Colts vs. Falcons NFL Week 16 odds, props: Atlanta going back to Taylor Heinecke at QB in what could be embattled Coach Arthur Smith's final home game

A couple of weeks ago, the Atlanta Falcons controlled their destiny to win the NFC South, but the Falcons have lost back-to-back divisional games to fall to 6-8 and place head coach Arthur Smith right back on one of the hottest seats in the NFL. Smith has made what could be his final major quarterback decision with the team. as he has decided to bench second-year starter Desmond Ridder for the second time this season in favor of veteran Taylor Heinicke. Atlanta is +2 on the SportsLine consensus Sunday against visiting Indianapolis.

While Ridder, a 2022 third-round pick, played quite well in a 29-25 home loss to Tampa Bay in Week 14, posting 347 passing yards with a touchdown and a rushing score, he and the entire offense were inept on Sunday in a brutal 9-7 loss at one-win Carolina. Ridder was 12-for-20 for 152 yards with a TD and pick and a non-factor on the ground with -2 yards on five carries. The Falcons had just 12 first downs and 204 total yards. Smith is an offensive-minded coach, mind you.

They are now third in the NFC South behind co-leaders Tampa Bay and New Orleans (7-7) and 10th in the NFC overall. Sunday is Atlanta's home finale as it closes at Chicago and New Orleans and should be an underdog in both. The Falcons are +750 longshots to win the division, +600 to make the playoffs for the first time since 2017 and -900 to miss out again.

That Smith really hasn't been able to develop Ridder (38.3 QBR this season) is one huge strike against the coach. Ridder again made a mistake at a critical time Sunday, throwing an interception in the red zone on Atlanta's final drive that eventually led to Carolina's game-winning field goal. It was Ridder's sixth red zone turnover of the season, the most in the NFL. Overall, he has 10 picks and 11 fumbles.

Heinicke is 12-14-1 as a starter in his career and 0-2 with Atlanta, losing Week 9 vs. Minnesota (31-28) and Week 10 in Arizona (25-23) ahead of his team's Week 11 bye. Ridder had been starting since. Overall, Heinicke has completed 55.4% of his passes for 498 yards, three touchdowns and an interception in 2023. The QB change has not shifted the spread or total vs. Indy.

It now seems nearly a lock that the team will take a QB with its 2024 first-round pick. A new CBS Sports mock draft has Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels landing in Atlanta. Currently, the Falcons would pick 10th. Owner Arthur Blank may want to start fresh with a new coach-QB duo similar to what Carolina did entering this season, although that blew up in the Panthers' faces.

In defense of Smith, the Falcons aren't far from being a winning team this season. They've lost fourth-quarter leads in their last four losses, and their last six defeats have been by one possession. Smith has acknowledged hearing calls for his job.

"That's what you sign up for, right," Smith said Monday. "I don't mean that to sound like bravado, but you want these jobs. You deal with the consequences."

Blank didn't want to comment on Smith's future after the game on Sunday, and he turned down the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's request for an interview on Monday.

Via SportsLine oddsmakers: Will the Falcons take a quarterback in Round 1 of the 2024 draft?

• Yes -200
• No +150

Via SportsLine oddsmakers: Will Arthur Smith be the Falcons' coach in Week 1 of the 2024 season?

• No -140
• Yes +120

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