DeAndre Hopkins to Titans NFL odds fallout: Tennessee gets slight AFC South title boost per sportsbooks, proven model

The last time the Tennessee Titans took a shot on a potentially past-his-prime Hall-of-Fame-caliber receiver, it didn't turn out well as Julio Jones was a bust. The Titans are trying again, however, as they have agreed to contract terms with free-agent wideout DeAndre Hopkins, a five-time All-Pro. His addition has only slightly moved the needle for Titans futures at the sportsbooks and with the SportsLine Projection Model, though.

Hopkins was reportedly down to the Titans and Patriots after being released by the Arizona Cardinals earlier this year. The 31-year-old had 115 catches for 1,407 yards and eight touchdowns as recently as 2020 in Arizona, but injuries and a six-game suspension have limited Hopkins to 19 games over the past two seasons. He's still a productive player when he's on the field, though. Hopkins totaled 64 catches for 717 yards and three TDs in nine games on a bad team with major quarterback issues last year.

It's not clear how much winning a Super Bowl ring factored into Hopkins' decision -- reports are that he is getting a two-year, $26 million deal worth up to as much as $32 million with incentives -- but the Titans don't appear very close to one after a 7-10 mark in 2022 and with both QB Ryan Tannehill and RB Derrick Henry potentially playing their final seasons in Nashville.

Hopkins will be by far the most experienced wideout the Titans have. He'll start opposite second-year receiver Treylon Burks, who had his own injury problems as a rookie. Tennessee receivers recorded just two 100-yard games last year and didn't have a player on the roster with a 500-yard receiving season in his career. The Titans/Oilers had never started a year without a player having a prior season of 500 receiving yards. With Hopkins, they now do. DraftKings has Hopkins totals props up already: 850.5 yards and 4.5 TDs.

Some are comparing this signing to the Titans' trade for Jones from Atlanta ahead of the 2021 season. Like Hopkins, Jones had been one of the league's top receivers but had started to get injury-prone. Jones was 31 in his final year with the Falcons in 2020and had 771 receiving yards and three TDs in nine games. He then totaled 434 yards in 10 injury-plagued games with the Titans and was released. Jones cost draft picks to get. Hopkins didn't.  

"I always loved having haters and doubters but I appreciate it even more now. Titan up!!" Hopkins wrote on Twitter.

Titans head coach Mike Vrabel and offensive coordinator Tim Kelly were both in Houston with Hopkins for a time. Hopkins caught 104 passes for 1,165 yards and seven touchdowns in 2019 when Kelly was calling the plays for the Texans. Those relationships could have been the deciding factor.

The team has an Over/Under win total of 7.5 for this year. To win the AFC South, the Titans' odds dropped from +350 to +300 with the Hopkins addition, but their odds to win win the AFC (+5000) and Super Bowl (+8000) were unchanged. Per the SportsLine Projection Model, the Titans improved from 7.9 to 8.3 wins and raised their division title chances from 20.9% to 25.8%, which equates to approximately +290 on the money line.

Hopkins' Titans debut should come on Sept. 10 at New Orleans, which is currently -3. The model has Hopkins leading Tennessee with 3.8 catches for 50 yards and 0.28 TDs in a loss.

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