Dak Prescott worth $45 million per season? Cowboys QB has struggled vs. good teams

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott reportedly has turned down a five-year, $175 million contract from Jerry Jones, which would have made Prescott the highest-paid QB in NFL history. Prescott allegedly wants a four-year deal that pays him more than $45 million in the final season. Prescott and the Cowboys have until July 15 to agree to a long-term deal or Prescott would have to play on his $31.5 million franchise tender this season.

Statistics can be manipulated in many ways in favor of or against a player in any sport. Is Prescott one of the NFL's best quarterbacks? Some statistics say absolutely.

He is 40-24 as a starter (36-26-2 against the spread) since entering the league a fourth-round pick in 2016. In the Super Bowl era, only Prescott and Hall of Famer Dan Marino reached at least 40 wins and 15,000 passing yards in their first four seasons. Prescott's career completion percentage of 65.8 is the fourth-best in league history. He is coming off a season in which he reached career highs in passing yards (4,902) and touchdown passes (30).

However, Prescott has not been good against the better competition in his career. Last year, the Cowboys finished 8-8 and missed the postseason for the second time in Prescott's four seasons. Dallas had little trouble with the weaklings on its schedule, going 4-0 against the Giants and Redskins and also beating the Dolphins and Lions. Outside of the Cincinnati Bengals, those were arguably the league's four worst teams in 2019.

WHAT 2020 FANTASY FOOTBALL SLEEPER SHOULD YOU SNATCH IN YOUR DRAFT? AND WHICH WR1 CANDIDATE CAN YOU WAIT ON UNTIL LATE? JOIN SPORTSLINE NOW TO GET 2020 FANTASY FOOTBALL CHEAT SHEETS FROM THE MODEL THAT WAS ALL OVER DERRICK HENRY'S HUGE SEASON, AND FIND OUT.  

On the flip side, the only win the Cowboys had last year against a team with a winning record was Week 15 at home vs. the Rams, and L.A. finished just 9-7. Prescott threw eight TD passes and eight picks against eventual playoff teams and 22 touchdowns and three picks against non-playoff teams.

In a stellar rookie season, Prescott threw for 13 touchdowns and four interceptions against teams with a winning record and was 6-3, including playoffs (the Cowboys lost in the Divisional Round as home favorites to the Green Bay Packers). Since then against teams with a winning record, his touchdown-to-interception ratio is 25-25 and his record as a starter is 6-17.

Prescott has played 18 career games against teams that would finish with 10-plus wins, and he is 5-13 against them with 22 touchdowns and 19 interceptions for a QBR that ranks 19th in the NFL. Against teams that eventually finish with nine-or-fewer wins, Prescott is 35-11 with 75 touchdowns, 17 interceptions and a QBR of 72.9 that ranks second in the NFL (stats courtesy of ESPN).

This could be the Cowboys' most-talented roster since Prescott entered the NFL, and Dallas is a +1200 fifth-favorite on the moneyline odds at William Hill sportsbook to win its first Super Bowl since the 1995 season. Prescott is a +1500 fifth-favorite to win NFL MVP. Believe it or not, the only Cowboy to win MVP was Emmitt Smith in 1993.

Could Prescott hold out a few games into the season in "protest" of not getting a long-term deal? Dallas added a terrific backup in Andy Dalton this offseason. The Cowboys open at the L.A. Rams on Sunday night, Sept. 13.

Which teams sail past their projected win totals? What is the SportsLine model's stunning Packers prediction? And how many wins will every NFL team have this season? ... See every projected win total, including the shocking prediction for the Packers, all from an uncanny computer model that crushed its NFL win total picks last year!