Bulls vs. Heat Friday NBA play-in tournament injury report, odds, props, trends: Bettors crushing Chicago on spread and DeMar DeRozan Over 21.5 points

The Bulls finished four games behind the Heat in the Eastern Conference regular-season standings, but the Bulls swept the three-game season series against the Heat – yet Miami is a 5.5-point home favorite at BetMGM for tonight's NBA play-in matchup. Bettors at the book are absolutely crushing the Bulls against the spread and for an outright upset, as well as a scoring prop on All-Star DeMar DeRozan. Click here for model picks. Miami is 30-50-3 against the spread this season, the worst record in the NBA.

On Wednesday, the Bulls became the first No. 10 seed to upset a No. 9 seed in the short history of the play-in tournament. Chicago erased a 19-point deficit for a 109-105 victory in Toronto behind 39 points from Zach LaVine, 30 of which came in the second half. The Bulls didn't so much win the game as Toronto lost it, going just 18-for-36 from the free-throw line. Those 18 misses were the Raptors' most since 1997. It was the most missed free throws in a winner-take-all playoff or play-in game since the Lakers missed 19 in Game 7 of the 1969 Finals.

Whenever the Raptors went to the line, DeRozan's daughter Diar could be heard screaming throughout the arena, which blew up the internet, but she apparently will not be at tonight's game because of school (she was allowed to skip Wednesday). Chicago-based United Airlines has offered to fly her to Miami for free. Maybe her father will change his mind.

Miami played horribly as a 5.5-point favorite on Tuesday at home vs. Atlanta, losing 116-105 despite an unexpected 33 points off the bench from 37-year-old Kyle Lowry, who averaged 11.2 points per game during the season and missed several games at the tail end of his career. Lowry is questionable tonight but expected to play. Fellow point guard Gabe Vincent also is questionable. Jimmy Butler had 31 points, nine assists, four rebounds and two steals but was 6-for-19 from the field and minus-10. He missed practice Thursday with a personal issue but will play.

At BetMGM, 76% of the action and 80% of the handle on the spread are on Chicago, as well as 77% of the action and 83% of the handle on the Bulls at +180 on the moneyline. On the low total of 208.5, 85% of the bets and 77% of the money are on Over.

The three-most wagered player props tonight are all Bulls: DeRozan Over 21.5 points (-140), Alex Caruso Over 1.5 steals + blocks (-160), and Nikola Vucevic Over 15.5 points (-125). DeRozan averaged 24.5 PPG during the regular season, 28.3 in the three games vs. Miami and had 23 against Toronto.

It's actually not out of the question this might be DeRozan's final game in a Bulls uniform if they lose. He will be in the final year of his contract in the 2023-24 season and if the franchise decides to reboot – Vucevic is a free agent this summer – DeRozan could be traded while his value is highest. 

Tonight's winner visits NBA-best Milwaukee in Game 1 on Sunday. 

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