DFS: NFL Week 3 Lineup Optimizer

The first two weeks of this NFL season have been an exercise in contradiction. It seemed like everything that happened in Week 1 was contradicted by the following week, to the point where it's hard to say exactly what we know about this still-new NFL season.

Don't throw out last year, then. At this point in the season, we're still dealing with noisy sample sizes that can often hide the truth, so the past can probably still tell us more than what we've seen in the present. That doesn't mean you should ignore Drew Brees' shoulder injury or Peyton Manning's issues generating strength on his throws; just that outliers, like the Eagles' offensive line ways or Miami's inability to run the ball, should be taken with a boulder of salt.

Looking ahead to Week 3 for DFS, there are a few players off to incredible starts we're buying into, but a few more who have disappointed that we still like. Finding the balance is key.

Here is the Optimal Lineup for FanDuel's NFL slate, as of 12:30 p.m. EST Thursday.

Note: The Optimizer will produce multiple lineups throughout the week based on news and other factors leading right up to kickoff. The lineup Chris spotlights in his column may be significantly different than the lineup you receive from the Optimizer later.

QB Russell Wilson vs. Chicago $8,400
Key Stat: Top projected player at the position

Wilson's Seahawks haven't been great to open the season, but anyone who played Wilson in Fantasy last week has to be pretty happy. He came away with 23.04 FanDuel points in the loss to the Packers, and is averaging 20.7 FD points over the last four games, including the playoffs. The Bears' defense has been abysmal so far, coming off a 48-point game by the Cardinals, so expect more good things from Wilson, who is our top projected player this week.

RB Le'Veon Bell at St. Louis $8,800
Key Stat: Top projected non-QB of the week

Bell's suspension is over, and based on what DeAngelo Williams did in his place, your expectations should be extremely high. Williams scored 42.7 FanDuel points in the Steelers' first two games, and he did that without being nearly the threat Bell is in the passing game. Inlcluding the playoffs, Bell finished off last season averaging 27.0 FD points in his final six games, and is expected to hit the ground running in Week 3, even with a potentially tough matchup looming against the Rams' strong defensive front.

RB Marshawn Lynch vs. Chicago $8,700
Key Stat: Scores 18-plus FD points in 68 percent of simulations

Lynch hasn't been quite what we expected, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry and failing to score in each of his first two games. However, both games came against tough competition on the road, so Lynch's fortunes should turn around in Week 3 with a pretty dreadful Bears' defense on tap at home. Chicago has given up over 180 yards on the ground in each game so far, and Lynch has averaged 89 rushing yards per game at home over the last three seasons, with 25 touchdowns in 24 games. This is a perfect opportunity for Lynch to break out.

WR Julian Edelman vs. Jacksonville $7,700
Key Stat: Projected for fourth-most receptions of the week

In a scoring format that rewards receptions, Edelman is probably severely undervalued here. He has 11 catches in each of the first two games, coming off two seasons where he has 197 in his previous 30 games. With how much the Patriots are throwing the ball, Edelman is going to keep getting a ridiculous volume of throws, and you have to think New England will have little trouble throwing the ball against Jacksonville. The only question is whether they will continue to throw after racing out to an early lead, but that didn't stop them last week.

WR Larry Fitzgerald vs. San Francisco $6,700
Key Stat: Scores a touchdown in 60 percent of simulations

Everyone is going to have Fitzgerald in their lineup today. Everyone. He's coming off a 112-yard, three-touchdown game and is still under $7,000 -- of course he's going to be owned by everyone. In a cash game, you probably need to play him too. In a tournament, however, you probably need to fade him in an effort to differentiate yourself from the crowd. That isn't an argument against Fitzgerald being good, just an acknowledgment that there's little upside in playing him when everyone else will. A smart play might be his teammate John Brown, who comes in for $700 less; if you think the Cardinals are going to go off on the 49ers, having Brown is a nice hedge against everyone else having Fitzgerald.

WR Michael Floyd vs. San Francisco $5,200
Key Stat: Scores 12-plus FD points in 46 percent of simulations

Or you could go with Floyd, I guess. But you probably shouldn't, as Floyd's injury has limited him so far. Floyd did increase his playing time from just nine snaps in Week 1 to 39 in Week 2. That increased role will eventually lead to productivity, so he's not the worst flier ever at this bargain price. However, if you go with Brown instead of Fitzgerald as suggested, you can use the $700 saved there to throw Mike Wallace or Steve Johnson in your lineup instead.

TE Garrett Graham vs. Tampa Bay $4,600
Key Stat: Fourth-best chance at a touchdown among TE

At this price, you're just hoping for a Hail Mary to land. Graham was targeted five times in the last game, which is the good news, but he hauled in just one of Ryan Mallett's 58 pass attempts, so there isn't much to rely on here. Especially since Graham has played fewer than half of the team's offensive snaps so far. I might feel better taking a chance on Richard Rodgers or Coby Fleener, who might have better shots to find the end zone in the offenses they play in.

DST New England vs. Jacksonville $4,700
Key Stat: Highest chance for 15-plus FD points

New England's defense has held up well so far, and Blake Bortles showed a predictable tendency for mistakes as a rookie. He looked terrific in Week 2 against the Dolphins, but bet on Tom Brady forcing him to throw more, and expect more mistakes as a result.

K Stephen Gostkowski vs. Jacksonville $5,000
Key Stat: Highest projected scorer at position

If you expect the Patriots to go off this week -- and we do, with 35 points projected -- Gostkowski is an easy call. Even if he is a bit pricey for a kicker.