Dolphins vs. Ravens NFL Week 17 odds, props: Baltimore can clinch AFC's top seed with win; Lamar Jackson could wrap up second MVP Award

The most important Week 17 game in the NFL is AFC East-leading Miami (11-4) at AFC North-leading Baltimore (12-3), as the Ravens would clinch not just the division but the conference's top seed for the first time since 2019 with a victory and get to their rest starters in Week 18 vs. Pittsburgh – no doubt the Steelers will be big Ravens fans on Sunday. The Dolphins can't clinch the top seed with a win, but would place themselves firmly in the driver's seat. A victory would give Miami the AFC East title for the first time since 2008. Baltimore is -4 on the SportsLine consensus.

Per the SportsLine Projection Model, Baltimore has a 95.4% chance of earning that top seed with Miami at 4.6%. DraftKings lists the Ravens at -330 (76.7%) and the Dolphins at +170 (37%).

We told you earlier this week that Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson had become the clear NFL MVP favorite with his performance on Monday night in the upset win in San Francisco in a possible Super Bowl 58 preview. With the 2019 MVP now priced at -190 and Christian McCaffrey next at +500, Jackson would be all but a lock to win it with a big game and victory Sunday before surely getting Week 18 off. Jackson turns 27 on the final day of regular season and would be the youngest QB ever to win a second MVP.

Baltimore defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald has put himself in excellent position to land a head coaching job this offseason. His unit could be the first in league history lead the NFL in scoring defense, takeaways and sacks in a season (team sacks first became official in 1963). The Ravens are allowing 16.3 points per game (Niners second at 17.7), have 26 takeaways (one behind Cleveland after Thursday night's game) and 54 sacks (Dolphins second with 52).

Coach John Harbaugh's club can tie an NFL record with a fifth straight win by at least 14 points against a team entering a minimum of three games over .500, joining the 1958-61 Colts. The Ravens' plus-148 point differential vs. winning teams would tie the best in NFL history with the 1969 Vikings. Baltimore has spent the most time leading overall through 15 games since the unbeaten 2007 Patriots. Only that club and the 1972 Dolphins, who also finished unbeaten, led in the final two minutes of every regular-season game.

Even if Miami wins here to earn a crucial tiebreaker, it could still lose the AFC's top seed in Week 18 with a home loss to surging Buffalo. That would be for the East title if the Dolphins lose here and the Bills win at home Sunday vs. New England, which they absolutely should. I can promise you that the Sunday night game in Week 18 will be Bills-Dolphins if it's for the division title.

The Dolphins lead the NFL in scoring (30.9 PPG) and yards per game (411.5) but since Week 8 are averaging 367 yards per game, sixth-most in the NFL. Miami averaged an unsustainable 6.3 yards per rush the first seven weeks but have produced 3.9 yards per carry since.

Tua Tagovailoa (+1000 for MVP) and the Miami offense will likely be missing the best No. 2 receiver in the NFL in Jaylen Waddle, who suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 16. In theory, that should allow Baltimore to focus more on league-leading receiver Tyreek Hill (1,641), who is +1000 at DK to break Calvin Johnson's NFL record of 1,964.5 yards in a season. Hill should become the first player in NFL history with 1,700 receiving yards in multiple years on Sunday. He is the +450 favorite to lead all players in receiving yards in Sunday's 14 games.

Vic Fangio's defense has really raised its game since Week 8. Since then, Miami ranks first in scoring (15.9 PPG) and yards per game (253.8), and fourth in sacks per dropback (9.4%). The 52 sacks are already a franchise record. Miami is 10-1 vs. .500 or worse teams this season and 1-3 against winning teams.

That Ravens-Dolphins is the highest-scoring game on Sunday is among the favorites at +600, with lowest-scoring game at +2000. Miami won 42-38 in Baltimore last season despite trailing 35-14 in the fourth. It was the tied for the second-largest comeback in team history. Tagovailoa threw for 469 yards and six scores, while Jackson threw for 318 and three TDs while rushing for 119 yards and a score. 

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