Friday NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 trends: Bettors big on Alabama to cover spread vs. San Diego State, game to go Over total

Perhaps it's ironic that NCAA Tournament No. 1 overall seed Alabama is playing its South Region Sweet 16 game in Louisville tonight against No. 5 San Diego State, as no top overall seed has won the Big Dance since Louisville 10 years ago. The Crimson Tide are -7.5 to advance to Sunday's Elite Eight, and bettors are BetMGM are backing them heavily to cover. They're also in on the Over for the game's total of 137.5. Click here for model picks.

As of this writing, Bama-SDSU is the most-wagered game of Friday's four Sweet 16 matchups, with Alabama taking both the most tickets (54%) and most money (56%). The game's total is the lowest on the board – just ahead of the 138.5 in Miami vs. Houston – and taking the biggest Over lean of Friday with 60% of the tickets and 56% of the money.

Coach Nate Oats' team is the +300 favorite to cut down the nets on April 3 in Houston, and the book is exposed as the Tide have taken easily the most tickets to win the national title at 11.1%. No. 2 was defending champion Kansas at 8.0%, but the Jayhawks lost in the Round of 32 to Arkansas.

The books have taken down odds to win Final Four Most Outstanding Player, but Alabama freshman Brandon Miller had been the +375 favorite despite going scoreless in just 19 minutes of Round 1 due to a groin injury. He bounced back with 19 points and seven rebounds in the Round of 32 blowout of Maryland. Per CBS Sports' Jon Rothstein, Oats says Miller is still not 100%, but "should be better than he was last weekend."

A big tournament could see Miller picked as high as No. 2 in this summer's NBA Draft. He'll be among the first five off the board regardless. Victor Wembanyama is going first no matter what. DraftKings lists G-League player Scoot Henderson at -350 to go No. 2 with Miller at +180 and no one else in the ballpark.

Miller earlier this week won the Wayman Tisdale Award as the National Freshman of the Year, the first Alabama player to win the honor. He also became the first player from any school to sweep the SEC Player of the Year, Freshman of the Year and Tournament MVP awards in the same season. Miller is set at over/under 17.5 points tonight.

San Diego State enters having won 16 of 18 with the two losses coming on the road at Nevada (14-2 at home) and at Boise State (14-1 at home), both of which earned NCAA Tournament bids. SDSU has no shot at competing with Alabama offensively, so Brian Dutcher's team will slow the game down as much as possible. The Aztecs rank No. 6 nationally in 3-point percentage defense (.288), No. 24 in scoring defense (63.1 points allowed per game) and No. 40 in overall field goal percentage defense (.414).

These schools have never met. SDSU has played four games against the top-ranked team in the country all-time but has yet to win.

The second most-wagered game tonight is No. 5 Miami vs. No. 1 Houston in Midwest Region action from Kansas City, which will be shown on CBS. The Hurricanes are taking the second-most action behind Alabama on both tickets (65%) and money (62%) at +7.5. Miami has taken very little action at the book to win the national title, while Houston is third in tickets at 7.1%. 

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