Chargers vs. Patriots NFL Week 13 odds, props: Bailey Zappe front-runner to start at quarterback for New England, Mac Jones possibly demoted to third string

The massively struggling New England Patriots are 6-point home underdogs against the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, and purely as a bettor this writer was hoping that Bill Belichick would stick with embattled quarterback Mac Jones as the starter despite two back-to-back benchings simply because Jones is an almost impossible 1-15 straight up and against the spread in his past 16 starts as an underdog. Alas, it appears Bailey Zappe will make his first start of 2023 on Sunday if Wednesday's practice is an indication.

Jones, the former first-round pick, has 10 touchdowns to 12 picks this season and has been pulled from four games overall, including each of the past two. The 12 interceptions are one behind leaders Josh Allen and Sam Howell, and Jones is +700 to "win" that tile. Obviously I don't recommend betting that now as Jones may not play again.  

The Patriots have lost four straight – they haven't lost five in a row since 1995 when Bill Parcells was head coach – and allowed just 10 points in each of the past two. New England is the first team since 1993 to lose back-to-back games giving up 10 points or fewer. Somewhat ironic is that the Pats outgained both opponents.

Sunday's loss to the equally inept Giants was the sixth time this year the defense got the ball back to the offense with a one-score deficit and each time the offense failed to produce a game-winning drive.  The Patriots are averaging 13.5 points, second worst in NFL and fifth worst in franchise history. The team's 2-9 record is its worst since starting 1-10 in 1993 and also the worst 11-game start in Belichick's Hall of Fame career.

Earlier this season, SportsLine offered odds on whether Belichick would be back next season with New England and no was -130 with yes at +110. No would be MUCH more heavily favored now as things have only gone downhill since that story posted in mid-October. As an aside, offshore book BetOnline offers a prop on where Belichick will be coaching in 2024 if not the Patriots, and Carolina is the +300 favorite followed by Washington at +325.

Zappe, a 2022 fourth-round pick out of Western Kentucky, has seen action in four games this season and not been any better than Jones, completing 48.7% of his passes for 158 yards and two picks for a laughable rating of 38.2. The current lowest rating in the NFL among qualified QBs is Browns rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson at 50.6. Jones has a rating of 77.0. Zappe is 2-0 in his career as a starter, though, averaging 248.5 passing yards in the two with three total TD passes and one pick. The wins were home vs. Detroit (29-0) and at Cleveland (38-15) last year.

At this point, Belichick likely faces a revolt from his locker room – the fanbase is already there – if he were to let Jones start again, and at practice today Zappe was getting first-team reps at practice and Malik Cunningham worked in behind Zappe and not Jones, who didn't take any reps. Cunningham is on the practice squad, but has also spent time on the active roster this season. He's seen time at wide receiver and had told reporters last week that he hadn't taken any QB reps in weeks.

"I'm not going to make any announcements on our lineup at any position," Belichick said. "So, it doesn't matter what the position is. We'll see how practice goes, see if everybody is ready to go. Hopefully everybody is ready to go, see what the injury situation is, and we'll go with who we think is best on Sunday."

Incidentally, New England is not favored to be Sunday's lowest-scoring team at +800. The Patriots are behind the Panthers (+650), who are in Tampa, and the Jets (+700), who host Atlanta.  

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