Euro 2016: The sensible play for Portugal vs. Poland

Portugal vs. Poland

Stade Velodrome, Marseille, France, 3 p.m. ET

Portugal +125
Poland +285
Draw +195
Total 2 (Under -130)

How they got here

Both nations required more than 90 minutes to punch their tickets to the quarterfinals. Poland knocked off the Swiss in a dramatic penalty shootout after conceding the equalizer deep in regulation while Portugal turned their only shot on target against Croatia into a game-winner at the end of extra time.

Poland's defense is among the tournament's biggest surprises; they've conceded once in four matches.

Portugal relied on a resolute defensive effort to frustrate the Croats. That's nothing new for a Fernando Santos-led team now starting to draw comparisons to his previous Greek sides. Both nations should feel fortunate to be here after being outplayed in their previous matches.

Who to watch

We mention Cristiano Ronaldo all the time for Portugal and with good reason. He's now played in more European Championship matches (18) than anyone and is one goal shy of Michel Platini's record of nine goals.

Nani has provided an excellent running mate up front for Ronald, but the player drawing the attention of Poland is teenage phenom Renato Sanchez. He was named man of the match against Croatia despite starting the game on the bench and will be called on to fill a similar sparkplug role against Poland should the Portuguese need it.

Robert Lewandowski draws all the fanfare from international soccer fans but the Polish catalyst has yet to add his name to the scoresheet this tournament. According to opta soccer stats, the Bayern Munich stalwart has failed to register a goal or assist in European finals competition since the 17th minute of his first game back in Euro 2012 (a scoreless streak of 643 minutes).

Jakub Blaszczykowski has become the key cog, factoring directly in all of Poland's offensive efforts this tournament. Arsenal keeper Lukasz Fabianski doesn't get nearly enough attention either. He made seven key saves in their round of 16 escape against Switzerland.

What will happen

Portugal is still winless in regulation during this tournament. However, they're still being priced like a semi-competent side and I'm not ready to buy into them the same way the market is now.

Poland appeared to take a conservative posture throughout the second half against Switzerland, a tactical trait that scares me going forward. I'll be honest; I haven't a clue which side wins but another trip to stoppage time wouldn't shock me.

One thing I'm willing to count on is that neither team will take unnecessary chances early. Look for a cagey first 45 minutes from both nations.

The Play: 1st Half Draw (-115)