Buccaneers vs. Panthers NFL Week 18 odds, props: Baker Mayfield has 1 million reasons to play through injury, win NFC South in potential final game with Tampa Bay

After losing Tom Brady to retirement, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this offseason settled on what they expected to be a one-year stopgap solution at quarterback by signing former No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield to a one-year, $4 million deal worth up to as much as $8.5 million with incentives. The deal has worked out very well for both sides, and Mayfield would earn $1 million in incentives if he leads the Bucs to a win Sunday at Carolina to clinch the NFC South title – although he is dealing with very sore ribs. SportsLine also offers odds on whether Mayfield will be back next season in Tampa.

Tampa Bay and New Orleans are tied atop the South at 8-8 and Atlanta is third at 7-9. The Saints host the Falcons on Sunday and the winner of that game would be the divisional champion if the Bucs are upset. A Tampa Bay loss would also likely mean Todd Bowles would not back next season as head coach, but we'll address that at a later date. The Bucs would also win the South with a tie if the Saints lose or tie.

The Buccaneers are a wild card team with a tie, a Seattle loss in Arizona and a Green Bay loss or tie vs. Chicago. Both the Seahawks and Packers are favored. There has not been a tie in the NFL this season, and the Bucs have had just one in their history: a 14-14 game vs. Green Bay on Oct. 12, 1980.

Both the Bucs and the 28-year-old Mayfield are interested in a reunion for 2024. The former Heisman winner has completed 63.5% of his passes for 3,315 yards, 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions for a rating of 95.9 that is top 10 in the NFL and better than the likes of Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts. Mayfield has been an absolute bargain.

Tampa Bay only has 2021 second-round pick Kyle Trask behind him, and the Bucs even with a loss Sunday won't be in position in the 2024 draft to get one of the top QB prospects unless they trade up.

Mayfield took a bit hit to his ribs in last Sunday's 23-13 loss to the Saints from safety Tyrann Mathieu, who was penalized for roughing the passer. Mayfield says he's playing Sunday, which isn't a surprise given what's at stake. Add in the fact it's against Carolina, which cut him last season, and Mayfield has plenty of motivation to compete. Mayfield made six starts for the Panthers and was 1-5 with a rating of just 74.4.

"I'll do everything I can to be out there," he said. "The division on the line, playoff hopes on the line, going back to Carolina? Yeah, I'll do everything I can."

Trask has gotten increased reps this week as Mayfield hadn't been cleared to practice through Wednesday and appears to only be throwing lightly on Thursday. Trask has appeared in just two games this season. He threw an incompletion after Mayfield injured an ankle on a sneak from the 1-yard line Nov. 26 at Indianapolis, and Trask took a knee two weeks earlier in a win over Tennessee.

Offensive coordinator Dave Canales said if he believes Mayfield gives the Bucs the best chance to win and Mayfield believes he can go, then Bucs will go with Mayfield. On Trask, Canales said: "He's ready."  

The Bucs can become the sixth team in NFL history to make the postseason after a 4-7 start. They eye a third straight NFC South title after having three division titles in total prior to 2020. Should Tampa Bay win Sunday, it would be a combined 17-17 in the last two seasons with two playoff trips and become the only team ever with back-to-back playoff appearances despite a .500 or worse record in a two-season span.

Carolina would have the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 draft locked up if it hadn't traded the pick to Chicago last offseason in the Bryce Young deal. With how much dissatisfaction there is from the fanbase surrounding the team and owner David Tepper, expect plenty of empty seats in Charlotte, although the team has played a bit better under interim coach Chris Tabor.

The Panthers lost 21-18 in Tampa in Week 13. Mayfield threw for 202 yards, a TD and a pick. There aren't any individual props up on Mayfield yet this week as the sportsbooks want to make sure he plays, but DK has a special at +700: Mayfield with at least 300 passing  yards, two passing TDs and two picks. Mayfield comes off his lone two-pick game of the season in last Sunday's loss to New Orleans.

Almost impossibly, Carolina has not held a lead in the fourth quarter this season and is the first team to not hold a lead in the fourth quarter this late in a season in NFL history. Both Panthers wins have come as time expired.

Via SportsLine oddsmakers: Will Baker Mayfield be the Buccaneers' Week 1 starting QB in 2024?

• Yes -190
• No +160

Qualifying SportsLine members receive a 30-day free trial of Paramount+ Essential. Sync your account right here.