps. With the Ravens running on a league-high 54 percent of their offensive plays and Mark Andrews emerging as Lamar Jackson's preferred target in the red zone, there simply wasn't room for Hurst to shine.

You could make a case that Hurst had equal opportunity to Andrews to earn Jackson's trust and play a starring role, as they both were second-year pros. That's fair. But, it is important to note that Andrews is not just any tight end. The 2.89 yards per route run posted by Andrews last year was the second-highest mark posted by any tight end since 2006 -- the first year we have that data available. In terms of yards per route run, Andrews' 2019 season was more efficient than any season ever posted by Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, or Antonio Gates. Can you really blame Hurst for not outperforming Andrews when given that context?

Hurst still was impressive from an efficiency standpoint, when given the chance. He ranked 10th among qualified tight ends in yards per route run -- tied with Zach Ertz and ahead of Evan Engram, Hunter Henry, and Austin Hooper.

So, when news broke that Hooper was leaving the Falcons in favor of the Cleveland Browns, it shouldn't have been a surprise that the Atlanta Falcons felt comfortable enough with what Hurst has shown at the NFL level to part ways with a second- and fifth-round pick in exchange for Hurst and a fourth-round selection from the Ravens.

Hooper's signing with Cleveland was a huge blow to his Fantasy value, as his role in Atlanta was one of the most Fantasy-friendly of any tight end in the NFL. And given the amount of draft capital that Atlanta was willing to part ways with to acquire Hurst's services, it seems clear that he will be afforded every opportunity to inherit Hooper's Fantasy-friendly role. The move from Baltimore to Atlanta makes Hurst the biggest Fantasy riser of any tight end this offseason, and he is among the biggest free agency period Fantasy winners at any position so far.

Drastic Change in Usage

Freed from the shadow of Mark Andrews, Hurst could immediately step into the Austin Hooper role in Atlanta's pass-happy offense. He'll go from the most run-heavy scheme in the NFL to the most pass-heavy. Only four tight ends saw more targets per game than Hooper, who also ranked sixth in red zone targets and third in end zone targets.

Hooper ran more pass routes (36.8) per game than any tight end in the NFL. For reference, Andrews led Baltimore's tight end group with 19.7 routes run per game. Hurst ran just 12.9 per game. Really, for the amount of opportunity Hooper was afforded in Atlanta, his finishes as the TE6 and TE4 over the past two seasons aren't all that surprising or impressive. The dude runs more pass routes than any tight end in the league, is never the focal point of opposing defenses, and catches passes from one of the NFL's most accurate passers. The only tight end who is in the conversation for having a more favorable Fantasy situation is Travis Kelce.

Quarterback Upgrade

Among tight ends with at least 50 targets, Austin Hooper ranked second in catchable target rate (82.3 percent) in 2019. In 2018, Matt Ryan was on-target on 85.9 percent of his passes to Hooper!

Now, 81.6 percent of Hurst's targets were deemed catchable last year, but that came on just a 38-target sample. As a whole, Hurst, Boyle, and Andrews combined for just a 75.1 percent catchable target rate from Lamar Jackson. Not only will Hurst run more routes and see more targets, but those targets will be more accurate.

Hurst-Hooper comparison

Given their relative production to this point in their career, most would consider Hurst a downgrade from Hooper, but I think the difference in their production is a product of a difference in opportunity, rather than ability.

PFF's Anthony Treash wrote: "This is a solid move made on Atlanta's part and honestly might even be an upgrade over Hooper considering what the Browns paid him. One of Hooper's flaws was his ability to win in single coverage, and that's an area where Hurst has thrived in. He owns a two-year receiving grade in single coverage that ranks eighth at his position."

Here's a quick side-by-side comparing the two:

2019 yards per route run: Hurst (1.69), Hooper (1.65)
2018 yards per route run: Hurst (1.37), Hooper (1.34)

2019 PFF receiving grade: Hooper (80.5), Hurst (79.3)
2018 PFF receiving grade: Hurst (69.1), Hooper (67.1)

Their NFL efficiency has been pretty similar thus far, and actually points towards Hurst as being the more productive pass-catcher. The same goes for NFL Draft stock, measurables, and college production -- all advantage Hurst.

In no way is this meant to take away from what Hooper accomplished in 2019. He made huge strides in his fourth season with the Falcons, and to suggest that his production was simply a product of Atlanta's offensive system would be unfair. To act as if he didn't benefit from said system would be naive, though.

When you consider that Hurst was more efficient in his second pro season than Hooper was in his fourth, all while catching passes from a less efficient passer, it is easy to get excited about the 2020 Fantasy potential for the former first-round pick.

Takeaways

Exactly how much of Hooper's role will Hurst inherit? It's impossible to know for sure at this point in the offseason, but things are shaping up quite nicely with the undrafted Jaeden Graham and Carson Meier as his only competition for playing time at the moment. There are reasons to believe that he will thrive in Atlanta's offense, benefiting from the frequent one-on-one coverage that comes with playing alongside Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. Hurst believes Atlanta's offense is a 'perfect fit' for his abilities.

At the moment, Hurst is going off the board as just the TE21 on average. That number is already on the rise, and I'd expect his average draft position to settle in around the TE10 by the time most Fantasy drafts are happening. As of this writing, I'd be comfortable drafting Hurst as the TE6, and I think the upside is there for a top-five or even top-three Fantasy TE season.