First 2023 MLB manager fired odds: Is Cardinals' Oliver Marmol in jeopardy with St. Louis ready to start trading players?

In a bit of a surprise, no MLB manager was fired before the All-Star break. It would be even more surprising if all 30 managers make it through the entire campaign, and SportsLine offers odds on the first one fired with the second half starting Friday. The Cardinals' Oliver Marmol is the obvious favorite.

We've touched on Marmol a couple of times in the first half and it almost seems as if the Cardinals were going to dump Marmol, it would have happened by now. One could argue that Marmol's issues started last October. Yes, he did lead St. Louis to the NL Central title in his first season, but the Cardinals were easily swept at home in the two-game wild card series by Philadelphia, outscored a combined 8-3.

This year, the club has much been off from the get-go and sits at 38-52, in last place in the Central and 11.5 games behind first-place Cincinnati. Is a wild card spot possible? The Cardinals are 11 games back of that final spot. To make the playoffs via any route, they are +1500 with No at -2500.

GM John Mozeliak has officially declared the team will be a seller – but won't necessarily be selling off star-level players like reigning NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt (among those who have backed Marmol). The Cardinals are on track for a 68-94 record, which would be the team's worst in nearly a century. Starting pitchers Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery are both pending free agents, so they are likely candidates to be moved. Goldschmidt's contract runs through 2024.

"Right now, I can tell you, we're going to trade people, you just don't know if it's going to be household names or guys who are more likely to not be here next year," Mozeliak said to a St. Louis station. "It's easy to talk about what we may or may not do at the moment, but we're not going to just give away players. We want to get some value in return. We want to get some value that helps us in 2024. And that's really going to be our focus as we enter the trading period."

Does the fact the Cardinals are essentially giving up on this season save Marmol's job? We shall see. The team's updated Over/Under win total is 75.5. The team hasn't finished with a losing record since 2007 (78-84) or with 75 wins or fewer since 1999 (75-86 – only played 161 games that year).

The other managers on this list are also either from teams that were supposed to be playoff contenders in 2023 and have disappointed or are simply atrocious. Kansas City has MLB's second-worst record, but manager Matt Quatraro likely isn't being fired in his first season and thus isn't listed. The Royals knew they were rebuilding.

Via SportsLine oddsmakers: Which will be the first MLB manager fired?

• Oliver Marmol (Cardinals) +350
• Bud Black (Rockies) +500
• Buck Showalter (Mets) +600
• Bob Melvin (Padres) +900
• Dave Martinez (Nationals) +900
• Phil Nevin (Angels) +1000
• Mark Kotsay (A's) +1200
• Alex Cora (Red Sox) +2000

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