Two teams fighting to earn a spot in the NFL playoff picture will collide on NFL Christmas Day 2022 when the Miami Dolphins host the Green Bay Packers in a key Week 16 game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. Kickoff is 1 p.m. ET. Miami is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Dolphins vs. Packers odds from Caesars Sportsbook while the over/under for total points scored is 50. Before you make any Packers vs. Dolphins picks or NFL predictions, see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 16 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 157-113 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

The model knows that Miami has one of the best receivers in the NFL in Tyreek Hill. Acquired from the Chiefs in the offseason, this 5-foot-10 dynamo ranks second in the league in both receptions (109) and receiving yards (1,529). He has a receiving touchdown in his last three games and in five of his last six.

The model also has factored in that Packers rookie receiver Christian Watson is on a roll. A second round pick in April's NFL Draft, Watson has scored eight touchdowns (seven receiving, one rushing) over his last five games. He also is averaging 81.6 yards from scrimmage over that time span.

Now, the model has set its sights on Dolphins vs. Packers. We can tell you the model is leaning Under the total, and it also says one side of the spread cashes in over 50% of simulations! You ABSOLUTELY need to see it before locking in any NFL picks.

So who wins Dolphins vs. Packers on Christmas? And which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Join SportsLine now to see which side of the Packers vs. Dolphins spread to back, all from the model that's on an amazing 157-113 run on NFL picks!