BYU 2023 college football futures odds: Cougars set at league-low 4.5 wins for first Big 12 season

Since 2005, the BYU football program has had just one losing season. The Cougars have won a combined 37 games over the past three years under head coach Kalani Sitake, but that was while playing a patched-together schedule as an independent. BYU enters the Big 12 this season and FanDuel oddsmakers clearly expect an uphill battle, as the Cougars are given an over/under win total of just 4.5, tied for the smallest total of any Big 12 school.

BYU was ranked as high as No. 12 last year but didn't finish in the top 25, finishing with an 8-5 record. The seasn was capped by a 24-23 New Mexico Bowl win over SMU. The Mustangs tried for the 2-point conversion in the final seconds but failed. With quarterback Jaren Hall injured, third-year freshman Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters made his first collegiate start for BYU, and the Hawaii native went 7-of-12 for 47 yards passing with a pick while running for 96 yards on 14 carries and a touchdown.

Maiava-Peters will not be in the QB mix this year as he has moved to running back. The presumed starter will be Pitt transfer Kedon Slovis with Hall (3,171 yards passing, 31 TDs in 2022) having used up his eligibility.

Last season at Pitt, Slovis went 7-4 as the starter and threw for 2,397 yards and 10 touchdowns. He had transferred there from USC, where he started for two seasons. Slovis has thrown for 68 career touchdowns and 9,973 career passing yards, which ranks No. 13 among active quarterbacks in the FBS. Slovis a +30000 long shot to win the Heisman Trophy.

Sitake has lost top wideout Puka Nacua to the NFL Draft, as well as leading rusher Christopher Brooks (817 yards, six TDs). Hall was the No. 2 rusher, and Nacua was a do-it-all threat like Deebo Samuel. UNLV transfer Aidan Robbins should take over as the featured back. Last year with the Rebs, he carried 209 times for 1,011 yards and nine touchdowns while catching 23 passes for 125 yards and a TD.

The defense has a new coordinator in Jay Hill, who was hired from FCS Weber State. He led the school to four straight Big Sky championships and six FCS playoff berths over his last seven seasons. Hill's scheme is expected to be much more aggressive in getting after the quarterback. Hill also brought FCS All-America cornerback Eddie Heckard with him from Weber State. Last year's BYU unit was terrible, ranking 97th nationally in points (29.5) and 94th in yards (408.1) allowed.

In 2022, BYU faced five Power 5 schools and went 2-3 with wins over Baylor and Stanford, and losses to Oregon, Notre Dame and Arkansas. This year, the Cougars play 10 Power 5 schools in a row. They will start 2-0 with easy home wins over FCS schools Sam Houston State (currently a +23.5-point dog) and Southern Utah before visiting Arkansas on Sept. 16.

The Big 12 opener is at Kansas on Sept. 23. The Cougars have to play both Texas (in Austin) and Oklahoma (in Provo). They also face fellow new member Cincinnati on Sept. 29 but don't see either UCF or Houston. Baylor and reigning Big 12 champion Kansas State are also missing from the slate. The last time BYU finished with a losing record was at 4-9 in 2017. I personally would go Over 4.5 wins, but barely. 

To win the Big 12, which has 14 teams for this year before Texas and Oklahoma leave for the SEC, BYU is a +10000 longshot.

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