Commanders vs. Bears Thursday NFL Week 6 odds, trends: Bettors backing Chicago, under total and Brian Robinson to score touchdown

I have seen a lot of chatter on social media about how NFL fans wish the league could flex out tonight's Washington at Chicago matchup, but flexing is never going to be an option for a Thursday game. So we are stuck with a one-win team visiting a two-win club. The Bears opened as 1.5-point underdogs at BetMGM but are now 1-point favorites as they are taking a heavy lean on the spread. Among player props, Commanders running back Brian Robinson has been the most popular wager.

As of this writing, 72% of money and 63% of wagers are on Chicago. The total opened at 39.5 but has dropped to 38, which will be among the lowest of the season. Yet 60% of the bets and 54% of the money are on the Under between struggling offenses. The Bears are averaging just 17.2 points and are by far last in the league in passing at 116.6 yards per game. The Commanders are averaging 18.0 points. Quarterback Carson Wentz is putting up yards but is turning the ball over a ton.

Note that since 2020 in NFL games with a total of 38 points or fewer, the Under is 7-1. That statistic surprised me. Unders are 25-8-1 (76%) in Thursday night games with totals of 40 or lower since 2000.

The Washington offense will be without two key players in rookie receiver Jahan Dotson and tight end Logan Thomas. Dotson was among the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year favorites after catching 12 passes for 152 yards and four scores in the first four games but is now +3000 because he missed Week 5 with a hamstring injury and obviously will sit another game at least. Thomas has 13 catches for 106 yards and a TD.

As for the Commanders' Robinson, the former Alabama star tailback was shot twice in late August in the Washington area in a carjacking attempt, but amazingly made it back last Sunday and had nine carries for 22 yards. He seems to have supplanted Antonio Gibson as the No. 1 running back.

Robinson to score the game's first TD at +750 is the most-wagered player prop for this game at BetMGM followed by Robinson to score anytime at +180. No. 3 is Washington wideout Curtis Samuel Over 4.5 receptions. Fellow wideout Terry McLaurin's receiving yards prop has moved from 54.5 to 52.5, but 99% of bets are on the Over.

Chicago is quite healthy and gets back its top cornerback in Jaylon Johnson. The 2020 second-round pick missed the last three games with a quad injury he sustained in practice.

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