DFS: NFL Week 5 Lineup Optimizer

The Lineup Optimizer tends to spit out tournament plays, and this week's is an extreme example of that. This is a lineup combination I probably wouldn't have thought of in a hundred hours of research, but I can see the logic in it. If I squint real hard.

The centerpiece is the running back combination of Jamaal Charles and Le'Veon Bell, and that combination is unimpeachably excellent. They need little explanation. The wide receivers, however… Well, you'll see.

Here is the Optimal Lineup for FanDuel's main NFL slate, as of noon ET Thursday.

Note: The Optimizer will produce multiple lineups throughout the week based on news and other factors leading right up to kickoff. The lineup Chris spotlights in his column may be significantly different than the lineup you receive from the Optimizer later.

QB Alex Smith vs. Chicago $6,900
Key Stat: Worth salary in 73 percent of games the last year

Smith isn't the type of quarterback you really think of for DFS, which makes him a perfect tournament play -- at least theoretically. He has tons of weapons around him, but has just one touchdown over the last three games, despite throwing the ball a ton in that span. The matchup against the Bears is a great one, but it's hard to see this game script following the same one the Chiefs have been forced to lean on over the last two games, when Smith has thrown the ball 85 times combined. Even with weapons like Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce in the passing game, the Chiefs aren't going to be a pass-first team when they have the choice. There aren't a ton of options in the sub-$7,000 price range, but Josh McCown has put up better numbers than Smith in recent weeks and arguably has just as good a matchup. I'd go there.

RB Jamaal Charles vs. Chicago $9,100
Key Stat: Worth price in 58 percent of simulations

One thing that hasn't been an issue for Charles this season is touches: he has 79 through four games, including at least 16 in each. That number should rise considerably in Week 5, with an opponent the Chiefs almost certainly won't be chasing for points. Charles had 20-plus touches in each of the two games -- games they led much of -- so expect more of that kind of role for him in what should be a huge game.

RB Le'Veon Bell @ San Diego $9,000
Key Stat: Second-highest projected scorer at position

The Steelers haven't bothered working Bell back in slowly, and he has responded with consecutive 20-plus point games, good for 47.2 total through two games. The Chargers just allowed 100 rushing yards and 147 receiving yards to the Browns' running backs, neither of whom is as good at any facet of the game as Bell. With Michael Vick still under center, the Steelers are going to continue looking Bell's way early and often, with 20 touches probably representing his floor.

WR Julio Jones vs. Washington $9,200
Key Stat: Worth price in 70 percent of simulations

It's hard to argue against Jones for DFS, even after his disappointing Week 4 performance. We know the Falcons want to go to him early and often, but last week's game didn't really allow for that; the Falcons threw the ball a season-low 27 times in their rout of the Texans. This game could similarly be a blowout, but it's unlikely to feature four rushing touchdowns and a defensive return touchdown, so chances are the Falcons are going to put it in the end zone through the air more often this time around. Jones is nearly always the top target at his position for good reason.

WR Leonard Hankerson vs. Washington $6,000
Key Stat: Scores 15+ FD pints in 22 percent of simulations

Alright, this is a bit weird. The passing game is a zero-sum game; every pass that goes to one receiver can't go to one of his teammates. Now, that doesn't mean multiple receivers on the same team can't succeed, but it can make things tough. Hankerson has been terrific lately, scoring 15 or more FD points in two of the last three games, and if you think the Falcons are going to put up big points through the air, snagging him as a high-upside play makes some sense.

WR Roddy White vs. Washington $5,200
Key Stat: Worth value in 56 percent of games last 12 months

And here's where things go completely off the rails. You could talk me into two Falcons wide receivers, and I could even justify one of them being White in a tournament; his role seems likely to grow after his public complaints about his lack of touches. As a contrarian player, White makes a ton of sense in a tournament setting, where you need to stand out. However, the chances of all three Falcons wide receivers going off at the same time seem exceptionally low. I can't endorse this strategy.

TE Tyler Eifert vs. Seattle $5,600
Key Stat: No. 3 projected player at the position

If you're looking for 3X value (Player salary divided by 1,000, multiplied by three -- 16.8 for Eifert), you're looking at a player who has done that just once this season, which doesn't sound like a great deal. Especially since he already has a zero-point game on the ledger as well, the type of performance that will absolutely kill you in any format. However, that zero-point game in Week 3 should come with an asterisk; he had a touchdown wiped away on one of those NFL rules that don't make any sense to anyone but the person who wrote them. Eifert has been one of the few consistent performers at the position, and is always a safe play, with upside to boot. Even against a tough matchup, he's a decent option, though you might be better off going elsewhere if you need to upgrade from White.

K Matt Bryant vs. Washington $4,800
Key Stat: Atlanta projected as top scoring team

Well, if we think the Falcons' passing game is going to light it up, Bryant should get plenty of chances, right?

DST Buccaneers vs. Jacksonville $4,000
Key Stat: 15+ FD points in 26 percent of simulations

If you're going bargain hunting for a defense, grab the one going against the Jaguars in what should be a low-scoring game. The Jaguars have scored 20 points just once in their four games, and have two games below 300 yards of total offense. Blake Bortles looks much improved, but this offense is still struggling to get going. Of course, with Jameis Winston on your side, the Jaguars might be looking at some short fields, so there's plenty of risk here.