The Atlanta Braves will look to earn a split of their key four-game series with the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday Night Baseball. Philadelphia has won two of the first three games of the series, including a 3-0 win on Saturday night. The Braves (74-62), who are second in the National League East, are 38-34 on the road in 2024. The Phillies (80-56), first in the NL East, six games ahead of Atlanta, are 46-25 at home this season.

First pitch from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. The Phillies are the -130 money-line favorites (risk $130 to win $100) in the latest Braves vs. Phillies odds, while the Braves are +110 underdogs. The over/under for total runs scored is 8 in the latest MLB odds via SportsLine consensus. 

Before you make any Braves vs. Phillies picks or MLB predictions, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. Entering Week 23 of the MLB season, it's on a 29-13 roll on top-rated run-line picks (+1010) that dates back to last season. Anybody following has seen STRONG returns!

The model knows Philadelphia is expected to send right-hander Aaron Nola (12-6, 3:30 ERA) to the mound. He will be making his 28th start of the year. In 166.1 innings of work, Nola has allowed 151 hits, 61 earned runs and 42 walks, while striking out 153. In his last outing, he picked up a win in a 5-0 victory over the Houston Astros on Tuesday. He pitched seven innings, allowing four hits and one walk, while striking out six. In 36 career starts against the Braves, he is 16-11 with a 3.60 ERA.

The model also knows right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach (5-6, 3.72 ERA) will start for Atlanta. Schwellenbach has made 15 starts this season, pitching 87 innings and allowing 75 hits, 36 earned runs and 18 walks with 102 strikeouts. He has won two of his last three decisions and is 2-0 against the Phillies this season. In his last win, a 3-2 triumph over Philadelphia on Aug. 22, he pitched 6.2 innings, allowing three hits, two earned runs and one walk, while striking out nine.

The model has simulated Braves vs. Phillies 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you the model is leaning Over on the run total, and it also says one side of the money line has ALL the value!

Who wins Braves vs. Phillies, and which side of the money line has ALL the value? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the money line you should be all over, all from the model on a 29-13 roll on top-rated MLB run-line picks!