Fantasy football 2021 rest of season WR rankings: A.J. Brown leaps into Tier 1, plus top 70 at position
Now eight weeks into the season, even wide receivers like Tee Higgins and A.J. Brown who dealt with injuries to start the season have nearly topped the 200-route mark, and we're getting close to having a trustworthy sample size to draw conclusions from. 350 is the number of routes I typically use as a qualifier if examining a full season's worth of data, but there is a notable dropoff in volatility around the 150-route mark as well.
Chris Godwin leads the league with 342 routes run, and 71 players are already over the 200-route mark. We're at the point in the season where we have just enough data to feel reasonably confident in our understanding of the types of roles these receivers are playing. Surprisingly stellar usage for players like Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, and Marquise Brown becomes more and more likely to stick with each passing week. The elevated rates we've seen from budding superstars like Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, and Terry McLaurin are beginning to look like legitimately trustworthy trends that support the upward trajectory most expected their careers to continue to follow in 2021.
And even at this point, we're still learning new things at the WR position with each passing week. After evaluating the data and sharing What We Learned in Week 8, I'm ready to lay out my rest-of-season rankings at the wide receiver position heading into Week 9. Here's where I'm ranking each WR going forward, given the data we have through eight weeks.
Tiered rest of season WR rankings
Tier 1
1. Davante Adams
2. Tyreek Hill
3. Cooper Kupp
4. A.J. Brown (+2)
Tier 2
5. Justin Jefferson (-1)
6. Stefon Diggs (-1)
7. DK Metcalf (+1)
Notable changes:
What a wild ride it has been to have A.J. Brown on your Fantasy roster this season! At the depths of despair, Brown reached as low as Tier 4 in my rest of season rankings. So, it felt terrific to place him in Tier 1 following another massive performance in Week 8.
The Week 8 performance was just a small part of Brown's ascent, though. His underlying usage data has been extremely encouraging for multiple consecutive weeks, and that data backed up two years worth of data that pointed towards Brown as one of the most efficient early-career contributors of all time.
And, as unfortunate as Derrick Henry's potential season-ending injury is, Brown undoubtedly stands to benefit from it. We have no way of knowing to what degree the Titans will adjust their pass-to-run rate, but it seems unlikely that they will remain one of the league's most run-heavy teams with a 36-year-old Adrian Peterson leading the way.
More passing means more route running opportunities for A.J. Brown, one of the most efficient per-route producers in the NFL. Brown has seen 50 percent of Tennessee's air yards and 35 percent of the targets over the past three weeks. If the Titans increase their dropback rate by even 10-15 percent, Brown will absolutely belong in Tier 1. If Tennessee's rate increases by more than that, Brown could very easily rank as the WR1 from this point on.
Which other WRs jumped up the rankings with great Week 8 performances? And which WRs are moving out of startable territory? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' rest of season Fantasy Football Rankings, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!
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