Fantasy Football 2023: Why pass-game targets are so important for RBs, and who you should target in drafts

The NFL continues to evolve into a more pass-heavy league, and a direct result of that evolution is the way in which Fantasy points are accrued at the RB position. The number of backs who pile up 300-plus rushing attempts has steadily dropped over the years, while the number of backs demanding high target totals seems to continually rise.

For Fantasy purposes, targets are worth significantly more than rushing attempts.

Fantasy points per opportunity in 2022:

Even in non-PPR formats, a running back target -- not an actual reception, simply being targeted -- is worth more than a RB rush attempt. In full PPR formats, an RB target is worth nearly three times as much as a RB rush attempt!

SportsLine's Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs says the data he's collected indicates that as a result of the changing landscape of the Fantasy RB position, a running back needs a realistic path to 80-plus targets to bring RB1 upside. Even in seasons where seemingly everything went right for Derrick Henry as an explosive rusher, his limited passing game involvement kept him from finishing any higher than RB3 in Fantasy. In 2022, Miles Sanders rushed for 1,269 yards and 11 touchdowns to Leonard Fournette's 668 yards and three TDs on the ground, yet Fournette finished with more PPR points. There were 34 running backs who rushed for more yardage than Fournette in 2022, and yet he finished 12th at the position in PPR scoring. How? Fournette was one of just four running backs who topped 80 targets in 2022.

In addition to these anecdotal cases from recent seasons, Gibbs also found compelling data that indicates that running backs who hit a certain target threshold are near guarantees to finish as top-12 Fantasy options at the position. He presented 14 different backs who have a range of outcomes that gives them a reasonable chance of hitting that target threshold and detailed what set of circumstances are most likely to result in a top range of outcomes result in 2023.

What key info do you need to know to select the right RBs to win your Fantasy league? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Jacob Gibbs' running back target analysis, plus get the entire 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Bible, all from one of the nation's most-accurate rankers!

To have RB1 upside, the targets MUST be there

Over the past 10 seasons, Fantasy's RB1 has averaged 380.2 PPR points. Seven of the 10 backs to finish as RB1 during that time topped 370 PPR points, with Devonta Freeman (316.4 PPR points in 2015) and Jonathan Taylor (360.6 PPR points in 2021) standing out as outlier RB1 finishers during seasons where there was no dominant Fantasy RB.

Finishing as the actual RB1 in any individual season is rather arbitrary -- Freeman's 2015 would have ranked him outside of the top five at the position in three of the past 10 seasons, for instance. For the purposes of this article, I chose to focus on backs who have scored 370 PPR points, rather than backs who finished as the RB1 in any given year. It felt like a truer representation of the type of upside we are searching for -- even if it is admittedly still somewhat arbitrary.

There have been 10 backs to reach the 370 PPR point mark over the past 10 seasons, and that group had one important commonality: They all earned 80-plus targets, with the average actually coming in at 112. Only two of those 370-plus point seasons (both belonging to Todd Gurley) were not accompanied by 100-plus targets; Gurley got there with a cool average of 20 touchdowns during his two 370-plus point seasons.

So, to finish as the RB1 in Fantasy, running backs have typically needed at least 80 targets (17-game pace of 85 targets). I believe 85-plus targets is reasonably within the range of outcomes for 12 different backs. Some RBs with notably high average draft positions that are not among that group of 12 are Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, Jonathan Taylor, Aaron Jones and Kenneth Walker.

Route involvement rates

To have RB1 upside, the targets must be there. And for the targets to be there, the routes must be there. Displayed below is the percentage of their team's dropbacks that each RB ran a route on in games that they didn't leave with an injury.

So, we know which teams are getting their backs involved as route runners at the highest rate. That doesn't necessarily guarantee a high route run or target total, though.

Below, you'll see how Harris stacks up when compared to the rest of the RB position in routes run during the 2021 season.

2022 RB route run leaders:

RB target thresholds

Below I laid out the average Fantasy finish in PPR formats of running backs (dating back to 2000) with at least 150 carries who fell into each target threshold. The 150-carry mark was arbitrary -- it was just to eliminate specialists like James White. Half-PPR results are in parentheses.

The point totals used to determine "Top-12" and "Top-3" rates were based off of the 17-game average point total of the RB3 and RB12 scorer across the past five seasons. The cut-off for "Top-12 rate" was 220 PPR points and 200 half-PPR points. The cut-off for "Top-3 rate" was 320 PPR points and 295 half-PPR points.

Group 1: Running backs who could push for 85-100 targets

Those Top-12 rates are insane! 22 of 25 backs from this group scored more than 220 PPR points! This group purposely excluded running backs who had more than 100 targets so as to not inflate the results, and still the group averaged 19.7 PPR points per game.

RBs with a realistic range of outcomes that could result in 85-plus targets in 2023: Miles Sanders, Rachaad White, Antonio Gibson, James Cook, Breece Hall, Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard, Joe Mixon, Jahmyr Gibbs, Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey

Miles Sanders, Carolina Panthers

Miles Sanders is one of just six running backs to finish with 500-plus receiving yards as a rookie since 2010. The only back other than Sanders from that group to not top 80 targets in at least one season was Giovani Bernard, and that was not for any inability to draw targets. Bernard had a career 23% target per route run rate and pushed that rate into the 25-27% range in multiple seasons. He just wasn't a full-time player.

Even Saquon Barkley, who has a more modest target per route run rate of 20.6% in the seasons following his rookie campaign, has regularly pushed into the 80-target range through total route run volume. That could be the model for Sanders, whose single-season high for TPRR during his time in Philadelphia was 19.9%.

13.8% of Bryce Young's career pass attempts were targeted at the RB position during his time at Alabama, which is up from a group average of 12.7% among quarterbacks drafted into the NFL over the past five years. The top-projected target shares on Carolina belong to Adam Thielen, D.J. Chark, Jonathan Mingo, and Hayden Hurst. No one from that group has accumulated any data in recent years that inspires confidence in their ability to demand targets at even a league-average rate.

Someone on Carolina's roster is going to receive targets. If his first reads struggle to create separation, it's possible that Young ends up dumping it off to Sanders at a really high rate. I only have Sanders projected for 51 targets, but there's so much ambiguity in Carolina's projection. Even though I very much doubt that he gets anywhere close to the 85-target mark, I wanted to kick things off here by highlighting the volatility involved with Sanders' target projection and the type of upside that comes with that volatility. People seem to be drafting Sanders as if "we know what he is," but it's possible that the Fantasy version of Sanders in his Carolina role is completely different from what we saw in Philadelphia.

Saquon Barkley, New York Giants

As alluded to already, Saquon's target rates have dropped significantly following an outlier rookie campaign with Eli Manning at QB.

Barkley's target and yard per route run rates by season:

Does Barkley have a chance to reach the 85-target mark? I don't really see a realistic path to that happening as long unless Daniel Jones (and Tyrod Taylor, his backup) isn't healthy. Even with a massive 65% route involvement rate in 2022, Barkley only finished with 76 targets. People continue to view him as one of the league's premier receiving backs, so I wanted to feature him in this space. The recent receiving rates for Barkley do not paint him as someone who belongs here. He ranked 21st among 33 qualified backs in yards per route run in 2022.

Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Leonard Fournette totaled 83 targets in 2022, and Rachaad White chipped in with 58 of his own. Of course, Tampa Bay won't produce nearly as many total targets in 2023 with Baker Mayfield replacing Tom Brady. I have the Bucs projected for 33 pass attempts per game, which is down from a historically-high 44.2 number in 2022. I have Tampa Bay's RB position projected for 18.2% target share, down from 19% in 2022. I have the '"TB RB" position's season-long target total set at 102. White projects for 60 targets, but it's entirely possible that he could push much higher than that.

It came on a super small sample size, but White's collegiate data as a pass-catcher was exciting. He drew targets at a higher per-route rate (22.7%) than Fournette (21.3%) in 2022, and Fournette is a proven pass-catcher with 80-plus targets in three of his past four seasons -- immediately drawing targets at a higher rate while sharing the backfield with Fournette is impressive.

Breece Hall, New York Jets

Breece Hall is certainly a risky pick. We don't know what his role or effectiveness will look like after a rookie-season ACL tear. We also don't know what the effectiveness of New York's offense will look like with a new quarterback and offensive coordinator. And to top it off, the Jets gave Dalvin Cook a one-year deal worth up to $8.6 million.

I have to at least mention Hall in this space, though. What we saw during his rookie season leaves open the possibility of just about anything for Hall as a receiver in 2023. He drew a target on a ridiculous 28.7% of his 108 routes run, and in the three games Hall was allowed to run more than 12 routes, he finished with target totals of 6, 9, and 11. For reference, the only other running backs to record multiple games with nine-plus targets in 2022 were Christian McCaffrey (five such instances), Austin Ekeler (also five), Alvin Kamara (three), Joe Mixon (three), and Leonard Fournette (two). Hall did it in 2 of 3 opportunities. Among running backs with 100-plus routes run, only D'Andre Swift (29.7%) and Austin Ekeler (29.5%) had a higher target per route run rate than Hall.

20.7% of Aaron Rodgers' pass attempts were targeted at the RB position in 2022, the NFL's seventh-highest rate. Over the past three seasons, only Justin Herbert and Derek Carr have targeted the position at a higher rate than Rodgers. It's worth noting that Joe Flacco's rate was all the way up at 25.8% through Week 7, at which point Breece Hall was lost for the season. So, Rodgers doesn't necessarily present a target distribution upgrade over Hall's 2022 situation. But, as far as replacement quarterbacks go, Hall couldn't have asked for much better.

With Dalvin Cook added to the equation, there's a good chance that Hall is eased into action in Year 2. His probability of hitting 85-plus targets is extremely low with Cook factored into his projection. However, it absolutely would not surprise me if Hall was averaging well over five targets per game (the number required to hit 85 targets over 17 games) over the season's final 6-8 weeks. I updated my rankings to reflect the Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook signings (find them here), and Hall came in ranked as the RB14 for half-PPR formats. When it really matters, during the Fantasy playoff stretch run, I expect that Hall will be the clear lead back and a featured part of the passing attack for a high-scoring Jets offense.

Antonio Gibson, Washington Commanders

The Commanders have a new offensive coordinator and a new QB, so there's really no way to confidently project this team's volume. Sam Howell brings mobility, which typically means fewer dump-offs to the RB position. At North Carolina, Howell targeted the RB position at an extremely high rate (17.8% of his attempts) when he had Javonte Williams and Michael Carter at his disposal, but we saw that rate shrink all the way to 8.6% in his final season as Howell took it upon himself to move the chains with his legs more often.

Which version of Howell that we see in 2023 could be the determining factor in Antonio Gibson's Fantasy viability. With the type of route involvement that Gibson seems likely to have available to him, it's possible that he's one of the most undervalued PPR assets according to current average draft position data.

The Commanders ranked 20th in the NFL with 554 pass attempts in 2022; I have them projected for 540 in 2023. There's plenty of room for more. If Gibson runs a route on 58% of 540 opportunities, his route run total would be 313. If he draws targets at the same per-route rate that he did in 2022 (24.4%) on 313 routes run, the result would be 77 targets. His career rate (23.1%) would result in 72 targets.

What would it take to push Gibson into the 85-plus target range? At his 24.4% target per route run rate, Gibson would require 348 routes to reach 85 targets. To get to a route total of 348 on a 58% route involvement rate, Gibson would require the Commanders to produce 600 pass attempts. I don't expect Washington to push that high, but there were eight different teams who did in 2022 -- it's possible.

Does Gibson really belong in this article? Probably not. The probability of him getting anywhere near 85 targets is low. I wanted to highlight his name here, though, because it feels as if most Fantasy players have forgotten or moved on from Gibson after being let down by him recently. What was holding Gibson back from the high-flying dual-threat PPR point printing role that so many envisioned for him? J.D. McKissic, J.D. McKissic has been the thorn in Gibson's Fantasy side for three years! He's finally gone, though, and the Commanders let Gibson fill his role when McKissic was injured last season. Gibson absolutely could re-emerge as a forgotten post-hype sleeper.

James Cook, Buffalo Bills

The percentage of Josh Allen's passes that were targeted at the RB position has increased in each of the past two seasons and rose from 14% to 20% from 2021 to 2022. 2022 marked the first season of Allen's career in which he targeted the RB position at a rate that was above the NFL average.

The Bills are expected to continue to make efforts to protect the longevity of their franchise centerpiece, which could involve fewer rushing attempts and more targets for the RB position. Buffalo has made a concentrated effort to add a pass-catching threat to the RB room for years now, and James Cook is that guy. As a rookie, Cook was targeted on 25.6% of his routes. Only nine of 65 running backs with 100-plus routes run posted a higher rate. And, to me, the most exciting part of Cook's rookie season receiving data was his average depth of target.

As Dwain McFarland explained on Beyond the Boxscore, a positive aDOT indicates that a running back is more involved in the offense as one of the first reads rather than simply being a dump-off option. Historically, the running backs who pop up with positive aDOTs are pass-catching specialists like Nyheim Hines and true dual-threat weapons like Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara. Cook profiled as having that type of upside as a pass-catcher entering the league, and nothing that we saw in Year 1 disproved it.

So, just how high could Cook's hypothetical target total push in 2023? I have the Bills projected for 700 dropbacks in 2023; their 17-game pace in 2022 was 704.4. Devin Singletary had a 58% route involvement rate in 2022, and that was with a legitimate pass-catching threat in his backfield. Neither Damien Harris nor Latavius Murray profile as much of a threat to take Cook off the field on passing downs; so it feels realistic that Cook could push for that 58% rate. He could push way above it. Simply because I don't feel confident in how many total snaps the Bills are going to feel comfortable allowing the 190-pound Cook to play, I have him projected for a 55% route involvement rate. I could see that rate pushing as high as 65%, though. We are dealing with a really wide range of outcomes for Cook in Year 2.

A route involvement rate displays the percentage of dropbacks on which a player is involved as a route runner. 55% of 700 dropbacks would result in 385 routes run for Cook. With 385 route running opportunities available to him, Cook would need a 22.1% target per route run rate to hit 85 targets.

So, with no increase in total team pass attempts for the Bills, Cook could reach the 85-target mark even with a much lower target per route run rate and a lower route involvement rate than Devin Singletary had in 2022. What would it take for him to push for 100-plus targets?

Let's imagine that the Bills produce 725 dropbacks. Five teams did it in 2022, and it's entirely possible that Buffalo leans more pass-heavy than ever with Cook as their primary RB. Within a 725 dropback framework, just a 55% route involvement rate and 25.1% TPRR rate would produce 100 targets.

I have Cook projected for 64 targets. Let's slow down a bit. It's quite unlikely that he'll push for 100 or even 85 targets in his second season. There is a somewhat realistic path for him to get into that range, though, as Buffalo's offense could produce an extremely high number of route running opportunities and Cook really doesn't have much backfield competition.

Over the past five seasons, there have been 19 running backs to finish with 85-plus targets. The only ones among that group who did not rank as a top-12 Fantasy RB were Tarik Cohen, James White, and J.D. McKissic. James Cook currently comes off the board as the RB27 on average.

Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys

Just how high could Tony Pollard fly as the clear-cut RB1 in Dallas?

In the limited sample that we have of Pollard playing without Zeke, his route involvement rate is elite. Without any clear competition for passing down snaps on the roster, Pollard absolutely could rank among the top running backs in route involvement rate in 2023.

I have the Cowboys projected for 565 pass attempts in 2023, up slightly from their 2022 total of 556. It's possible that they'll pass less without Kellen Moore calling the plays, but as I consider the relative depth at the WR and RB positions on this team, it feels unlikely that the Cowboys are going to take the ball out of Dak Prescott's hands in an attempt to establish the run. With 565 projected pass attempts, a 67% route involvement rate for Pollard would result in 379 routes run and require just a 22.5% target per route run rate to reach 85 targets. To push for 100 targets on 379 routes, Pollard would need a 26.4% target per route run rate. His career rate is 23.4%, and Pollard's single-season high is 27.5%.

565 pass attempts is not very many, it would have ranked 17th last year. If the Cowboys push up towards 600, then Pollard's potential target total could really get out of hand. I have him projected for 69 targets, but there's clearly upside for much more than that.

Group 2: Running backs who could push for 100-120 targets

Elite target volume is a near-guarantee for a top-three finish at the RB position in Fantasy. Of the running backs who have finished with 100-120 targets since 2010, only Leonard Fournette did not post a "Top-3" worthy PPR score. He finished as the RB7 in PPR and RB9 in half-PPR that year. What a disappointment.

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Mixon in the "100+ target" group with Jahmyr Gibbs, Austin Ekeler, and Christian McCaffrey?! Have I lost my mind? When it comes to Joe Mixon's 2023 projection, I sometimes feel as if I have -- this dude was a legitimate cut candidate earlier this summer. As it currently stands, though, Mixon faces almost no competition for a three-down role in an offense that I have projected for the second-most total plays.

If Mixon gets the third-down role that belonged to Samaje Perine and is targeted at anywhere near the per-route rate that he was in 2022, his receiving numbers could be among the best at the RB position.  

A conceivable reality exists in which Mixon fills a three-down role that would all-but guarantee a top-five Fantasy RB finish in Cincinnati's offense. I hate it, but Mixon is my most-drafted running back in Best Ball formats (find my Best Ball rankings here) -- he's just too cheap! He's the RB15 according to the most recent Underdog Fantasy ADP -- nobody wants him.

Mixon really was terrible by most metrics in 2022, and he finished as the RB10 in Fantasy in just 14 games. Even if he doesn't get the third-down role, an ADP of RB15 feels like a price that Mixon can certainly return value on. If he gets the third-down role, Mixon will be a lock for top-10 Fantasy RB production through volume alone. We saw Rhamondre Stevenson finish as the RB7 in this type of a role in 2022 in a completely dysfunctional Patriots offense.

Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions

There's a reason that the Lions were ecstatic to use the 12th overall pick to add a running back -- that running back is unlike anything we have seen recently as a pass-catching weapon.

Displayed below is how Jahmyr Gibbs stacks up relative to other highly-lauded receiving RB prospects on a career targets per route run and yards per route run rate basis (minimum 300 routes).

In terms of collegiate receiving data, Gibbs ran laps around the man he'll replace in Detroit's offense, D'Andre Swift.

That's super exciting, because we have seen Jared Goff and the Lions target Swift at an extremely high rate when he's been healthy enough to take the field. It was not Christian McCaffrey who led the RB position in target per route run rate (26.7%) in 2022. No, it wasn't Austin Ekeler (29.3%), either. D'Andre Swift led all RBs with a 29.7% rate! His career rate (26.5%) is the third-highest at the position since he entered the league in 2020.

This role is tailor-made for Gibbs, and there's really no telling to what type of PPR potential he will bring as a featured piece for the Lions. I have Detroit projected for 598 pass attempts in 2023, up slightly from 588 in 2022. Before getting injured in 2022, Swift had a 61% route involvement rate. I'm projecting Gibbs for a 60% rate, which would give him 359 routes run. Displayed below are the target per route run rates that Gibbs would need to hit varying target totals on 359 routes run.

85 targets -- 23.7%
100 targets -- 27.9%
110 targets -- 30.6%
120 targets -- 33.4%

Typically, we see running back target per route run rates rise from college to the pros. Gibbs was targeted on 26.4% of his career collegiate routes and pushed his rate above 30% in two seasons. It's realistic that he could push into the 110-plus target range as a rookie, which would make it difficult for him to not finish as a top-12 Fantasy RB.

Dating back to 2000, there have been 28 running backs to finish with 100-plus targets in a season. The group average was a whopping 329 PPR points, and of that group, Tarik Cohen, J.D. McKissic, and Darren Sproles are the only ones that didn't top 220 PPR points. For reference, only two running backs had more than 329 PPR points in 2022, and only 14 topped 220.

I'm not expecting much goal line work for Gibbs. I only have him projected for 171 rushing attempts and 800 rushing yards. David Montgomery projects as one of the best values at the RB position, in my opinion. The receiving upside for Gibbs is simply too much to ignore, though, especially in full-PPR formats. If drafting in multiple leagues or playing in Best Ball formats, it feels irresponsible to not get some exposure to Gibbs. We almost never see analytical profiles like this.

Group 3: Running backs who could push for 120+ targets

Running backs who ascend to this level of target dominance are straight-up cheat codes for Fantasy. Austin Ekeler led all Fantasy RBs with 372 PPR points in 2022, and that performance ranks second-to-last among this group. Running backs from this group win Fantasy leagues. We know that Christian McCaffrey and Ekeler have what it takes to get here, the real question is could we see Jahmyr Gibbs join this group in 2023? Saquon Barkley did it as a rookie. CMC and David Johnson did it during their second pro seasons. It's possible that Gibbs could reach these heights as a rookie.

Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers

I don't have much to add on Christian McCaffrey; you know who he is. It's worth noting that his route involvement rate during his time with San Francisco (not including his limited first appearance) was slightly higher than it was in Carolina. Also noteworthy: CMC's highest single-season target per route run rate across his first four years in the league was 25.4%. He's topped that in each of his past two seasons -- 26% was his rate with the 49ers last year -- and has a combined rate of 28.6% across the 2021-22 seasons.

McCaffrey is at the height of his powers and is playing with a QB who is likely to lean on him. Brock Purdy's 6.7-yard average depth of target was the fourth-lowest among quarterbacks with 150-plus attempts in 2022, and he tied Justin Herbert with the highest percentage of attempts (24.7%) targeting the RB position.

Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers

I have CMC projected to lead the NFL with 96 targets; Austin Ekeler (89) and Gibbs (84) are the only two backs who come close in my projections. With Justin Herbert recovered from a nagging rib injury and freed from Joe Lombardi's instruction, I expect Ekeler's inflated 29.5% target per route run rate to dip to something more closely resembling his 26.8% career rate prior to 2022. In 2021, Ekeler's rate was all the way down at 22.5%, so a precipitous drop-off isn't totally out of the question. The Chargers should be expected to push the ball downfield far more often with Kellen Moore calling the plays.

The Chargers are who I have projected to lead the NFL in both offensive plays and passing attempts in 2023, so even with a drop in his target per route run rate, Ekeler still should have no problem eclipsing the 85-target threshold. And if his TPRR rate remains in the 28-30% range, another 120-plus targets is realistic.