Are you ready for the last Monday night football telecast for a long while?

Of course you are. It doesn't make sense from a competitive balance standpoint for this Wild Card game to be played this way, but that hasn't stopped the NFL on a multitude of fronts over the years. As always, follow the money. That's what things like this come to pass.

The Buccaneers-Cowboys game isn't my favorite of the weekend, but it is the rare game over last week that didn't see wild fluctuations in the totals or spreads. There are fewer variables and fewer injury issues. After a bad Saturday, we rebounded strong on Sunday. Let's keep it going here in the last weekday game of the season:

Cowboys at Buccaneers

• More picks: Model | Expert | Props | DFS

Moneyline: Buccaneers +122

I guess it's kind of public and chalky, but I didn't like the psyche of the Cowboys down the stretch. With a coach on the hot seat and two coordinators looking for head coaching gigs, problems can arise. I don't fancy the Cowboys on the road, on grass, against decent teams. They have lost eight in a row away from home in the postseason. They are 1-4 on grass this season, with the defense giving up more than 27 points per game. Dak Prescott is too prone to forcing throws into coverage and telegraphing his intentions. Is Tony Pollard up to carrying a heavy load after his injury issues? 

Tom Brady has been cooking in the fourth quarter all season. And while those slow starts give me pause and are not ideal, the Bucs know they can pull things out late, especially at home (kind of like the Jaguars). I like the return of center Ryan Jensen just in time for the playoffs – he provides and edge and toughness that gets in opposing team's heads. He's a tone-setter and could potentially get some inside run plays going too.

Spread: Buccaneers +2.5

If you are less adventurous and don't feel as strongly about the moneyline play as I do, then the spread may be the course of action for you. All of the points I made in the section above ring true here. The Bucs should get this done.

Total: Over 45.5

The Cowboys won't be held to six points like last week, or the measly three points they scored in their Week 1 meeting with Tampa. The offense rolls up about 30 points per game with Prescott under center. The Bucs were 22nd in the NFL in opposing passer rating allowed and gave up 29 passing touchdowns, 31st in the NFL. For all of Prescott's interception issues, he does have 13 TD passes since Week 13, tops in the NFL. Both of these teams have abundant offense weapons and I don't think Dallas is going to run the ball as much as they would like, because I expect Tampa to come out with some hurry-up stuff to try to push the pace (it works really well for them in the fourth quarter!). It's time to mix it up with everything on the line. Expect Kellen Moore, looking for a promotion, to want to chuck it all over the place. A Bucs pick-six wouldn't shock me here.

Same Game Parlay (+600)

• Buccaneers ML
• Dak Prescott INT
• Tom Brady INT

Player Props

Tom Brady Over 42.5 Passing Attempts (-115)

The Bucs are the worst rushing team in the NFL and they won't try to hide it. They'll just abandon the run and use the short pass as a run. Since Week 13, Brady has averaged 43.8 attempts per game, way more than anyone else. If you take out last week (he only played a half) his recent attempt totals are: 45, 48, 44, 55, 54, 43. In a do-or-die situation, Tampa Bay will go down doing what it does best. Brady spread it around and look for yards after the catch.

Tom Brady INT (-131)

I really want to play Prescott to throw a pick, and if you've been paying attention that's a train I've been riding since way back, but there just isn't enough value in it anymore. I still think this is a little underpriced, as Brady will be under some pressure and that hasn't worked out well for the Bucs this season. They've had miscommunication issues. With all the expected volume in the passing game, a mistake or two is baked into the cake.

Mike Evans TD (+135)

It was only a matter of time before Evans and Brady got back on the same page and his TD production started to adjust more to the norm. He should be confident after a hat trick against the Panthers, and knowing he will get his target share (9, 9, 8, 12 in his last four games), I like another big outing here. Evans caught a TD against the Cowboys Week 1. He'll use his body to box out and open up space in the red zone.

Prescott Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-113)

Generally, Prescott's shown an ability to bounce back from turnovers – Week 18 notwithstanding – and be fearless spreading in the ball around. He's hit this prop in three of the last four games. If you are seeing this as an Over game -- as I am -- then this makes all sorts of sense.

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