This is gonna be ugly.

Get yourself mentally prepared to hate-watch this Thursday night game. Because you don't have a choice to do it any other way. These two teams, with their limitations on offense, given who the quarterbacks are... well, they're not quite ready for primetime. But we're getting them anyway.

I have some questions about both of these clubs. Many questions. Most specifically, about this Browns defense, which has left me wanting more through two weeks. Is it really any good? And given the injury situation with their bookend pass rushers, is there even more cause for concern on this short week? Then again, can the Steelers really move the ball on anyone? It doesn't seem that way so far.

So I'm getting geared up for the worst. I'm looking long and hard at Unders and turnovers and, gulp, kickers. I reckon you should be, too. I don't love anything about this game, but here's where I'm leaning:

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Spread: Steelers +4.5

The Steelers have a dominant defense. They haven't conceded much of anything through two weeks and maybe, just maybe, their run defense isn't as bad as it was a year ago. They will be up for this game and even last year, when the Browns ran the ball as well as anyone and the Steelers couldn't stop anyone, Pittsburgh held the ground game in check. I do have a sense that the Browns will get some stuff going on play action here and there – more on that later – but the Steelers, even without T.J. Watt, will create problems for this limited offense and the Browns have some injury issues with their offensive line. Give me the points. The Steelers got 6.5 at Cincinnati – in Week 1 against a top offense – and 4.5 here? I'll take it.

Total: Under 38

Vegas can keep dipping this down further, I suppose, trying to induce people to play the Over. But at this spot right here, I have to go Under. The Steelers and Patriots just conspired to produce 31 total points. The Steelers got five takeaways in Week 1 and still needed five quarters (with OT) to muster 23 points. Unless there are a bunch of defensive scores, I like the Under.

Player Props

Amari Cooper to score TD (+190)

So that play action thing is real in the Kevin Stefanski offense and the Steelers still have some issues at corner (don't they always?) and Cooper can get it done with YAC, too. I'll take my chances with the best receiver in this limited offense.

Mitch Trubisky longest pass Under 32.5

Hasn't happened through two weeks. Yeah, the Steelers have weapons in the pass game, but Trubisky is also dead last in the NFL in yards per attempt and this offense isn't about the big play. Especially in a short week on the road against a divisional opponent, I don't see too many deep shots ahead.

Same-Game Parlay (+470) 

• Steelers +6.5
• Jacoby Brissett interception
• Chris Boswell Over 1.5 field goals

I call this The Hatewatch. Let's start with the Steelers +6.5, cuz, why not? If they go down, make it be by a touchdown. Jacoby Brissett to throw a pick? He did last week, the Steelers are fifth in the NFL in interception percentage (on defense), Minkah Fitzpatrick can go get it and their zone blitzes will lead to some tipped balls and pressure on a quarterback who is not particularly mobile, And while we're at it, give me Chris Bowell + 1.5 field goals. When the Steelers defense produces those short fields, the offense still can't really cash in. Boswell can kick from distance. Mike Tomlin will take a very conservative approach in these situations and lean into the kicking game. Boswell kicked two at Cincinnati in Week 1 and is good for two here.

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