CAA Tournament final odds: 30-win Charleston would likely miss NCAA Tournament with loss to UNC Wilmington Tuesday

On the surface, it seems illogical that a team with a regular-season conference championship (even if shared) and a 30-4 overall record probably wouldn't get an at-large NCAA Tournament berth, but that's likely the case if Charleston is upset by UNC Wilmington in Tuesday night's CAA Tournament championship game in Washington, D.C. The Cougars are 10-point favorites at Caesars Sportsbook with the matchup on CBS Sports Network.

Why wouldn't Charleston get in with a loss? It has a very solid NCAA NET ranking of No. 51 but also zero Quad 1 wins, zero wins against current projected NCAA Tournament teams, three Quad 3 losses (to North Carolina, Hofstra and Drexel) and a strength of schedule ranked among the nation's worst. The only power conference schools to face the Cougars were UNC and Virginia Tech (Charleston won by two points).

Presuming a win tonight, CBS Sports has the Cougars as a No. 13 in the NCAA Tournament's South region, facing No. 4 Indiana. ESPN forecasts Charleston as a No. 12 seed in the West, against No. 5 St. Mary's.

Charleston was pushed by a good Towson team in Monday's 77-72 CAA Tournament semifinal win. Reyne Smith's 20-point effort helped the Cougars become the nation's first 30-win team and advance the title game for the first time since 2018. That's the last time Charleston made the Big Dance.

The Cougars weren't the No. 1 seed entering the CAA Tournament, as they and Hofstra both finished the regular season at 16-2 in league play, but the Pride earned the tiebreaker. They became the first duo of CAA teams to both reach 16 conference wins in the same season.

Hofstra was upset by No. 4 seed UNC Wilmington 79-73 in overtime on Monday as the Seahawks, who erased a 12-point deficit, reached the title game in the CAA for a record 13th time. UNC Wilmington is looking to reach the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2017. The Seahawks also made the final a season ago but lost to Delaware in the final minute.

Charleston was 2-0 vs. UNC Wilmington this season, one game finishing a blowout and the other a two-point road win on Jan. 11. 

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