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    Fantasy Football 2024 projections: Projecting the Dolphins offensive players from Tua Tagovailoa to Tyreek Hill and more

    SportsLine's Jacob Gibbs projects the Dolphins offense for 2024

    Before diving into Fantasy analysis for each team, I'll present a brief overview containing their offensive ranks in my baseline team projections as well as any notable coaching or offensive line changes.

    Projected Offensive Plays – (T-23rd)

    Projected Passing TDs – 29.8 (6th)

    Projected Rushing TDs – 18.6 (16th)

    Notable coaching changes:

    • Anthony Weaver takes over at defensive coordinator, Miami's third DC in as many years.

    The last and only time we saw Weaver as a DC was with the Houston Texans in 2020. Houston had by far the worst run defense that season and allowed the sixth-most points overall. Weaver's Texans blitzed at the ninth-highest rate but finished right in line with the league average sack rate and forced the fewest turnovers in the NFL. Since then, he's worked as the defensive line coach for the Baltimore Ravens.

    The Dolphins gave Jaylen Waddle a massive extension, and an even bigger deal is expected to be given to Tua Tagovailoa soon. As a result, Miami had to let a lot of defensive talent walk in free agency this summer. Interior defensive line staple Christian Wilkins, linebackers Jerome Baker and Andrew Van Ginkel, and safeties Deshon Elliott and Brandon Jones all moved on. That group combined for 3,560 defensive snaps in 2023.

    Vegas lookahead lines have the Dolphins implied for the fourth-most points scored in 2024, and yet Miami is tied for 10th in implied win total (9.5). Do you feel the shifting winds in Miami?

    The Dolphins were playing with a lead on 50% of offensive drives in 2023, only the 49ers, Ravens, and Lions had a higher rate. Miami was one of four teams to play with a double-digit lead on 50+ separate drives and one of two to play with a 20+ point lead on 20+ different drives. As a result, we saw Miami run the ball an abnormal amount. The Dolphins ranked 17th in pass rate (57%) on the year. But, their rate when leading or trailing by six or fewer points was the third-highest at 63%.

    Notable offensive line changes

    • Lost guard Robert Hunt and center Connor Williams in free agency
    • Signed center Aaron Brewer in free agency
    • Selected left tackle Patrick Paul in Round 2

    Connor Williams only played in nine games, but PFF graded him as the second-best run blocking center and the seventh-best pass blocker at his position. His replacement ranked 7th in run blocking grade and 27th in pass blocking.

    Robert Hunt is a significant loss too, PFF graded him ninth in run blocking among guards and seventh in pass blocking. Miami's guard spot was a revolving door in 2023, four different guards played between 7-11 games. With Hunt gone, the remaining three will assume that work. Hunt's overall PFF grade was 76.4, the three Dolphin guards remaining on the depth chart received grades of 57.6, 45.4, and 43.2.

    The biggest investment made into the O-Line was a long-term one. Patrick Paul is an exciting prospect, but 2024 will hopefully be a developmental year for him. Assuming health (never a safe assumption with Terron Armstead), the strength of this line is at the tackle spots.

    The Dolphins ranked 16th in pass blocking grade and 19th in run blocking grade in 2023, which is pretty impressive given the myriad of injuries. What's more impressive is that Mike McDaniel's scheme created even with middling offensive line play. The Dolphins had by far the quickest time to throw (2.35 seconds, the average was 2.82 and the next-lowest was 2.56), as well as the lowest QB pressure rate (24.9%, the average was 36% and the next-lowest was 29.8%). Miami also ranked first in rush success rate on RB attempts -- it wasn't just the big plays, this team was consistently producing wins in the run game.

    Miami's offensive line will be worse on paper in 2024. I'm not sure how much it matters. The Dolphins ranked 29th in PFF pass grade in 2022 and still had the 10th-lowest sack per dropback rate.

    If McDaniel's scheme can recreate that outcome, we could see some entertaining back-and-forth high-scoring football in the Hard Rock Stadium.

    Which Dolphins players will be worth targeting and avoiding in 2024 Fantasy drafts? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Jacob Gibbs' Do Not Draft list, all from one of the nation's most-accurate rankers!

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    Jacob Gibbs
    Jacob GibbsDFS Guru

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