Chiefs will rarely be 2020 underdogs, but Patrick Mahomes is unbeaten ATS as one

The Kansas City Chiefs are the +400 favorites on the moneyline at William Hill sportsbook to repeat as Super Bowl champions. Those types of favorites aren't underdogs often in a given regular season barring major injury, and the Chiefs might only be dogs once or twice in 2020. However, consider betting them in any such games because sensational quarterback Patrick Mahomes has yet to lose against the spread as an NFL underdog.

Looking at projected spreads, the Chiefs figure to be 2020 dogs first in Week 3 at the Baltimore Ravens, who so happen to have the same NFL-high Over-Under win total of 11.5 as Kansas City does. The Ravens are +650 second-favorites to win the Super Bowl and led the league with 14 regular-season victories last year. Needless to say, things can change by Week 3 regarding injury, suspension, the coronavirus, etc., but Kansas City right now would be about a 2-point underdog for the Monday night matchup.

The other early projection where the Chiefs would be getting points is Week 15 at New Orleans in a potential Super Bowl 55 preview, with the Saints also around 2-point favorites. That will be the first and probably only matchup between Mahomes and Drew Brees.

Mahomes is 5-0-1 against the spread in his NFL career as an underdog. He was a 3-point dog in his NFL debut in Week 17 of the 2017 season in a meaningless game in Denver, but Kansas City won 27-24. The one push came Week 11 on a Monday night in Los Angeles in 2018 when the Chiefs were +3 and lost a very memorable 54-51 shootout vs. the Rams.

The lone time Mahomes was a dog last year – he missed two games injured and K.C. was an underdog in both – was +3 at New England in Week 14, but the Chiefs won 23-16 in what would be the last meeting between Mahomes and Tom Brady as AFC rivals. The average spread Mahomes has faced as a dog is 3.3 points. The Over-Under is 5-1 in those six games with an average total of 52.

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