The Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints are set to square off in a Week 1 NFC South matchup at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, September 11 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Marcus Mariota is the new starting quarterback in Atlanta after Matt Ryan was traded to the Indianapolis Colts this past offseason, while Jameis Winston is taking over as the full-time starter for the Saints. New Orleans ended last year second in the NFC South, while the Falcons finished third. 

New Orleans is favored by 5.5 points in the latest Falcons vs. Saints odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over/under is set at 44. Before you make any Saints vs. Falcons picks and predictions, you'll want to see what the SportsLine Projection Model is saying.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,500 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 138-97 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Amazingly, it hasn't missed a top-rated pick since Week 15 last season. The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is WAY UP.

Now, the model has simulated Falcons vs. Saints 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under on the point total, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in almost 60% of simulations. You absolutely need to see it before locking in your own picks.

So who wins Falcons vs. Saints? And which side of the spread is a must-back? Join SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its NFL picks.