Buccaneers vs. Cardinals Christmas NFL odds, trends: Trace McSorley starts at quarterback, pushing Bucs to more than touchdown favorites on spread

The Arizona Cardinals were a playoff team last season and expected to contend for the postseason once again, and were set at over/under 8.5 wins before Opening Day. However, just about everything that could go wrong has, and the eliminated Cards (4-10) will now have to start third-string journeyman Trace McSorley at quarterback for a Christmas night home game vs. Tampa Bay. The Bucs were 3-point favorites as of last week but the spread has shot up to -7.5 at most sportsbooks with McSorley set to start.

In a Week 14 home loss to the Patriots, starting Arizona QB Kyler Murray went down just three plays into the game with a non-contact injury. The former No. 1 overall pick and Heisman winner tore his ACL and might miss the start of the 2023 season. Colt McCoy played decently in relief, but McCoy left last Sunday's 24-15 loss at Denver in the third quarter with a possible concussion and was just ruled out for this Sunday.

McSorley, a 2019 sixth-round pick by Baltimore out of Penn State, will get the call against Tampa Bay. The 27-year-old was 7-for-15 for 95 yards with two picks and a brutal rating of 27.8 in relief of McCoy vs. the Broncos. In his NFL career, McSorley is 18-for-39 (46.2%) for 256 yards, a TD and three picks for a rating of 44.4. Sunday will be his first-ever start. His backup will be David Blough, recently signed off the Minnesota practice squad.

At this point, it benefits the Cardinals to lose out and get the highest draft pick possible – they would currently pick fifth overall in 2023. Then again, losing out probably means head coach Kliff Kingsbury would be a goner -- if he's not already. GM Steve Keim is away from the team for undisclosed reasons and is not expected back. Both he and Kingsbury got contract extensions this summer.

The Bucs in theory could win the NFC South -- or have a top-10 pick in the 2023 draft depending on how the final three games go. They are -400 to win the division.

Tom Brady had one of the worst halves of his career this past Sunday when the Bucs blew a 17-3 halftime lead against Cincinnati and lost 34-23. Brady turned it over on four straight possessions, tying a career single-game high with those four giveaways overall.

Brady's next loss (if there is one) would clinch the first single-season losing record of his Hall of Fame career. Brady has gone 21 straight seasons as a starting QB without a losing record. The next-longest streak to begin a career is 13 by Brett Favre. With a loss Sunday, Arizona would be the only team he has a career losing record against (currently 1-1), including the playoffs.

Tampa Bay has the worst against-the-spread record in the league at 3-10-1. Those 10 ATS losses already tie a single-season high for Brady.

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