Braves vs. Phillies NLDS Game 3 Wednesday probable pitchers, odds, trends: Mixed action despite Aaron Nola's strong numbers against Atlanta

There are three MLB Division Series games Wednesday, and the only series guaranteed not to end is Atlanta at Philadelphia in the National League, which is currently tied 1-1. The Phillies largely dominated the first two games of the series in Atlanta but blew a 4-0 lead and lost late in Game 2. Philadelphia appears to have the starting pitching edge today with Aaron Nola facing rookie AJ Smith-Shawver or Bryce Elder. The Phillies are -125 favorites on the SportsLine consensus, but there's mixed action thus far.

At DraftKings, 54% of handle is on the Phillies, but the Braves are taking 55% of the tickets. On the total of 9 runs, 67% of the handle is on the Over, but 52% of tickets have come in on the Under. The Phillies are taking majority leans at +1.5 (-192) on the run line, although that has flipped to Atlanta +1.5 at many other books.

When a Division Series with the current 2-2-1 format has been tied after two games, the club heading home for Games 3 and 4 has won the series 28 of 42 times (67%). That includes last year's NLDS between these two clubs, when Philadelphia won both contests at Citizens Bank Park to advance to the NLCS. Philadelphia has a 24-11 postseason record all-time at the Bank. The .686 win rate is the best in the playoffs for any team in any park (minimum 20 games).

The righty Nola had a bit of an uneven regular season at 12-9 with a 4.46 ERA, but pitched seven scoreless innings against Miami in Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series last Wednesday. He is 1-0 with a 1.37 ERA in his last three starts, striking out 19 and walking one in 19 2/3 innings. Nola has a 3.50 ERA in three starts this season against the Braves and is 12-3 with a 2.59 ERA in 18 career starts against them at Citizens Bank Park.

After the Braves hit Nola hard in an 8-5 Atlanta win on May 25, they totaled just two runs on eight hits with two walks and 13 strikeouts in Nola's other two starts against them this year. He beat Atlanta in Game 3 of the 2022 NLDS at home, allowing one unearned run over six. Two key Braves do hammer Nola: Austin Riley, who hit the epic go-ahead homer in Game 2, is a .389 hitter off him with five homers and five doubles in 54 at-bats, and likely NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. is 16-for-49 off Nola with five doubles and four homers.

While there was never any question who would start Game 3 for the Phillies, the Braves waited until about an hour ago to announce theirs. It was expected to be Smith-Shawver over Elder, an All-Star who seemed to tire down the stretch. Elder yielded 13 earned runs in 12.1 innings over his final three outings but will start Wednesday. He had a 3.53 ERA and 0-0 record in two starts this year vs. the Phillies and was 5-3 with a 4.05 ERA in 14 road starts. It's his playoff debut. 

The 20-year-old Smith-Shawver is one of the top pitching prospects in the majors and was 1-0 with a 4.26 ERA in 25.1 big-league innings. He began the year in High-A and reached the Majors by late May. Smith-Shawver didn't face the Phillies, so he probably will be the first call of Braves manager Brian Snitker if/when Elder struggles. This normally would be Charlie Morton's spot in the rotation for Atlanta, but he will miss the NLDS because of a right index finger sprain suffered on Sept. 22. 

The most popular player prop from this game at DK is Bryce Harper to homer at +320 followed by Atlanta's Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI at -135. Harper homered in Game 1 but is 0-for-4 career vs. Elder and hasn't faced Smith-Shawver. 

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