College Football Playoff odds: Ohio State new national championship favorite; CJ Stroud running away on Heisman futures

Caesars Sportsbook posted odds to win this season's College Football Playoff way back on Jan. 10, and either Alabama or Georgia was atop the board all year… until now. Unbeaten Ohio State is the new favorite to win the national championship. The Buckeyes moved from +250 to +200 after throttling Michigan State in Week 6, while the Crimson Tide and Bulldogs each moved from +200 to +220. Alabama and Georgia had been title co-favorites since Sept. 25.

Coach Ryan Day's team reached as high as +340 this season, which was following a struggle in Week 1 against Notre Dame. The Buckeyes have been trucking the opposition ever since.

"Besides that first game against Notre Dame, Ohio State has looked invincible," said Joey Feazel, lead college football trader at Caesars Sportsbook. "But I think really the move to get Ohio State to the top of the board was because both Georgia and Alabama have shown hints of being beatable. Ohio State hasn't played a great team so far, but really those Penn State and Michigan games later in the year were always going to be the key. They can always look vulnerable in those games, but for right now, the SEC teams look a lot more vulnerable than Ohio State does."

However, since Sept. 3 Ohio State is only third in national title tickets at 8.8%, trailing Georgia at 15.5% and Michigan at 10.9%. OSU is also third in handle at 9.2% over that span with Alabama first with 30.9% and Georgia second at 21.6%. One bettor in West Virginia wagered $50,000 on Ohio State +300 in late August for a potential win of $150,000. That is the largest bet on the Buckeyes to win it all at Caesars Sportsbook.

They beat the Spartans 49-20 in East Lansing on Saturday behind a huge game from quarterback CJ Stroud. He completed 21 of his 26 passes for 361 yards and six touchdowns -- the first Big Ten quarterback to throw six touchdown passes in three different games. Nationally, Stroud's 24 touchdown passes and 207.5 quarterback rating are the highest marks in the nation. He's now the runaway favorite to win the Heisman Trophy at -125 with the closest challenger being USC quarterback Caleb Williams at +800. Stroud is first in Heisman handle since Sept. 3 at 26.8% and second in tickets at 8.2%, well behind Georgia QB Stetson Bennett (19.7%), who is now +2500.

"Stroud is clearly pulling away from the pack right now," Feazel said. I don't think it's that common for someone to break under even money for Heisman midway through the season. We still have a lot of football left. When Devonta Smith won it [in 2020], it looked like it was going to be Kyle Trask or Mac Jones and then Smith came out of nowhere. Stroud could run away with it, and if Ohio State keeps rolling, it's his to win. But the Heisman market is really volatile, and I think this will come down to the wire. If [Hendon] Hooker can beat Alabama, he's going to make a big jump."

OSU's role as the title betting favorite may not last too long, though, because it is off this week and No. 3 Alabama visits No. 6 Tennessee in the SEC Game of the Week on CBS. Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hookier is now a +1200 Heisman third favorite.

"I can see Alabama becoming the favorite again if they beat Tennessee with Ohio State on bye," Feazel said. "If Alabama has a big game, for sure they're going to leapfrog Ohio State. But if they lose, it'll make Ohio State that much bigger of a favorite. If Alabama goes down to Tennessee, I can also see Clemson getting to single digits, somewhere around +800. They haven't been the most impressive, but they're winning games and their path to the Playoff would be much easier. Basically, a lot of things are really dependent on this Alabama-Tennessee game."

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