Fantasy football preseason storylines: Leonard Fournette will be a bust if he loses third-down role

Leonard Fournette is one of the most interesting players to evaluate for Fantasy football in 2020. If looking at his 2019 performance without any additional context, Fournette would appear to be worth a first- or second-round pick in Fantasy. He ranked seventh among all running backs in carries and fourth in targets. The Jaguars also fed Fournette the NFL's sixth-most red zone carries, in spite of his inability to convert them into touch downs.

Fournette's elite workload -- particularly as a pass-catcher -- helped him to the RB7 finish in Fantasy. He remains the team's clear top back heading into 2020, so why is he being drafted as just the RB16 in Fantasy?

His current ADP probably has something to do with the fact that Jacksonville was openly trying to trade Fournette this offseason. It might also be a product of his relatively disappointing performance to this point in his career. If his perfect storm volume season only yielded the RB7 finish, is the ceiling worth the considerable risk that comes with drafting Fournette?

There is a clear path to Fournette underperforming expectations at his ADP, even if he starts all 16 games for the Jags, and it comes as a result of him losing out on the unique receiving role we saw in 2019.

Fournette saw more targets (100) in 2019 than in his past three years (including college) combined. That type of target load was quite unusual for Fournette, and his performance in no way indicated that he was worthy of one of the best RB receiving roles in the NFL. The other five backs that saw at least 90 targets last season finished first, second, fifth, 16th, and 33rd among running backs in PFF's receiving grade. Fournette ranked 25th. Those backs finished first, fourth, seventh, 14th, and 23rd in yards per route run, while Fournette ranked 34th among 46.

Even if Jacksonville didn't bring in a third-down back this offseason, it would have been a surprise to see Fournette used the same way in the passing game in 2020. But they did bring in a third-down back, and while it has been a few seasons since we've seen Chris Thompson healthy and playing at a high level, his pedigree speaks for itself.

Even while operating in a limited role as the passing-down-only back, Thompson has demanded a target share no lower than 16 percent over the past three seasons in Washington. Fournette had an 18 percent target share last season. 49.4 percent of his Fantasy production came as a receiver in 2019. The writing was on the wall for a dip in his 18 percent target share before the offseason, but now that talented weapons in Thompson and rookie Leviska Shenault Jr. have been added to the mix, it's not out of the realm of possibilities that Fournette's target total could more closely resemble the 26 he saw in 2018 than the 100 he saw in 2019.

There is a small possibility that Fournette retains his three-down role, and you can read the tea leaves leading up to the season to have a clearer idea. But given that Thompson was one of new head coach Jay Gruden's favorite weapons in his days in Washington, I'm expecting a significantly diminished role for Fournette in the passing game.