Chargers vs. Broncos NFL Week 17 odds, props: Denver reportedly benching Russell Wilson for Jarrett Stidham; veteran's future with team unclear

At 7-8, the Denver Broncos still have a shot at an AFC wild card spot. It's not a very good one, sitting at 12th in the AFC and priced +850 at DraftKings to make it, but it's possible. Yet the team is benching potential future Hall of Fame quarterback Russell Wilson for the final two games in favor of journeyman Jarrett Stidham for contractual reasons. Once as high as -6 on the SportsLine consensus for Sunday's home finale vs. the Chargers, the Broncos are now -3 even though L.A. has nothing to play for and is starting its own backup QB.

NFL Network's Ian Rappoport first reported that the team is doing this to preserve some financial flexibility for the offseason. Wilson's $37 million salary in 2025 vests in March 2024, and if Wilson gets injured and can't pass a physical when the vesting deadline arrives, the $37 million is guaranteed. Wilson will already make $39 million guaranteed in 2024. The Broncos clearly want to keep their options open going into the offseason.

Wilson signed a five-year $242.5 million contract extension with Denver in September 2022 after his trade from Seattle. The Broncos can't realistically get out from that until after 2024, as he only has guaranteed money through that season. Wilson's dead cap number would be $85 million next year and then about $50 million in 2025. It drops to approximately $30 million in 2026. The Broncos can release Wilson by March 17, but doing so would actually result in a loss of $49.6 million in 2024. Designating him a post-June 1 release would cause Denver to eat Wilson's 2024 salary ($35.4M) but avoid any financial blow to the 2024 cap. A trade seems highly unlikely given Wilson's contract and age. 

It was expected that the hiring of Sean Payton as coach would return Wilson to his prime Seahawks form, but that has not been the case, although he has been a lot better than in 2022 when Nathaniel Hackett was Denver's head coach. The 35-year-old Wilson has completed 66.4% of his throws for 3,070 yards, 26 touchdowns and eight picks for a rating of 98.0 that is seventh in the NFL. But the nine-time Pro Bowler's 19 losses since the start of 2022 are tied with Chicago's Justin Fields for the most in the NFL.

Denver's offense has struggled overall, ranking No. 16 in scoring and No. 25 in yards per game. The defense has largely been the main reason why Denver is in playoff contention after starting the season 1-5.

A loss on Sunday would eliminate Payton's club from playoff contention, as would any of these scenarios happening in Week 17:

• Wins by Bills, Steelers, and Chiefs
• Wins by Bills, Titans, Raiders, Jaguars, and Chiefs
• Wins by Bills, Texans, Colts, Panthers, and Chiefs
• Wins by Titans, Raiders, Jaguars, Steelers, and Chiefs
• Wins by Texans, Colts, Panthers, Steelers, Chiefs

The Broncos close the season in Las Vegas and would have to win out and get a lot of help to reach the playoffs. They're -1600 to miss the postseason. The simplest way for Denver to get in would be to win the AFC West, but the Chiefs would have to lose their final two games. Kansas City is home vs. Cincinnati on Sunday and close at the Chargers. The SportsLine Projection Model gives the Broncos just a 1.4% chance at making the playoffs.

Stidham, a 2019 fourth-round pick out of Auburn by New England, has not seen the field this season, his first in Denver. He saw action in five games last season with the Raiders and two as a starter, losing both. The Raiders demoted former starter Derek Carr, who had a similar injury guarantee in his contract, at the end of the 2022 campaign for Stidham before releasing Carr in the offseason.

Adam Schefter tweeted that "Denver is looking to spark its offense and see what it has in Stidham."

Via SportsLine oddsmakers: Which team will Russell Wilson be playing for in Week 1 of the 2024 season if not the Broncos?

• Commanders +300
• Falcons +300
• Patriots +400
• Raiders +700
• Vikings +900
• Giants +1500
• Bucs +2000
• Steelers +3000

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