Copa America: Will Peru continue Cinderella story vs. Colombia?

Peru vs. Colombia, Met Life Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J., Friday, 8 p.m. ET

Colombia -160
Peru +590
Draw +275
Total 2 (Over -140)

Peru deserves full marks for their improbable run to the knockout stage. Listed at 8/1 to win the group, very few bettors or experts thought it possible for them to dethrone continental heavyweight Brazil and Ecuador despite past Copa success.

It may have taken a helping hand (so to speak) for them to get here but nobody will tell this Peru side that collected seven points in group play it's a fluke.

In their final deciding match against Brazil, the Peruvians relinquished ball possession to their opponents and found themselves on the short end of a 14-4 shot disparity. It wasn't until the 75th minute on the most improbable of hand balls that Raul Ruidiaz sealed their passage to the next round.

Here's my issue with Peru and their prospects of advancement; they lack the kind of sustained attacking flair needed to break down the Colombian midfield and back line. Peru struggled mightily to dispatch group doormat Haiti and found a way to blow a two-goal lead against Ecuador. They've consistently been outshot and out-possessed; that's not a recipe for success Friday night.

Enter Colombia, a side fresh off a stunning loss to Costa Rica. Before we hit the panic button, keep in mind the Colombian side that hit the pitch vs. the Ticos made 10 changes from the edition that gobbled up six points in the first two matches. The entire backbone of the team -- James Rodriguez, Juan Cuadrado, Edwin Cardona, David Ospina, and Carlos Bacca -- was absent from the starting lineup.

Rodriguez, Cuadrado, and Cardona eventually entered but it was too little, too late. This is a side that won't get caught looking past a pesky Peru team. It was Rodriguez himself who refused to answer questions about a potential Brazil matchup, stating Peru could spoil the showdown media members were intent on discussing.

Everyone loves a Cinderella story, but eventually the clock strikes midnight. Peru won't catch Colombia flat, bur rather a side hell bent on making a statement.

If anything, there's a ton of value here considering Brazil closed as more than two-dollar favorites against this same Peruvian side just a few nights ago. At this point in the tournament, I'll back a lineup laden with world-class talent at a very reasonable price.

The Play: Colombia -.75 (risking 1.8 units to win 1.5 units)

Note: This bet is for regulation and stoppage time only, does not include penalty kicks.

Copa America YTD: 3-5-1 (-1.4 units)