I have set my expectations for this Thursday night footballing spectacle quite low. I hope you do as well.

If offensive majesty is your thing, well, you're probably out of luck. We have seen our fair share of prime time slogs, and this certainly looks like another to me. Neither offense has much of an identity, both are dealing with major issues at the running back position and for as much as Jonathan Taylor says he wants to play, in such a short week, I'm personally not banking on it.

In the best of times, with the best of offenses, the short week can bring out the worst in them. The Colts have started slowly, and, except for about a half against the Chiefs, they seem like one of the more disappointing teams in football. They share too much DNA with the outfit that faded into playoff oblivion a year ago and don't look like contenders this year. They have been out-muscled twice already this season (and also for the first half of the Texans game as well), and inspire great pause with me.

And as for the Broncos, well, the issues with their new operation have been well chronicled. So as you might have surmised, I am leaning hard into the over in this one. And there are a few other options that catch my eye as well.

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Spread: Broncos -3

I don't have a very strong feeling here. But this is the home team and having to play at altitude, on the road, coming off a physical division game, and in a short week seems like a tall order for this Colts team. They haven't looked great even in perfect conditions at home in a dome on normal rest. They couldn't run the ball on softer run defenses even with Taylor at full strength. Their offensive line has gone from core strength to cause for concern. And while they bowed up to potentially save their season a few weeks back against the Chiefs, this game is on the road and it took plenty of good fortune to survive Kansas City. Matt Ryan doesn't seem to have a true go-to guy in that offense (maybe Michael Pittman will get to full strength and become that), and I have concerns with an immobile quarterback against a top defense that is No. 7 in the NFL in sack percentage.

Total: Under 43

These teams on average combine for 30 points per game. Indianapolis ranks dead last in scoring, and 27th in yards per carry and 25th in yards per play. The Colts are 26th in the redzone and the Broncos are first in redzone defense. And the Colts, despite their injuries on defense, rank sixth in yards allowed per game, second in yards per carry and 10th in passing yards per game. Ryan isn't doing much of anything for Indianapolis and while Russell Wilson has improved from a dreadful start, the Broncos' offensive output has been tepid overall. Are we certain either team hits 20 points?

Player Props

Matt Ryan to throw an interception (-123)

You could get this at plus money last week, shockingly. That's no longer the case, but it still seems baked into this offensive cake. Ryan has the seventh-highest interception rate in the NFL, this secondary has oodles of talent and I expect him to be under considerable duress. 

Russell Wilson Over 14.5 rushing yards (-111)

Wilson obliterated this total last week (it was 7.5-8.5 depending where you shop), racking up 29 yards on the ground, continuing a trend that started in the second half of the Week 2 defeat of the 49ers (and that vaunted defense). Denver's tackle play has been suspect and I expect Russ to take and go against Cover-2 and Cover-3 looks more than just once or twice in this game. Patrick Mahomes ran for 26 yards against the Colts and with Javonte Williams out, I see Wilson picking up some of the slack on the ground in a non-traditional manner, with this Colts front so stout against the traditional ground game.

Brandon McManus Over 1.5 Field Goals (-113)

Denver has made some modest gains offensively since those horrible first few games, but this unit still ain't great. The Broncos are 30th in red zone touchdown efficiency. McManus loves the altitude and rookie head coach Nathaniel Hackett is now being advised in these situations by an old-school, long-time special coach (Jerry Rosburg) who worked for years with Justin Tucker and will embrace taking three when you can get it against an offensively-challenged opponent at home. McManus has attempted 10 field goals already (and made eight); 12 is the NFL high.

Same-Game Parlay (+440) 

• Ryan to throw INT
• McManus to kick two FGs
• Under alt total 45.5

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