Fantasy Football 2021: Touchdown regression ahead for Aaron Rodgers, Terry McLaurin and 25 other notable names

Unlike other professional sports, which may have as many as 10 times the number of regular-season games, the NFL simply doesn't provide us with a large enough sample size to feel confident that one year's worth of data provides an accurate representation of what we should expect from a player. When dealing with a sample size as small as 16 games, outliers are an inevitability. And if outliers are an inevitability, then you can bet on regression as an inevitability as well. Generally, with time, outliers at both the top and bottom-end regress to whatever their "mean" is.

The small sample size certainly factors in heavily, but another important difference between Fantasy football and other Fantasy sports is the weight given to one particularly unpredictable stat: touchdowns. Touchdowns are worth more Fantasy points than any accruable stat in any other major Fantasy sport, and they are among the hardest to predict.

As such, a stat I created that I will reference quite a bit when discussing regression is a player's touchdown dependency rating (TDR). It simply represents the percentage of a player's Fantasy points that came from touchdowns. The league average among non-QBs was 22.3 percent, among running backs was 22.8 percent, and among wide receivers was 18.8 percent.

Positive regression candidates

Washington WR Terry McLaurin

TDR: 10.7%

A receiver's target per route run rate is one of the most important metrics to consider for Fantasy. I published an article titled "Advanced Fantasy football metrics that matter: Identify 2021 breakouts with target per route run data," and McLaurin was one of the featured players. He improved on his TPRR from Year 1 to Year 2, finishing with a respectable top-25 rate. He actually boasted a top-10 TPRR rate prior to injuring his ankle in Week 11, though. And his splits from that point on suggest that the ankle really limited him. His TPRR decreased from 23 percent to 19.8 percent, and his YPRR decreased from 2.16 to 1.42, a massive 35 percent drop that's basically the difference between Tyreek Hill and Kendrick Bourne.

With better health and better QB play, McLaurin's efficiency should be massively improved in 2021. Also note that only Robby Anderson, Jakobi Meyers and Cooper Kupp had a lower TDR among qualified WRs.

Chargers RB Austin Ekeler

TDR: 10.9%

Ekeler's 21.4% TDR in 2019 was near the league average, but it was cut in half in 2020, when only J.D. McKissic and Devin Singletary were lower among qualified backs.

His usage when healthy last year was among the best you'll find at the RB position. Ekeler's 16-game pace for targets in games he played with Justin Herbert at QB was 126! He has all the makings of a top-eight Fantasy RB in any sort of PPR format if he has better luck finding the end zone in 2021.

Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott

TDR: 21.5%

Zeke's 26 carries from inside the 5-yard line led the NFL, even with Dallas' offense struggling mightily after Dak Prescott went down. But guess what his 16-game pace for carries from inside the 5 was prior to Dak's injury? 45!

The weird thing is that Zeke had one of the lowest TD dependency scores at the RB position, even with all those goal line carries. Only seven backs had a lower score. After scoring on 56 percent of his carries from inside the 5 in 2019, Zeke scored on just 19.2 percent in 2020.

More positive regression candidates

Chiefs RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire: 17% TDR. Piling up well over 1,000 scrimmage yards with just five touchdowns on the best offense in the NFL is pretty rare for a player at any position.

Vikings WR Justin Jefferson: 15.3% TDR. See below: Thielen, Adam.

Cowboys WR Amari Cooper, Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins, and Falcons WR Julio Jones: 12.5% TDR. These guys are just too good. I wouldn't be surprised if they all improved on this rate in 2021.

Panthers WR D.J. Moore: 11.3% TDR. I'm not super confident that Sam Darnold is going to unlock things for this offense, but it is tough to believe that both Moore and Robby Anderson will rank among the bottom 10 receivers in this rate in back-to-back seasons.

49ers TE George Kittle: 9.6% TDR. This number is way too low. I would expect it to double in 2021.

Rams WR Cooper Kupp: 8.6% TDR. Scoring only three touchdowns on 118 targets is pretty statistically improbable.

Giants TE Evan Engram: 8.5% TDR. Scoring only one touchdown on 102 targets is even more statistically improbable.

Patriots WR Jakobi Meyers: 8.2% TDR. You know what is damn near statistically impossible? Throwing two touchdowns on two pass attempts but finding the end zone zero times as a receiver on 78 targets.

Panthers WR Robby Anderson: 8% TDR. 134 targets. Three trips to the end zone to show for it. Feels bad, man.

Negative regression candidates

Vikings WR Adam Thielen

TDR: 33.1%

Thielen's TDR was the highest rating of any receiver to run at least 400 routes over the past five seasons, which are the years I have the data available for. That's not the only reason to expect his numbers to be different in 2021; his role could be completely different than it was to begin last season. For over half of the 2020 season, Thielen was "the guy" in this offense. That will not be the case in 2021; Justin Jefferson is absolutely the alpha in this offense.

Jefferson wasn't even a full-time player in Minnesota's offense until Week 11, but the splits between him and Thielen from that point on indicate that Jefferson was the clear-cut alpha from that point on.

Jefferson's snap rate

Prior to Week 11: 74%
From Week 11 on: 90%

Target share (percentage of the team's total targets)

Prior to Week 11:
Thielen: 26.8%
Jefferson: 22.6%

From Week 11 on:
Thielen: 19.8%
Jefferson: 26.4%

Air yardage share (percentage of the team's total air yards)

Prior to Week 11:
Thielen: 40.1%
Jefferson: 32.4%

From Week 11 on:
Thielen: 27.7%
Jefferson: 42.3%

Red-zone targets

Prior to Week 11:
Thielen: 20
Jefferson: 9

From Week 11 on:
Thielen: 10
Jefferson: 19

Not only is Thielen's Fantasy total from 2020 inflated by exceptional luck finding the end zone, but it is simply representative of an entirely different situation than the one he'll find himself in 2021. Few players are more likely to see their production regress than Thielen in his age-31 season.

Dolphins WR Will Fuller

TDR: 25.4%

On top of the general regression that was likely to come for him in the touchdown department after he had the 12th-highest TDR among 77 qualified pass-catchers, Fuller is going from an absolutely ideal setup in Houston to one in Miami that presents all sorts of problems for his Fantasy outlook. He'll be suspended for the first game of the season, and after that, he'll find himself in a significantly worse situation than the one in which he thrived last year.

He was the clear top target on a pass-heavy Texans team -- one which also frequently had to aggressively attack downfield in an attempt to erase deficits on the scoreboard. The setup was perfectly suited to his skill set, and Fuller delivered strong results. 

Still, though, we have never seen Fuller show an ability to command targets at a rate that was even above average, and he will certainly have plenty of competition for targets in 2021. For his career, Fuller has been targeted on just 19 percent of his routes -- for reference, the league average was 19.5 percent in 2020. Even in 2020, Fuller was targeted on just 19.7 percent of his routes.

Now he heads to Miami, where DeVante Parker has already established himself as a target hog when healthy. Parker ranked 20th among 92 qualifiers with a 22 percent target per route run rate in 2020 -- ahead of the likes of Adam Thielen, Terry McLaurin, Amari Cooper, and Tyler Lockett. And, for what it's worth, Parker's TPRR rate was actually higher (22.5 percent) with Tua Tagovailoa at QB than Ryan Fitzpatrick, so the narrative that Fitz's gunslinger mentality is what has driven Parker's volume doesn't seem to hold much weight. Parker isn't Fuller's only competition for targets, either. Miami used the sixth overall pick on Jaylen Waddle, who will likely start in the slot from Day 1. Waddle has question marks of his own, but he definitely has the talent to ball out with Fuller sidelined in Week 1 and never look back.

Fuller's problems don't stop at the competition for targets; there also will simply be fewer total targets to go around than in Houston. The Texans ranked third in the NFL in pass-to-run rate in 2020, while Miami ranked 18th. The Dolphins have a ton of young talent on the defensive side of the ball too, so it's unlikely they'll find themselves needing to attack downfield nearly as often as Fuller's Texans did in 2020.

On that note, it's time we talk about the drastic change in going from Deshaun Watson to Tua Tagovailoa. Watson was the only QB in the NFL to complete over 50 percent of his attempts on passes that traveled at least 20 air yards in 2020. He's been among the league's absolute best deep passers in recent memory. We haven't seen enough of Tua at the NFL level to say that he can't throw the deep ball, but we have seen enough to say that he can't throw it like Deshaun Watson. For a deep-ball specialist like Fuller, transitioning from Watson to Tua is like trading in a Ferrari for a used Honda Civic.

Since 2016, 27.2 percent of Fuller's targets have come at least 20 air yards downfield, which is the highest mark of qualified receivers. Fuller has been the single most deep-ball dependent wide receiver in the NFL since entering the league, and Tua ranked just 21st in deep ball rate (10.8 percent) in 2020. 

I don't see very many paths to Fuller justifying his ADP with his setup in Miami, and the selection of Waddle with the sixth overall pick felt like the nail in the coffin. Regression is coming.

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers

TDR: 63.8%

Both Aaron Rodgers' 9.1 percent touchdown rate and his 63.8% TDR in 2020 were the highest rates we've seen from any QB in the past 10 seasons. Here's what has happened in the following season for the other QBs who have had a touchdown rate above 8% since 2010:

Lamar Jackson: 9% (2019) to 6.9%
Patrick Mahomes: 8.6% (2018) to 5.4%
Peyton Manning: 8.3% (2013) to 6.5%
Nick Foles: 8.5% (2013) to 4.2%
Aaron Rodgers: 9% (2011) to 7.1%

On average, their touchdown rate dropped by 31.6 percent. If Rodgers' 2020 rate dropped by 31.6 percent, that's 15 fewer touchdowns.

Of course, no one is drafting him assuming that he will throw 48 touchdowns again, but the point remains the same. Regression is coming, and QB is such a deep position. I would rather not overpay for a 38-year-old QB whose touchdown rate in the two seasons prior to 2020 was literally half of what it was last year.

More negative regression candidates

Patriots TE Jonnu Smith: 38.5% TDR. That number is almost certain to go down while playing in a Patriots offense that finished with a league-low 12 passing touchdowns in 2020.

Packers TE Robert Tonyan: 37.4% TDR. Tonyan is likely to remain a touchdown-dependent player. He is unlikely to remain able to find the end zone on one out of every five catches.

Browns RB Nick Chubb: 34.7% TDR. Jeff Wilson was the only RB with a higher rate than Chubb in 2020.

Washington RB Antonio Gibson: 32.6% TDR. Scoring 11 touchdowns will be tough to repeat, even on an improved Washington offense.

Lions RB D'Andre Swift: 31.6% TDR. Scoring 10 touchdowns will be really tough to repeat on a not-so-improved Detroit offense.

Raiders RBs Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake: Both 31.2% TDR, weirdly enough. Surely we won't get 20-plus touchdowns from the Raiders backfield.

Broncos RB Melvin Gordon: 30.2% TDR. Unless Aaron Rodgers comes to town, Gordon has almost no chance of repeating last year's 10 touchdowns while splitting time in one of the league's lowest-scoring offenses.

Ravens WR Marquise Brown: 26.2% TDR. Hollywood was ninth among qualified receivers in TDR. I think Rashod Bateman is the far superior prospect and is likely to cut into Brown's role in 2021.